Arbusers

Price forcast matric is almost at the bottom. Bottom is close, but not in yet


Monthly BITCOIN fear index wish to say we hit the bottom


Monthly RSI is at lowest level ever. Sign we alredy hit the bottom



Real BITCOIN dominance is closer to the bottom of this cycle (60%). Top dominance was 85% in 2019. I dont expect we hit 85% again, but we are much more away from this levels.. So I see more potential to buy BITCOIN now than altcoins


Puel Multiple index was very close to the bottom. Bottom is not in, but we are close!


RHOLD ratio tell us bottom is in or very close.


Reserve risk is all time low. This is sign that bottom is potentialy in!


MVRV index is close to the bottom. Index wish to say that the bottom is still not in


ETH+BTC dominance is moving around the bottom in this cycle. Indicator that advice not to buy random altcoins now


Long term holders are stong as never before. BITCOIN belivers never had so strong hands ever before. BITCOIN is close to the bottom. This indicator cant predict how close to the bottom we are.

We spend several months unde 200 weekly simple moving average. We tached also 300 weekly simple moving yestrday (like in previose cycle). Potentialy this indicate that bottom is in! Potentialy we could hit 400 weekly simple moving average (this is pure speculation)

BITCOIN Transactions fees are drasticly down. This indicate that potential bottom is in. Previose cycle fees droped 99,7%, This cycle transaction fees droped 99,1%

Twitter interest in BTC in previose cycle droped 70%. In this cycle it droped 38%. This indicate that we have still potential to drop more in BTC price

Buy BITCOIN at RED yearly closing candle is historicly top buy oportunety

Wow, interesting.
@cryptodata: can you explain some more about these indicators? I know that I can google them, but it's interesting to hear about all of the in context.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:57 pm

Wow, interesting.
@cryptodata: can you explain some more about these indicators? I know that I can google them, but it's interesting to hear about all of the in context.

It would take too long to explain all this indicators. So you need to study this indicators by yourself

Most of this indicatgors i implemented in my crypto strategy 2 years ago, becouse i had time

I can tell that altcoins from cycle to cycle cant outpeform BITCOIN and ETH.
So I will put only 10% of my portofolio into altcoins, when time is right. (Seeling startegy i use some also some other indicators)

Becouse I didnt do my homework 7 years ago, I put at start too much in altcoins insted of putting all in BITCOIN. At that time I didnt had time to study crypto cycles, becouse betting was just too profitable buisnes

If you dont trade altcoins out you lose money (or you lose at list against BITCOIN). Only lucky altcoins will outperform BTC and ETH from cycle to cylce like DOGECOIN did in the last cycle.

If you notice, me and arbuser see the bottom around same levels. But BITCOIN need to drop to $12k, only than all my indicators will say BITCOIN hit the absolute bottom. Am I prepare to wait for this to hapen? No way, as most crypto indicators told me we hit the bottom alredy

But its also interested to read some other opinion, like arbuser presents here. My self i spend on TA 1 second as i dont see logic in it (it doasnt mean it cant work for others)

But if you notice that arbuser TA and my indicator are not so mach diferent at the end. Bouth predict bottom at similar levels.

But if you notice when dollar get stronger, BITCOIN price dropes and vice versa.

Some people see a pivot from fed when intrest rates will go from 0,75 to 0,5. This is abolutly not a pivot. No mather if you incrise intrest rates by 0,75 or 0,5 from meeting to meeting,.. Incrising intrest rates means recesion in the future...

But important question is: Will BTC hit the bottom at the same time as stock market?
I belive that news around FTX will crash crypto much more than a potential recesion. So maybe in a year sp500 will hit 3.300 and BITCOIN will not go under $17k ever again (maybe we went under when i write it,).

Very positive around crypto now is that we see some biger volumens that could say this is the bottom. This signal i mised in June

The situation is evolving as we speak and I still don’t have all the data I would like to have. There are a lot of things I would like to comment on, but I will try to keep it as short as I can.

A big thank you to crypto data for providing his resources. Some of them I already knew, some of them I never heard before.

I will now try to explain what we see in front of our eyes, but again, it is too early to draw conclusions. Those who read this thread might remember the impact that Elon Musk, Cathy Wood and Jack Dorsey had in the market, by declaring publicly their support to Bitcoin. You can read my comment here: bitcoin-analysis-and-investing-strategy-t8585/#p89360 and this is the graph I uploaded back in May:


These 3 important figures tried to artificially pump the price of the BTC in order to sell to the irrational. I believe we now see exactly the same phenomenon in front of our eyes. An important figure is trying to artificially take down the price of Bitcoin in order to buy from the irrational. This figure is Binance’s CZ.

So we have seen a double top for BTC, one technical top and a top for the irrational. Now we see a double bottom, one technical bottom on June the 18th and a second bottom for the irrational. All credible TA i have in my mind pinpointed June the 18th as the technical bottom of the BTC price. Now, someone, CZ is trying to artificially create a 2nd bottom, in the same manner Musk, Wood and Dorsey did for the 2nd top.

Let me make it very straight, I do not agree with CZ’s practices, I consider them of very low ethics, but at the same time he is not doing anything illegal yet to be accused. With the FTX and FTT story, he holds the market as a hostage.

