Captain's log 2017

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Arbusers
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Captain's log 2017
« on: December 17, 2017, 03:21:48 PM »



This is the arbusers.com annual review of the sports arbitrage and trading scene for the year 2017.
It is conducted in good will with hope it will contribute to the understanding of these particular fields. We ll try to post a similar review each year so we have a time lapse of the smart gambling scene. We advise that you take a look at the review of the previous year in our forum or youtube channel.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4609.msg53922.html#msg53922

The use of the word Captain has no intention to imply that I m the chief or the leading character of this community that expands beyond this forum. I encourage all members to post their opinion and thus contribute to this effort.

Now lets examine the main forms of arbitrage and smart gambling and see how they performed during the year.
Pre game arbitrage is decaying. We came to the point where pre game arbitrage is not paying back according to the invested time, intelligence and efforts. It can only be used for educational reasons as a step before jumping to other forms of smart gambling.
Live arbitrage proves to be more resilient and became very popular these last years. Live arbitrage guarantees that bookmaker’s accounts will last more and will offer a better profit/hour outcome than pre-game arbing. Even though we expect bookmakers to adopt more hostile action against live arbitrage traders players, the overall situation shows that live arbitrage has more way to go and more profits to give. We expect live arbitrage to stay alive for some more years.
Value betting is accelerating and more players are jumping in. Software providers are offering many tailor made solutions allowing players to exploit certain bookmakers and markets. Alert services are reacting accordingly. Bots are now taking more action and this trend is irreversible. A key element for bots is the right filtering of markets, odds and bookmakers. It is now clear that classic mathematics that compare the closing lines of sharp bookmakers with higher odds provided by soft bookmakers is a good but not the best way to go. Players using bots, must be based on observation and analysis of markets in order to achieve the best possible performance. Bookmakers and exchanges are still bleeding as they run out of good ideas to tackle bots. We are informed that lavish contracts have been awarded to software providers in order to tackle the use of bots. We expect to see their results in the coming months. As a last line of defence bookmakers could limit and neutralise accounts not allowing them to continue betting. On the other hand it seems that a growing number of players are depended on the use of bots that now became their only source of profits. We urge these players to search for alternative ways of smart gambling before kicked out of business when previous mentioned contracts materialise to results.
The crown of all smart gambling action remains the arbitrage among sharp books only with the use of bots. We invested a lot of time and effort to analyse the performance of several bots. As new players are jumping in this market, the average arb is going down. We estimate that the average arb of 2016 with the use of bots and sharp bookmakers was near 0.18%. For 2017, the average arb is around 0.14% forcing players to place larger bets and search for bigger limits than those provided by sharp bookmakers, in order to maintain the same level of profits. This form of smart gambling is the one that pays a well deserved dividend to the players, who enjoy the fruits of their ingeniousness.
Casino advantage gamblers are also feeling the pressure, as bonuses are getting lower and e-wallets are not a preferred method of depositing.

All exchanges with no exception are looking for ‘’happy losers’’ and ways to make more money by transforming arbers and smart gamblers to long term losers. Their efforts did not materialise to profits during 2017.  On the contrary all parties lost. Exchanges are now expanding to white label products in order to gain some of the lost ground.

The regulation of the markets continues and will continue. During 2017 the Czech market was regulated creating problems to arbers and traders from that country.

E-wallets are becoming more expensive and many players are leaving them, jumping to the cryptocurrency world. E-wallets and payment processors now understand this trend, but their thirst for profit is not allowing them to reduce their margins. Cash will become even more scarce and expensive. Cryptocurrencies, banks and Hawala systems will take more action and reduce the significance of e-wallets. C level managers understood that cryptocurrencies are now stronger than ever, but they fail to understand that Hawala systems are also becoming stronger year by year.
As stated in the previous review, many actors are becoming more greedy, regulating markets and implementing policies and tactics against all players, disguising their insatiable thirst for taxes and profits behind the moral curtains of responsible gambling, tax evasion and avoidance, and money laundering. There is no doubt that this phenomena are present in the gambling world, but putting everyone in the meat grinder is unfair, undermining genuine successful long term actions. Many court decisions during 2017 were against players who used any kind of advantage to beat bookmakers and casinos. We are not happy with this.

This year more players reported that they didn't have a personal best. This is a trend that started in 2016 and now accelerating.

Locusts continue destroying the industry. These are a group of players under the guidance of bigger players attacking to any possible source of profit to suck as more capital as they can in very short time. We now see locusts jumping to the bot industry, attacking very specific bookmakers that in the end will have to react violently in order to protect their interests. As many people are now depending on bots, locusts are bringing the expiration date of many bots closer. We fear that many players will stop business abruptly when a couple of bookmakers tackles bots.

