I'm pretty such each newbie is wondering how much can be earned through arbitrage betting, so I've done some calculations and I would like you to tell me (maybe in private if you don't want to say it publicly?) what is your opinion on that matter.
As I've seen on a alert service website :
Quite promising, isn't it?Prematch : ROI will be around 10% per month. [bankroll 2,000-> 200 per month.] In-play : ROI will be around 30% if you play 1-2 hours a day and more in weekends [Bankroll 3,000 -> 1,000 per month]
So here are my 2 calculations with very different options.
1. Common assumptions
- -in-play can be more rewarding and will let you play longer before you are blocked/gubbed/limited. So I will only speak of IN-PLAY. First question : is that assumption true?
-I bet only on major football competitions (international + Italy, Spain, UK, France, Germany best national competition)
-let's say that there are 5 successive matches on Saturdays, 4 on Sundays, and 3 during other days. (So I can bet on each of them with my whole bankroll)
-I registered 12-15 books
-my average stake is 200€/£/$ (in order to avoid being spotted, and because I'll be limited in soft bookies one day so...
-my bank roll is 20,000€/$/£
-my average arb will be 3,5% (again to avoid palp and not to be spotted too quickly)
- -In order to avoid being spotted by a book, I never bet twice on same match with same soft book. -> Second question: is it something to respect of no soft books will bother if I bet several time on the same team or... maybe even the opposite one?
-During a match I will take only 3 different arb opportunities because of the previous limitation. -> Third question : Will I get as many arbs or much more involving most of my soft books?
12 matches a week, 4*12=48 per month -> 12*4*21= 1,008€/$/£ per month.
Minus commissions, taxes, arb service cost and other expenses (including arb mistakes), it might be just enough to pay my daily food.
3. Second calculation
- -I manage to spend 75% of my bankroll on each match either using big stakes or betting several times on same match with same book (including betting against and for one team depending on the arb). Fourth question -> What would be the best option to maximise my gains while avoiding being caught to quickly?
This is because I might not get enough arbs or because match are overlapping a bit or because I get distracted....
12 matches a week, 4*12=48 per month -> 12*4*525 = 25.200€/$/£ per month
(But instead of 3 bets on each match, I'll have to place 75 arbs on each match [stake of 200€] or 3 arbs with 5.000€ stakes.)
NB. 75 arbs on a match means I need to place an arb every 90 seconds...
What a difference !
What are your comments on these calculations, what could be better assumptions?
Would it be better to take high stakes, then to close the book accounts that are limited, opening new ones elsewhere and coming back after one year (more?) to the first ones ? But that would mean doing that everyday or week?
PS. Please don't just say that earnings will be 'in between'