Look at these 2 options:
If he buys FTX, clear skies ahead, we have a new bull market.
If he doesn’t buy FTX, dark skies ahead, the bear market continues.
He is the only one to decide.

At the same time, he selected a very specific time to act like this, more importantly when the market was days if not hours away from skyrocketing according to the T.A metrics that I follow. We were visiting the Bull Market support band, just before the 200 MA, and when the weekly RSI was just about to cross an important barrier. Is this a coincidence? Absolutely no.

His actions are against the crypto community for 2 reasons.
1. There will be issues with monopoly. I m sure the US would love to intervene to kick out a dominant exchange owned by a Chinese.
2. Technically, the end of the bull market will come at a lower price than previously expected.
The community is losing, and CZ is not quite sure if he wins. How smart is that?

Did i buy in this price dump? No. It went just 3-4% bellow my previous target, I will need something more deep to be lured.

Have no doubt, this is your self you need to fight. Be strong, hold on, and don't pay attention at the sirens. The sirens will always try to make you hand your coins.

BTW, do you remember Ulysses?


it is too early to draw conclusions and find new price targets. We are in terra incognita. But we are very very near to the bottom.
And of course, do your own DD.

Having a big exposure in BTC and some altcoins I can surely say the feel is not good. I m tempted to press the sell button 100 times per day.

I would like to update you on a couple of things that I observe in the market.

Over all, it seems to me, this is the final capitulation with a structure that pinpoints seller's exhaustion. The big BTC owners are reluctant to sell their BTCs, and they prefer to stay quiet until the storm pass, or at best to add some more in their positions. At the same time I must say that most of these people are scratching their pocket for money, as most of them were already positioned for the next bull market.


On the graph, we already commented on the big resistance line coming from November 2021 that we passed in the beginning of October. This resistance line works as our support. Unfortunately it is very steep and this support was far bellow our feet. But we came very close to it. We touched it, or, we are about to touch it. When touched, this support line will act like a spring, a stimulus. I was hoping we wouldn’t have to confirm this support, but life thinks differently and in the case of BTC prefers taking the least expecting options.

All in all, I believe selling my coins at this stage would be a bad option. And of course, do your own Due Diligence.

Kreon wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:53 am

Having a big exposure in BTC and some altcoins I can surely say the feel is not good. I m tempted to press the sell button 100 times per day.

Can you explain why would anyone sell BITCOIN now (Altcoins to hold in bear market is crayzi! )?

NOt finacial advice, but why on earth would you sell your BITCOIN now?

Now all indicators scream to buy BITCOIN. All indicators screamd to sell BTC in april/may 2021.

The reason to sell, up to transaction fees, is the same reason not to buy! Should everybody be loading up on crypto right now?

Kreon wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:53 am

Having a big exposure in BTC and some altcoins I can surely say the feel is not good. I m tempted to press the sell button 100 times per day.

Bought half of a Bitcoin in July 2017 at around 3500 USD, sold in February 2018 when it crashed to 6500 USD, my worst mistake.


Now of course I bought again some in late 2020, early 2021, and late 2021, my portfolio is down and I could hardly give a fuck, LOL

crypto data wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:03 pm

1.png
Price forcast matric is almost at the bottom. Bottom is close, but not in yet



2.png
Monthly BITCOIN fear index wish to say we hit the bottom



3.png
Monthly RSI is at lowest level ever. Sign we alredy hit the bottom




4.png
Real BITCOIN dominance is closer to the bottom of this cycle (60%). Top dominance was 85% in 2019. I dont expect we hit 85% again, but we are much more away from this levels.. So I see more potential to buy BITCOIN now than altcoins



5.png
Puel Multiple index was very close to the bottom. Bottom is not in, but we are close!



6.png
RHOLD ratio tell us bottom is in or very close.



7.png
Reserve risk is all time low. This is sign that bottom is potentialy in!



8.png
MVRV index is close to the bottom. Index wish to say that the bottom is still not in



9.png
ETH+BTC dominance is moving around the bottom in this cycle. Indicator that advice not to buy random altcoins now



10.png
Long term holders are stong as never before. BITCOIN belivers never had so strong hands ever before. BITCOIN is close to the bottom. This indicator cant predict how close to the bottom we are.

If I remember correctly these indicators from lookintobitcoin.com are referred as onchain indicators? No disrespect, but they are mostly bullshit, they have proved to be garbage for 1.5 years now.

There is a significant loss of confidence in the market caused by BOTH SBF and CZ. None in this story is a white pigeon even though one of these 2 is presenting himself as one.

As previously said, the recent dump in the BTC price will determine the height of the next top. Very roughly, this dump will shorten the top by at least $10.000 whenever it occurs.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:40 am

Should everybody be loading up on crypto right now?

Having a solid DDCA project in place would answer your question without even having to think. I my self being completely allocated am very very reluctant buying anything without proper T.A. And so far we don't have the data needed. Only when a bottom is in the process of being formatted, we will have that data. As you understand we are talking about a bottom, within a bottom.

And of course...do your own DD.

So he can use Twitter to attack other exchanges, but do not allow others to comment on binance.
Very Chinese, very communistic.
Elon?

Face reality. You failed to confidently find the bottom. Your Technical Analysis did not work. CZ is not to blame.

balls of steele wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:14 am

Face reality. You failed to confidently find the bottom. Your Technical Analysis did not work. CZ is not to blame.

Yup sounds about right