A large part of our previous review was dedicated in the low business ethics of several actors of the industry. We regret to see more actors of the industry adopting unethical tactics and that includes a number of players. We consider that a proportion of profits should be set aside for legal fees.

2017 was another difficult year added in the chain but also it was the year that profits sifted from manual to automatic arbing and trading. Let’s see how long this trend stays alive and what is going to replace it.

I wrote this annual review in good will, hoping that it will contribute to the understanding of this very particular field of arbitrage and smart gambling.

Thank you for reading.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2017, 03:48:46 PM »

Interesting review and I agree with most of it, although I did have another personal best this year.  I find that whenever a door (or opportunity) closes, there are several others options available to take it's place.
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ilovethisforum
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2017, 04:35:24 PM »

Thanks for this years review Arbusers. I found the video very helpfull add on!

I would like to add one thing.Because of the blockchain technology and the decentralized focus in it, i believe that the traditional bookies days are numbered.There are many projects and apps out there which they are trying to create a decentralized betting exchange working with cryptocurrencies. All projects are in alpha or beta stage of development.They have an huge load of work to do in order to compete with traditional soft bookies and create an app that is easy to use from recreational players.The thing is that someone will make it happen sooner or later and i would like to see then what the bookies and the regulators will do.They cannot touch a decentralized app because it is on the internet and has no residency.Many of these apps use an non-profit organisation in order to support the app.This ensures that they have no company on any country which can touch them.The profits are distributed automatically from commitions using their own coin!Let's see what will happen in the near future.
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Arbusers
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2017, 05:08:47 PM »

Interesting review and I agree with most of it, although I did have another personal best this year.  I find that whenever a door (or opportunity) closes, there are several others options available to take it's place.

The thing is that these business are very much dependent on each and everyone's circumstances. Some people are luckier than others, some people live in very aggressive towards gambling countries, and in the end, some people are keeping their eyes open and their antennas up to the sky being able to identify chances, while others are expecting chances to knock down their door.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 06:24:50 PM by Arbusers » Logged
Arbusers
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2017, 05:13:58 PM »

You are right ilovethisforum. We see volumes getting away from traditional bookmakers to cryptocurrency bookmakers. I am not sure if this is an advantage or disadvantage of the smart gambling action. It will take some time until we are able to determine.
But...

Because of the blockchain technology

Even though Blockchain technology is offering tremendous opportunities, it is blockchain itself that might be an obstacle. I m afraid the vast majority of people do not realise this and this includes the majority of people investing in cryptocurrencies.
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Thordin
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2017, 06:48:59 PM »

Many court decisions during 2017 were against players who used any kind of advantage to beat bookmakers and casinos. We are not happy with this.
We consider that a proportion of profits should be set aside for legal fees.

What is that all about?
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Arbusers
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2017, 07:07:24 PM »

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41751208
That was probably the biggest case this year but there are several smaller cases against the players.
The smart gambling scene is getting tougher and tougher each year and many actors are going to extremes in order to protect their interests. (See low business ethics part). A quick example, with out mentioning names, we now see a major high street bookmaker confiscating balances and cutting all communications with players when they have the slightest suspicion of smart gambling. That was unthinkable 1 or 2 years ago. This bookmaker is now only replying to solicitors and law firms.
I would keep aside 15% of profits each year for legal fees, only to release them when nearing the end of career.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 07:34:52 PM by Arbusers » Logged
ilovethisforum
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2017, 07:59:02 PM »


Even though Blockchain technology is offering tremendous opportunities, it is blockchain itself that might be an obstacle. I m afraid the vast majority of people do not realise this and this includes the majority of people investing in cryptocurrencies.

I am talking about totally decentralized apps.Bookies that accept BTC or another cryptocurrency isn't a decentralize app.There are projects that they doesn't need to deposit your cryptos to a company's address.The whole story works like this:

1)You connect your crypto wallet with the app
2)After that you creating a smart contract that says for example i want to bet 0.1 BTC to Over 2.5 and then you wait for someone to take your bet.
3)If someone wants to lay your bet then the smart contract takes your money and the money of the other player.
4)When the match finish the smart contract sends the amount to the winner and the commission to the company's address.

Ofcourse there are more steps in this,i just tell the summary.
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mikler
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2017, 09:19:16 PM »


We are informed that lavish contracts have been awarded to software providers in order to tackle the use of bots.

