Please help me hedge this position

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naza
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naza

Please help me hedge this position
« on: December 16, 2017, 09:04:58 AM »

Hello guys,

I accidently place a Lay of 44.32EUR at 6.4 on Hoffenheim.
It's a Bundesliga match: Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim.

Well it's not possible to cancel the lay, so I would like you to help me place a position against this lay so the PnL = 0

The issue are the following:
- my liability for the lay is 239,33EUR
- odds for a back of Dortmund are low: 1.549

I'm not sure if its possible to hedge this situation...
Thanks for your help
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Thordin
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Thordin

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2017, 09:13:07 AM »

err just back Hoffenheim at 6.4
You dont even need a balance to do that
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naza
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naza

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2017, 09:19:39 AM »

So simple  :D
Thanks for your help !
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2017, 09:25:54 AM »

So simple  :D
Thanks for your help !

Hey Naza, maybe you need to study and practise some more before moving to larger bets.
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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2017, 01:53:17 PM »

Naza keep reading and watch some youtube videos from professional betfair traders.This will helps you a lot. ;)
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naza
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naza

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2017, 11:05:47 PM »

Hello guys !

Thanks all for your help and comments. Actually I'm a value better rather than arbitrage or trader. I wanted to place a value bet but got it wrong when I wanted to be too quick..

Well, I think, it will be useful to learn arbitrage basics even if I dont plan to do it. In some cases, it can definitely help ;)
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DPG
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Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2017, 12:12:29 PM »

Laying Hoffenheim to an out of form Dortmund isn't a value bet!

The pre match odds on Hoffenheim shortened just before kick off. Hoffenheim took the lead in this match before a penalty and a last minute winner for Dortmund.
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naza
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naza

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2017, 12:19:46 PM »

Laying Hoffenheim to an out of form Dortmund isn't a value bet!

The pre match odds on Hoffenheim shortened just before kick off. Hoffenheim took the lead in this match before a penalty and a last minute winner for Dortmund.


Well, i dont remember which odds I got for the lay, but it was value according to the probabilities of Hoffenheim winning the match.
But, we will always have different opinions on if it was value or not. The most important thing is to see it long term over x number of trades, if the strategy is sustainable and consistantly brings value.
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2017, 12:29:48 PM »

If you are consistently laying teams at an exchange it's highly doubtfull you are betting long term value.  You should take the closing odds into account as they represent the true probability of the event happening in large leagues.
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barbero
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barbero

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2017, 01:15:04 PM »

The fact that he was backing or laying should not have much to do with it being a value or not, or his strategy (whatever it is) a good or bad one, right? :)

But closing odds do, certainly.

On the other hand how the match developed is no proof or even hint whatsoever of it being a valuebet or not. That's just how the match went and there's no conclusions to extract from it. Gotta avoid being ROTty (Results Oriented Thinking) at all costs.
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DPG
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DPG

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2017, 01:20:40 PM »

You obtain value on a bet if you can beat the closing odds. In your opening post you said you layed Hoffenheim at 6.4 and it started at 6.00 if I recall correctly. Definitely not a value bet.

Anyway Dortmund have been losing games they shouldn't have this season compared to previous years. Already out of the champions league and 1 of their main strikers Max Philip was out injured for this match.
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naza
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naza

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2017, 03:28:20 PM »

yes ! not sure why you compare the odd I got vs the opening odd ?

So if we compare closing odds for this lay, I got 6.4 on the lay, and the closing odd was 5.4 on Matchbook.
Definitely not value for this trade, BUT, it's important to beat closing line on the long term, not with each and single trade.

Here are some examples of some lays I took the past days:

Ligue 1: Monaco vs Renne: Lay renne at 9.2, and closing was 9.6. So got value here.
Premier League: Everton vs Swansea: Lay swansea at 6 and closing 5.8. No value here
La Liga: Eibar vs Valencia: Lay valencia at 2.74 and closing was 2.88. So got value here.
Premier League: Watford vs Huddersfield. Lay Huddersfield at 5.5 and closing was 5.8. So got value here.
Premier League: Leicester vs Crystal Palace. Lay Crystal Palace at 4.85 and closing was 5.6. So got value here.

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DPG
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DPG

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2017, 04:12:18 PM »


Sorry, when I said it started at 6.00, I meant when the match started it was at 6.00ish, or perhaps even lower as you said 5.4 on matchbook. I use smarkets as my main exchange.
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naza
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naza

Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2017, 04:13:02 PM »

I'll use the same topic instead of creating a new one because there's something I don't understand in live.

In a match where the score is 0-1 in favor of the team 2, an AH +0.5 in live to bet to the winning team mean ?


thanks in advance for your answers guys
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 04:16:45 PM by naza » Logged
Kosmas89
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Re: Please help me hedge this position
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2017, 04:40:52 PM »

im pretty sure that asian handicap in live is for the rest of the match, so if you bet +0,5 in the winning team, you expect to maintain their lead till the end...
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