# value betting using pinnacle

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Kosmas89
Newbie

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« on: November 24, 2017, 09:56:58 AM »

Hi guys, so far  i though that value betting ("using" pinnacle) is to find an arb and  just dont cover the pinnacle part.  i.e.  a two way game, with odds in pinnacle 1.81- 2.137  (2% juice)
and you find in a soft 2.35 odds (instead of 2.137)  so the set of odds is now 2.35 (soft) and pinnacle 1.81  = 2.25 % arb .  so this 2.35 is an great value bet ...

My question is if a soft book has better odds in a particular event/bet  than pinnacle but there is not an arb with these odds.   i.e same odds like above , 2 way game 2.137 - 1.81 pinnacle odds with 2% juice . and one soft book offer  the first bet (2.137) with odds 2.20 .   if you try to arbitrage 2.2 and 1.81  you will have  -0,7% arb BUT what will happen if you play 2.20 alone (2.137 in pinnacle) ? That consider a value bet or No?  And stays under the radar  or not.
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testez
Has some experience

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Posts: 142

« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2017, 02:19:15 PM »

if you take as true the general accepted concept that you have to beat the pinny(sharp) closing line(+margins) to make profit on the long run,

you are correct. it doesnt have to be an arb for that odd to have value. value doesnt come from the arb itself but from the difference between the the odds(ie 2.137 and soft odd)
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Kosmas89
Newbie

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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2017, 02:23:11 PM »

thanks for the answer, so, this kind of value betting  stays under  soft radar or not?
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testez
Has some experience

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Posts: 142

« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2017, 02:35:56 PM »

i dont think so..

the only pro/con i see thats important is that you can raise your volume by a lot(compared to arb version) but ur return will be lower. ofc you can play with the numbers and add some margins to the odds you would like to take..
i think it all depends on your experience and BM. Even with the arb version, variance can be tough. going this route it could be way tougher.
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Kosmas89
Newbie

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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2017, 03:09:46 PM »

thanks for the advice , but im not gonna do something like that, i was curious for my own reasons , if you bet something 1.75 when pinny have the same bet 1.72   or even lower 1.70 , if this considered value betting by the community and if it stays under bookmaker radar.
Im not gonna do it  any time soon, so i dont care about the possibly results
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testez
Has some experience

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Posts: 142

« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2017, 04:01:35 PM »

you know, for bonuses, people use -%arbs to clear the required rollovers.
and negatives arbes are exactely what you are saying
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Alfa1234
Pro

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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2017, 04:18:41 PM »

You should read the forum, this has been explained many times.

If you bet on an odd of 1.75 and Pinnacle has 1.72...why would this be a value bet?  If Pinnacle has a margin of 5%, you are not betting value at all.

You have to add the Pinnacle margin/juice to calculate the real odd/probability first before you consider an odd to have value.

Let's say Pinnacle has 2 tennis players of a match priced at 1.909.  Both have a 50% probability of winning the game.   Does an odd of 1.99 at a soft book have value?  No!  Of course not.  For it to have value, you would have to find an odd over 2.0 because you will only win that bet half the time.  If you find an odd of 2.05 in a soft, it's not an arb but it does hold value.  You'll still get flagged and banned eventually though.
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Kosmas89
Newbie

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Posts: 27

« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2017, 04:32:20 PM »

yeah i pretty much talk about negative arbs, but all the soft bookmaker see is that i bet something with same or better odds vs pinnacle, does that make them suspicious? Thats the important question from me
The part about if this is value betting is clear for me now, thanks
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Malteser
Newbie

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