Hard to believe that as this can be done easily now by the bookies. Why is this not the case, well...
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SticyBandit
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2017, 01:45:34 AM »


Even though Blockchain technology is offering tremendous opportunities, it is blockchain itself that might be an obstacle. I m afraid the vast majority of people do not realise this and this includes the majority of people investing in cryptocurrencies.

I am talking about totally decentralized apps.Bookies that accept BTC or another cryptocurrency isn't a decentralize app.There are projects that they doesn't need to deposit your cryptos to a company's address.The whole story works like this:

1)You connect your crypto wallet with the app
2)After that you creating a smart contract that says for example i want to bet 0.1 BTC to Over 2.5 and then you wait for someone to take your bet.
3)If someone wants to lay your bet then the smart contract takes your money and the money of the other player.
4)When the match finish the smart contract sends the amount to the winner and the commission to the company's address.

Ofcourse there are more steps in this,i just tell the summary.

And you are saying all this by knowing how fast are BTC transactions from wallet to wallet?
Or you are not aware of this?

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Alfa1234
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2017, 09:35:18 AM »


Even though Blockchain technology is offering tremendous opportunities, it is blockchain itself that might be an obstacle. I m afraid the vast majority of people do not realise this and this includes the majority of people investing in cryptocurrencies.

I am talking about totally decentralized apps.Bookies that accept BTC or another cryptocurrency isn't a decentralize app.There are projects that they doesn't need to deposit your cryptos to a company's address.The whole story works like this:

1)You connect your crypto wallet with the app
2)After that you creating a smart contract that says for example i want to bet 0.1 BTC to Over 2.5 and then you wait for someone to take your bet.
3)If someone wants to lay your bet then the smart contract takes your money and the money of the other player.
4)When the match finish the smart contract sends the amount to the winner and the commission to the company's address.

Ofcourse there are more steps in this,i just tell the summary.

And you are saying all this by knowing how fast are BTC transactions from wallet to wallet?
Or you are not aware of this?

It's the underlying technology of the blockchain that is used, this has nothing to do with the time a BTC transaction takes to be confirmed.  The latter is dependant upon the speed of miners mining another block.
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yorkjoss
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2017, 01:23:09 PM »

you're still going on about these locusts arbuser, you shouldn't be criticising guys for maximising profit, it's hypocritical of you

as for your captain's log, your large ego is of course at work again, I've not watched the video but read your words
and don't understand a big part of it, haven't got a clue what you're talking about.

yes I'm old and will leave all your fancy words to the younger guys and good for them if they can profit from all these
new ways evolving as technology develops.

but you undermine old fashioned arbing, still profitable, you need the foundations which a lot of the new guys don't have
and sadly for them never will, large bank balance, decent manual arbing skills, friends and family they can trust, you have these
you'll make money and that has never changed.

personally i lack motivation maybe been doing this too long and brain is tired but I am still just short of last years record total
and that is with honestly not really having a clue what you're talking about in a lot of your captain's log, I have no doubt there are ways to make very large sums, I'll leave that to the younger, smarter guys and concentrate on old fashioned arbing.



« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 01:33:39 PM by yorkjoss » Logged
campeones
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2017, 08:59:03 AM »

This year more players reported that they didn't have a personal best. This is a trend that started in 2016 and now accelerating.

You have to go to extremes and pursue every chance appearing anywhere in the world to maintain profits. I m speaking with several people from all over and here is what I can report.
Romania (home country) is dead from arbing's point of view. People are moving to locals and some of them are already finding new chances brought by regulation. Money is not that easy to be made like before.
Spain (2nd home) is dead for some years now.
Colombia and South America (newest home) is flourishing. Unbelievable chances in a Virgin land. I m starting to feel like Columbus.
UK (most friends) is dying fast. This is not the time to take 5k in bonus, nor arb like no tomorrow in StanJames and WillHill, not to run into a Betfred and Ladbrokes shop to place 1000s bets.
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blackjack
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2018, 10:38:42 AM »

I understand this video can not get into details and it is wise not to do so as it would be opening the eyes of several bookmakers. stopping bots manually is not an easy task as this will require to set filters of a certain behaviour. On the other hand a bot can also be set in a way resembling human activity. Bots built by software companies without consultation from an experienced player will in the end fail. Custom made bots built with the help of players will live longer and definitely will not be the crummy spearheads.
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neopas
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Re: Captain's log 2017
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2018, 09:41:48 AM »

You have some experience in this blackjack, but what if a bookmaker decides to decapitate all winning accounts? What if they are able to identify trends and winning strategies? Even if bot's activity resembles to normal player's behaviour?
Thank you.
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