During the peak of the bear market I have a few words Ill like to say.
This forum right here has been the framework, guidance and teachings I have learnt from for the past 11yrs at least. If there is one teacher in the shadows or mentor I had Ill call him out as Arbusers.
I learnt my way from arbitrage, to value betting, bonus hunting and everything you can come around by being here since back in 2011. I lost my previous account but that was due to stepping back and taking a walk after an unfortunate series of betting events back in 2018. The person who was there and said the wisest words to me was Arbusers, who told me to take a long walk or travel and never come back to my computers till I was ready.
4yrs forward, from the philosophical teachings to his market reading teachings, I can say I have been able to get hold of my life again. The trove of treasures on this forum is something you will not find and even in my exile of 4yrs, the only one constant that did not change was the daily visit to the forum even without logging in.
Looking forward to be active on this thread and others going forward.
Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Thank you for the good words Blue Dragon. Really appreciate it.
I remember your case very well as it was one of a kind. I will gladly help you restart your betting business and career if there is positive ground and will. Contact me on Skype whenever possible.
I’m preparing a post on BTC.
I remember your case very well as it was one of a kind. I will gladly help you restart your betting business and career if there is positive ground and will. Contact me on Skype whenever possible.
I’m preparing a post on BTC.
- Eleftherios
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I noticed that during the previous ATH (Dec 17) not many people had the change to buy at the market top range which lasted for 2-3 weeks. On the contrary the recent bull market gave plenty of time to market participants to buy at the first peak (7-8weeks) and the second peak (3-4 weeks).
For me, this is an indicator that the social engagement will remain higher than usual and the bull market can be prolonged as much as needed for people to lose interest. As been said, crypto is a new market embracing all the flaws of new investors.
The purge of non inflated prices hits the overexposed exchanges, projects with no real use case or funding and finally retail investors not prepared for the marathon.
Whoever wanted to sell has already sold and the trading price is now formed from the tip of the iceberg minority of BTC in exchanges. I focus on the big picture (iceberg under the water level) and not top of it. This is also reflected when recently, BTC diverged from the stock market trajectory.
@Arbusers could you share your thoughts
1) For BTC staying for such a long time below the 200-day SMA?
2) Bitcoin is the seed for the crypto ecosystem and ecosystems are dynamic entities. Although fundamentally different, now it is linked together in a symbiotic interaction. If energy (money) does not flow in its Altcoin pairs due to major alts being regulated as securities
(exchanges will not have permission to sell them->people will not have access to buy them-> total crypto market cap drops) can BTC climb proportionately to its past history?
For me, this is an indicator that the social engagement will remain higher than usual and the bull market can be prolonged as much as needed for people to lose interest. As been said, crypto is a new market embracing all the flaws of new investors.
The purge of non inflated prices hits the overexposed exchanges, projects with no real use case or funding and finally retail investors not prepared for the marathon.
Whoever wanted to sell has already sold and the trading price is now formed from the tip of the iceberg minority of BTC in exchanges. I focus on the big picture (iceberg under the water level) and not top of it. This is also reflected when recently, BTC diverged from the stock market trajectory.
@Arbusers could you share your thoughts
1) For BTC staying for such a long time below the 200-day SMA?
2) Bitcoin is the seed for the crypto ecosystem and ecosystems are dynamic entities. Although fundamentally different, now it is linked together in a symbiotic interaction. If energy (money) does not flow in its Altcoin pairs due to major alts being regulated as securities
(exchanges will not have permission to sell them->people will not have access to buy them-> total crypto market cap drops) can BTC climb proportionately to its past history?
- mrJustice
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I am no expert but my gut feeling is telling me that cryptos, a high risk asset, will not perform well in the near future due to combination of high interest rates, inflation and upcoming recession. I think for the next year btc price will either stay in the range of 15-20k or plummet significantly.
Do your own DD.
Do your own DD.
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arbusers
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1. The drop of the current cycle does not fit well with my technical analysis and the nature of price fluctuation as we know it for the last 10 years. That tells me something important. It is too early to interpret it, but I think BTC's next cycle will not be the same like the cycles we already witnessed. This cycle will be disrupted.
In which way? I wish I knew, but most probably one of the following 2 things will happen:
a. There will be no ATH in this cycle.
b. The cycle will be much longer or much shorter to stop the 4 year cycle tradition.
I have a potential Elliot Wave counting in my mind that I posted some months ago. You can revisit it here: bitcoin-analysis-and-investing-strategy ... tml#p89660, I might reconstruct it when time comes.
2. I hate philosophical questions as they need a long justification that I can't provide on a Sunday evening like this one.
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Eleftherios wrote: ↑Sun Dec 11, 2022 10:05 am@Arbusers could you share your thoughts
1) For BTC staying for such a long time below the 200-day SMA?
2) Bitcoin is the seed for the crypto ecosystem and ecosystems are dynamic entities. Although fundamentally different, now it is linked together in a symbiotic interaction. If energy (money) does not flow in its Altcoin pairs due to major alts being regulated as securities
(exchanges will not have permission to sell them->people will not have access to buy them-> total crypto market cap drops) can BTC climb proportionately to its past history?
