How do they know?

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Moss
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Moss

How do they know?
« on: May 16, 2017, 09:49:32 AM »

Hi everyone.

Could someone shed some light on a question I have been asking myself for the last few days, which is....How do Bookies know you are an Arber?

I can understand that if you only won all of the bets you place, then that would raise suspicion, however, by definition if you are placing an arb, one of the bets is going to lose. My thoughts are that as long as you keep an eye on your betting log to ensure that by coincidence you are not having a disproportionate amount of wins with one particular bookie, what will raise their suspicions that you are not just a regular punter who wins some and loses some?

Any thought will be gratefully received.

 
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Alfa1234
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Re: How do they know?
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2017, 11:21:10 AM »

If you bet arbs, you are betting odds that are above the market average (higher than exchange odds or Pinnacle odds).  Those odds will usually drop quickly after you bet them so all they have to do is check the history of the odds you bet and see that a large majority of them dropped after you placed your bets.

By betting arbs, you will be a long time winner because the odds you bet have a higher probability of winning than the payout they represent.  So e.g. you are constantly betting on something with a 50% win probability but with a payout above 2...which will make you win long term.  Look up value betting to understand this better.
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Moss
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Moss

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2017, 11:27:08 AM »

Many thanks Alfa. Very helpful.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2017, 04:30:52 PM »

Actually if i would be bookie trader it would be so easy to spot arber.

I think when regular gambler hits lines. 99% of them mayby 99.9% are shit odds.

And if new client
a)first bet is arb
b) 2 of 3 bets are arb
c) 5 of 10 bets are arb?
That the soft part
But 3 out of 3 are arbs?



U dont have to be mathematical genius to do some conculsions. Actually i even suprised bookies dont limit even more faster!


Im working on a model where algorithm dont red flag and manual incpection isnt so easy to say he is arber. Tests are so far quite good
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akujieze
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akujieze

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2017, 09:28:39 PM »

Bro can you put me on our test List? Thanks
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2017, 07:50:09 AM »

Im working on a model where algorithm dont red flag and manual incpection isnt so easy to say he is arber. Tests are so far quite good

Manual inspections come at a very late stage and when bookmaker is already determined to confiscate your money. I believe you should do more in regards to automatic inspections.
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showMeDaMoney
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showMeDaMoney

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2017, 09:00:44 PM »

Its very rare for a bookmaker to confiscate money.
maybe 2%
because that is illegal and in addition, no bookmaker wants their sportsbook ratings to drop.

The model to avoid getting limited is to have a system that will lose money but not overall profit. You can do this via websites that offer tips.
You'll find in the long run that most of these may offer a 2% to -2% ROI
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2017, 04:14:38 PM »

PowerBet.io will freeze your withdrawals if they suspect you are an arber, or even a fairly "sharp" bettor, or even if you go on a lucky win streak!
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Al45
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Al45

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2017, 07:29:18 PM »

bet-at-home.com and expekt.com does the same thing as mentioned PowerBet.io
if they suspect you are arber, and/or bonus hunter, they will ask documents and won't unlock an account. I do not bet there personally (do not like small bookies), but my family member do, they asked his ID, which he sent, and verification went OK. later on, they wanted selfie with ID next to face, since he shot too low quality selfie, I did take a DSLR photo of him myself, and they said the ID on the photo is fake (he was holding the very same ID they verified back then). His lawyer is working on it, and will see results soon. I have to ask if there is any news on the case.
Not to mention 10bet.com who did revoke my winning stake(s), and took my bonus, but since I don't care, I don't care.
So yes, it happens from time to time. They do not care for forums, they only want to feed their shareholders. Simple as that..
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showMeDaMoney
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showMeDaMoney

Re: How do they know?
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2017, 07:19:17 AM »

Wow, looks like need to avoid these two companies.
Well actually they are banned in my country, so I can't really play them anyway.

bet-at-home.com and expekt.com
- expekt is a clone site of betclic

Strange because they are both C- on sbr.

I recommend if its happened to more people to submit your reviews.
--> https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-sites/

At least others may not fall into same trap.
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