Arbusers

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:24 pm

This is to inform the forum that I keep buying BTC whenever price goes below $20.000.
Now I am invested with 105% of the initial desired amount.

I might inform the community about the current state of play if I find the time. And of course, do your own DD.

How much of your total investment captital is that in percentage?

Around 20+%.

i need price final capitulation to 14000 to spend my last "euro(shit)coins". Because current usd/eur i not like to buy now.

nahcarts wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:16 pm

i need price final capitulation to 14000 to spend my last "euro(shit)coins". Because current usd/eur i not like to buy now.

This is the dominant narrative (or the fairy tale) that usually never becomes true. And meanwhile, there is another strong point the bottom is in...

i awaiting something like march 2020 irrational corona flashcrash from 10000 to 4000
now from 20000 to 14000.
BECAUSE after ethereum merge complete, ethereum price will crash and take btc with it.
BECAUSE if you buy ETH today you can earn +-20% when ETHPoW will fork after 15th september, if price of forked ETHpow will be 0.20 eth.
A lot of speculants buy ETH to own both chains.

One Elliot waves chartist i follow posted this which looks convincing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJA58dxmzQk

from 45:53 and on you will see a situation you might recognize in the news today and thus the conclusion that we are in the previous part of the Elliot wave theory.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:41 pm

nahcarts wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:16 pm

i need price final capitulation to 14000 to spend my last "euro(shit)coins". Because current usd/eur i not like to buy now.

This is the dominant narrative (or the fairy tale) that usually never becomes true. And meanwhile, there is another strong point the bottom is in...


Cramer.png

LOL, Cramer is the best contrarian indicator out there.

He took out the Bitcoin bio and the laser eyes. What would a contrarian think?

I would like to quickly update our community about the current state of play.

As mentioned before, influencers and public figures with significant exposure to the crypto communities are taking a neutral to negative position in the market. The vast majority of investors are condemned to lose money even in an ultra bullish environment. These ''so called'' influencers and figures are their grave diggers. I recall an expert with millions of followers demonstrating that he irresponsibly holds Bitcoin at $60.000. Their current position in the market is an indication that their employers and their sponsors are accumulating.

After this introduction lets go to our classic technical analysis as presented in the following chart:


This is a daily chart. I always prefer the bigger picture of the weekly charts, but here we will focus in some lines that can be better illustrated in daily charts.
BTC price is at the conjunction of 2 important lines. First and foremost, the descending resistance line that started at $69.000 and was confirmed at $48000. This is a very strong resistance. Secondly, the bear channel that we described in previous posts. Unfortunately these lines are now in conjunction and that means they will have a stronger combined resistance.

At the same time, on a weekly time frame we are defining a bottoming process that technically looks healthy. This is not highlighted in the above chart. The weekly picture is always stronger and more dominant than the daily.

How do I interpret all these?

The bottom is most probably in as we highlighted with confidence back in June. There are some hurdles remaining that we have to pass. I believe we will pass them sooner or later. In my view, there is no need and no hurry to pass these hurdles at once. Bitcoin can take its time and pass them one after another when they are not bundled together. Taking out enemies one after another is always better than taking them out altogether. BTC could take a $1000-2000 breath now, face the descending resistance, and then infiltrate in the bearish channel. This could be a playground for some time, and then shoot up outside the invalidated channel.

Of course this is my imagination and my interpretation of the lines that I see. Real life can always surprise me.
This is not a financial advise, do your own due diligence.

I correctly anticipated BTC's failure to pass the descending resistance line that started at $69.000 and was confirmed at $48000. It was reconfirmed again at $23000. This is a very strong resistance. Now 3 weeks later BTC is revisiting this resistance, only this time it will not have to enter the bear channel we previously described. It only has to battle 1 enemy this time.


As previously said, taking out enemies one after another is always better than taking them out altogether. However this is not a guarantee for success. In the next 5-7 days BTC will be tested once again.
Scenario 1, it passes the resistance and retests it as a support.
Scenario 2, it fails to pass the resistance and it falls to lower prices.

Any support or resistance when tested various times becomes weaker. This resistance was tested 3 times and every next time has a better chance to succeed.

The trend is your friend. I think the trend has already switched to neutral, and this is no time to be bearish. And yet most people are bearish meaning they are all already priced in. No one is left to sell. The trend has not yet switched bullish. It just needs a decisive leg up and a narrative. But it wont be a long waiting for HTF traders to buy.

Technically, today is a very big day as it will give us a clue of when and how the new bull market begins. Ideally, we are looking for a clean candle above the resistance line, followed by a successful retest.


I m not surprised, the youtube and twittosphere have no idea about today's importance.
And of course, do your own DD.

reason: weak USD
in eur 30.9 - 20442
today 4.10 - 20340

There are important things going on with Bitcoin in terms of technical analysis. One of them is the retest of the resistance that we can now name support. The retest took place yesterday. Ideally I would prefer a retest after 2-3 more days, but technical analysis doesn't care about what anyone wants.


Our new support is descending with a ratio of approximately $200 per day. It is very sharp, equally sharp to the bear market other people suffer. Let's hope we will not need this line as support in the future, because if we do, the price of BTC will be down to Hades' kingdom.

In my view, BTC will stay some more in this accumulation region before starting the next bull run. Remember, Bitcoin bottoms are ''a process''. If my thought process is correct, the next question left to be answered is ''Is this market bottom healthy''? Because a healthy bottom will lead to a healthy bull market with a new All Time High at the end.

And of course, this is not a financial advise, do your own due diligence.