1. The drop of the current cycle does not fit well with my technical analysis and the nature of price fluctuation as we know it for the last 10 years. That tells me something important. It is too early to interpret it, but I think BTC's next cycle will not be the same like the cycles we already witnessed. This cycle will be disrupted.
In which way? I wish I knew, but most probably one of the following 2 things will happen:
a. There will be no ATH in this cycle.
b. The cycle will be much longer or much shorter to stop the 4 year cycle tradition.
I have a potential Elliot Wave counting in my mind that I posted some months ago. You can revisit it here: bitcoin-analysis-and-investing-strategy ... tml#p89660, I might reconstruct it when time comes.
2. I hate philosophical questions as they need a long justification that I can't provide on a Sunday evening like this one.
- Eleftherios
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
There is recessions and RECESSIONS. The last one was a recession that was announced after the FED started dropping interest rates.
We were given a steady rate increase and a sharp decrease. In my view, we now come at the other end of the scale where the increase is sharp and the drop should come in stages. This should similarly lead to a recession and not a RECESSION which will be the case if the rate decrease is violent (central banks are not ready).
Look how the drop of rates triggered the market low range for BTC. Notice how the long, low interest time span 2020-2022 woke up the sleeping bulls craving for yield. Interest rates barely reflect the real inflation numbers leading in realised losses for all low yield parked money.
Inflation is similar to the blinds in poker tournaments which increase in time, set by the body hosting the financial tournament to force action for market participants as weaker players (countries in dept, institutions & retail) get eliminated.
If there were no inflation (blinds), the best investment strategy would be to fold everything except premium opportunities because it would be free to wait. The participants would be forced to save and not spend which is the cornerstone of capitalism.
For these reasons I believe the next bull market is a not around the corner but also not a long way from when rates will succumb. I am not dogmatic about anything and always on the lookout to have my blind spots covered. One of them is TA from people (@arbusers) who are much more adept than myself.
For the crypto tide to change we need the new narrative that will take us to the next bull market.
@arbusers
What is the most concerning BTC behaviour from TA perspective? Looking at the previous bear markets could we not say that pretty much everything is intact?
- 2011 Bear Market- down 93.6%
- 2015 Bear Market- down 85.2%
- 2018 Bear Market- down 83.7%
- March 2020- down 75.5%
- 2022 Low So Far- down 77%
We were given a steady rate increase and a sharp decrease. In my view, we now come at the other end of the scale where the increase is sharp and the drop should come in stages. This should similarly lead to a recession and not a RECESSION which will be the case if the rate decrease is violent (central banks are not ready).
Look how the drop of rates triggered the market low range for BTC. Notice how the long, low interest time span 2020-2022 woke up the sleeping bulls craving for yield. Interest rates barely reflect the real inflation numbers leading in realised losses for all low yield parked money.
Inflation is similar to the blinds in poker tournaments which increase in time, set by the body hosting the financial tournament to force action for market participants as weaker players (countries in dept, institutions & retail) get eliminated.
If there were no inflation (blinds), the best investment strategy would be to fold everything except premium opportunities because it would be free to wait. The participants would be forced to save and not spend which is the cornerstone of capitalism.
For these reasons I believe the next bull market is a not around the corner but also not a long way from when rates will succumb. I am not dogmatic about anything and always on the lookout to have my blind spots covered. One of them is TA from people (@arbusers) who are much more adept than myself.
For the crypto tide to change we need the new narrative that will take us to the next bull market.
@arbusers
What is the most concerning BTC behaviour from TA perspective? Looking at the previous bear markets could we not say that pretty much everything is intact?
- 2011 Bear Market- down 93.6%
- 2015 Bear Market- down 85.2%
- 2018 Bear Market- down 83.7%
- March 2020- down 75.5%
- 2022 Low So Far- down 77%
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Yesterday's price action made created a very strong signal as you can see in the graph below. This is the weekly time frame which is more powerful than the daily and the most accurate to use for the mid to long term BTC technical analysis given the time depth of cryptocurrencies.
The weekly RSI resistance coming from January 2021 is now broken. If it stays like this until Sunday night, we will have a very strong signal the bear market is over. Not to mention the positive divergences I spoke about in previous posts.
Let me remind you, the last time we had a similar phenomenon, it was the day that FTX collapsed.
And of course, do your own DD.
The weekly RSI resistance coming from January 2021 is now broken. If it stays like this until Sunday night, we will have a very strong signal the bear market is over. Not to mention the positive divergences I spoke about in previous posts.
- Weekly RSI.png (409.24 KiB) Viewed 581 times
Let me remind you, the last time we had a similar phenomenon, it was the day that FTX collapsed.
And of course, do your own DD.
- crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
- My BTC price model advise me to DCA 42% of capital into BTC at today price ($17,7k)
The same model adviced to me to to push 63% of capital into BTC at BTC $15,5k
- Based on previose BTC cycles (no potential recession included in calculations), at today price my DCA would be 74%
At price $15,5k my DCA would be 96%
-My social-internet risk model says that people still need to lose a social-internet interest into BITCOIN. This model sugest to push till now 15% of capital into BTC. This model may sugest more DCA at bigger BTC prices
It looks like inflation will normalize soon. Last time we had high monthly inflation was June 2022. If because of this we will only have a milder and shorter recession, then it is also possible that the price of 15k-16k per btc was the bottom.
The same model adviced to me to to push 63% of capital into BTC at BTC $15,5k
- Based on previose BTC cycles (no potential recession included in calculations), at today price my DCA would be 74%
At price $15,5k my DCA would be 96%
-My social-internet risk model says that people still need to lose a social-internet interest into BITCOIN. This model sugest to push till now 15% of capital into BTC. This model may sugest more DCA at bigger BTC prices
It looks like inflation will normalize soon. Last time we had high monthly inflation was June 2022. If because of this we will only have a milder and shorter recession, then it is also possible that the price of 15k-16k per btc was the bottom.
- crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I developed this model that proposes DCA in BTC.
No one knows exactly how the recession will affect the BTC price.
In this case, I imagined that a recession could mean that we once again experience the worst crisis that we have experienced in BTC
No one knows exactly how the recession will affect the BTC price.
In this case, I imagined that a recession could mean that we once again experience the worst crisis that we have experienced in BTC
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
@crypto data, I m wondering what were the criteria of this DCA strategy. If I understand the graph correctly it is overweight between $13000 and $17300.
Thank you.
Thank you.
- crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
This DCA is similar to the one used by Arbuser.
This model suggests DCA in such a way that if this crypto bear market is also similar to the previous ones
I can't share my opinion on which scenarios I believe more. But for now I don't have all the data about the potential recession yet.
Based on the data, which changes a little every day, the model also changes subsequently.
@Arbusers it is true that the largest DCA on the previous graph is the largest between $13k-$17k. This is because most of the indicators I follow claim that this is the bottom of bitcoin.
And becouse I am in euros my DCA is not same for those who are in $. Dollar is suffering right now. So € positionet people are in better position right now
This model suggests DCA in such a way that if this crypto bear market is also similar to the previous ones
I can't share my opinion on which scenarios I believe more. But for now I don't have all the data about the potential recession yet.
Based on the data, which changes a little every day, the model also changes subsequently.
@Arbusers it is true that the largest DCA on the previous graph is the largest between $13k-$17k. This is because most of the indicators I follow claim that this is the bottom of bitcoin.
And becouse I am in euros my DCA is not same for those who are in $. Dollar is suffering right now. So € positionet people are in better position right now
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- junoreactor
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- crypto data
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Data are clear that no many adresses are wiling to sell thair BITCOIN at this point.
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arbusers
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I doubt the even do.
Glassnode implies there are not many sellers left.
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I doubt the even do.
crypto data wrote: Data are clear that no many adresses are wiling to sell thair BITCOIN at this point.
Glassnode implies there are not many sellers left.
- crypto data
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Why do I think we may not have bottomed out for BTC yet?
1) Daily volumes have the potential to fall further
2) BTC Miners can handle an even bigger crisis
3) USDT market cap has potential to drop more.
4) I don't like the ETH/BTC ratio right now
5) TA analysis that I follow has not yet given me a signal that the bottom is already behind us - This is a lagging indicator i follow
6) Big players are still selling their positions (those with +1k BTCs). The bottom is usually reached when the big BTC players start buying This it's not happening right now, but this may change in few days
Potential to manipulate BTC price dawn, when is not a lot of volume is much easier. I dont expect to see price under 15k for more than few days, if this even hapened . Some panic news like FTX colaps, could push price down, if recesion hit some bigger player ( i sopose binance is safe).
When I see at least a few of these indicators that signal that the bottom was already behind us, I will be definitively convinced that the bottom has already been reached. Only then will my DCA be complete, although this means I will most likely be buying at higher prices
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Yes exactly what i wrote! 1+Y HOLDERS are around ATH. This is very strong signal + low volumens
Why do I think we may not have bottomed out for BTC yet?
1) Daily volumes have the potential to fall further
2) BTC Miners can handle an even bigger crisis
3) USDT market cap has potential to drop more.
4) I don't like the ETH/BTC ratio right now
5) TA analysis that I follow has not yet given me a signal that the bottom is already behind us - This is a lagging indicator i follow
6) Big players are still selling their positions (those with +1k BTCs). The bottom is usually reached when the big BTC players start buying This it's not happening right now, but this may change in few days
Potential to manipulate BTC price dawn, when is not a lot of volume is much easier. I dont expect to see price under 15k for more than few days, if this even hapened . Some panic news like FTX colaps, could push price down, if recesion hit some bigger player ( i sopose binance is safe).
When I see at least a few of these indicators that signal that the bottom was already behind us, I will be definitively convinced that the bottom has already been reached. Only then will my DCA be complete, although this means I will most likely be buying at higher prices
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