Even though I love long term arbs, I would avoid taking any arb for the US election for a 2-3% performance.
Long term arbs are usually allowing a bigger amount of money and some times offer performances that could not be found in any other investment.
But these US elections are poisoned so much that anything would happen. A constitutional diversion would blow anything up, including our well placed arbs. Some may say, these things do not happen in real life, but let's get back to Gerald Ford, the only non elected POTUS. No bet could possibly include him as the next US president.
Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
- arbusers
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- barnstorm
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
Good point about this uncertain election. You money could get held up for weeks. And if I did put one in, I would put it in for Democrat or Republican winner, not Trump or Biden, just in case one of them gets derailed in some way or another - health, scandal or legal issues.arbusers wrote: Even though I love long term arbs, I would avoid taking any arb for the US election for a 2-3% performance.
Long term arbs are usually allowing a bigger amount of money and some times offer performances that could not be found in any other investment.
But these US elections are poisoned so much that anything would happen. A constitutional diversion would blow anything up, including our well placed arbs. Some may say, these things do not happen in real life, but let's get back to Gerald Ford, the only non elected POTUS. No bet could possibly include him as the next US president.
- arbusers
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
I believe there is some value, betting for the next POTUS with the following names:
Nancy Pelosi
Chuck Grassley
Mike Pompeo
Steven Mnuchin
With this exact order. Makes no sense betting on names like Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, etc who have absolutely no constitutional position in the US hierarchy.
Nancy Pelosi
Chuck Grassley
Mike Pompeo
Steven Mnuchin
With this exact order. Makes no sense betting on names like Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, etc who have absolutely no constitutional position in the US hierarchy.
- neopas
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
If Pence and Biden are also sick, I will suppose that you knew something.
- barnstorm
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
Wow. Amazing call. Pence or Pelosi could very well become President at least temporarily. I wonder if all markets have adjusted for this.
Crazy times.
Crazy times.
- barnstorm
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
Many Sportsbooks have taken their political wagers down. Check your books and see if they are still offering odds.
PredictIt is still up and Biden is now at 66 cents. Democrat winner is now at 72 cents.
PredictIt is still up and Biden is now at 66 cents. Democrat winner is now at 72 cents.
- arbusers
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However, they said they will bring it back ASAP.
Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
This includes and the exchanges. So I am really wondering why an exchange like Smarkets took down this event. I see no reason unless...barnstorm wrote: Many Sportsbooks have taken their political wagers down. Check your books and see if they are still offering odds.
PredictIt is still up and Biden is now at 66 cents. Democrat winner is now at 72 cents.
However, they said they will bring it back ASAP.
- arbusers
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
Pence is negative, sources say.neopas wrote: If Pence and Biden are also sick, I will suppose that you knew something.
- barnstorm
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
FWIW: Current odds and best arb possibility. Better to bet on the party to win rather than the man, as either of these old dudes might not make it. And as has been pointed out, it could take days or weeks to do the final count, although it is looking more and more like a decisive Biden/Democrat win.
MyBookie has the best odds on Biden at -170 (1.60)
Matchbook has Trump at +198 (2.98)
Betfair has Trump at +188 (2.88)
Bookmaker/BetCris has Trump at +184 (2.84)
MyBookie has the best odds on Biden at -170 (1.60)
Matchbook has Trump at +198 (2.98)
Betfair has Trump at +188 (2.88)
Bookmaker/BetCris has Trump at +184 (2.84)
- barnstorm
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
The Economist now says 95% chance for Biden. That translates to -1900!
538 says 87% chance for Biden. That translates to -670
PredictIt! only says 64% chance for Biden. That translates to only -178
Biden at:
Betfair 1.44 or -227
Pinnacle 1.47 or -213
BetOnline 1.5 or -200
MyBookie 1.61 or -165!!!!
538 says 87% chance for Biden. That translates to -670
PredictIt! only says 64% chance for Biden. That translates to only -178
Biden at:
Betfair 1.44 or -227
Pinnacle 1.47 or -213
BetOnline 1.5 or -200
MyBookie 1.61 or -165!!!!
- arbusers
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
IMV I would not base any arbitrage action on what the mainstream media believes. There is a certainty that all these media have an agenda, the agenda of the interests of their owners. These interests are economic and political, but mainly economic.
Take a look back at the 2016 elections and what these media were telling us about who was the favorite who was not.
We are only a week away from the elections, odds will become tighter, and % of arbs will be smaller. Those who are ready for it should place their bets now. It is a 7-8% arb, provided that no constitutional derailment takes place.
Take a look back at the 2016 elections and what these media were telling us about who was the favorite who was not.
We are only a week away from the elections, odds will become tighter, and % of arbs will be smaller. Those who are ready for it should place their bets now. It is a 7-8% arb, provided that no constitutional derailment takes place.
- ISIN
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
You can bet Biden having won the popular vote, 1.02 odds at Betfair, which in my book is 100% safe bet even if Trump contests the election. It's basically free money. At this point I can't imagine Trump would be be able to turn the popular vote - Biden's leading by more than 4M votes.
What do u guys think? It might take a few weeks to settle but I don't see any downside. Am I missing something?
What do u guys think? It might take a few weeks to settle but I don't see any downside. Am I missing something?
- sun_adit
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I am only talking about the market. If you think you are smarter than the people currenlty betting on the market, or have more reliable sources, go for it and take the free money!
Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
While you believe that it is impossible for Trump to turn around, that's only your opinion. If you look at another market "Will Next President Lose Popular", combine with "Next president" and "popular vote" markets, you will know what the market is currently thinking about the situation. Betting on an event around 2% not to happen is sometimes very risk.ISIN wrote: You can bet Biden having won the popular vote, 1.02 odds at Betfair, which in my book is 100% safe bet even if Trump contests the election. It's basically free money. At this point I can't imagine Trump would be be able to turn the popular vote - Biden's leading by more than 4M votes.
What do u guys think? It might take a few weeks to settle but I don't see any downside. Am I missing something?
I am only talking about the market. If you think you are smarter than the people currenlty betting on the market, or have more reliable sources, go for it and take the free money!
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ju
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the result of, it's over 3 million votes difference, there's not a chance in 10,000 that could be a losing bet, if something truly incredible
were to happen, like Biden's win being overturned then worst case for popular vote would be void bet not a Trump win.
you can get 1.09 on Biden winning the election, if that's not a value bet?.....
Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
Isin you are correct, this is truly free money, you can bet 1.03 Biden winning the popular vote, that is a race that we already knowISIN wrote: You can bet Biden having won the popular vote, 1.02 odds at Betfair, which in my book is 100% safe bet even if Trump contests the election. It's basically free money. At this point I can't imagine Trump would be be able to turn the popular vote - Biden's leading by more than 4M votes.
What do u guys think? It might take a few weeks to settle but I don't see any downside. Am I missing something?
the result of, it's over 3 million votes difference, there's not a chance in 10,000 that could be a losing bet, if something truly incredible
were to happen, like Biden's win being overturned then worst case for popular vote would be void bet not a Trump win.
you can get 1.09 on Biden winning the election, if that's not a value bet?.....
- barnstorm
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
Has your Book paid off on your Presidential bet yet? Or graded it if you lost?
Two out of three of mine have paid off: MyBookie and Fairlay. BetOnline has not.
What about Pinnacle, Befair and others?
Thanks!
Two out of three of mine have paid off: MyBookie and Fairlay. BetOnline has not.
What about Pinnacle, Befair and others?
Thanks!