Arbusers

@Arbusers,

I am astonished from the accuracy of timing in your analysis.

You mentioned that recent BTC price action lines beautifully with S&P500. I am looking at the Volatility Index which historically, has bottomed at SP500 tops. Now that the VIX is coming down at its lower level support, will not the SP500 get rejected from its trend line once again and subsequently punish BTC?

Also, how can the RSI breakout base the beginning of a new cycle? Should not BTC first hold support above the 200D SMA?

Either way, BTC is approaching the only trend line left.

I would like to hear your view point on recession probabilities as I am getting mixed signals.

Recession Adversaries
The USA unemployment rate remains low
Dollar is in a downtrend (no save-heaven mentality)

Recession Proponents
Inversion of the yield curve
Two consecutive quarters on negative GDP
Periods of high inflation are mostly followed by a recession

Thanks again for all the input you share from your work. It raises the bar for the level of my effort.

@Eleftherios,

Let's take things one by one:

1. Thank you for the good words.

2. I am no expert on VIX, but seems to me that VIX is the symptom and not the cause. I prefer looking for the causes.

3. The 200 SMA is something observed by the majority of participants and therefore has no real value. The RSI woke up angrily and it went up to 88 in almost no time. This show rush.

I never pay attention to ''narratives''. Again narratives are bought by the majority of participants and therefore have no real value. They are the smokes that do not allow you to see reality. Forget about narratives and pay attention to the reality.

What recession? Where is it? With interest rates at 5% the US economy keeps making new jobs. This is not a recession, it is a strong and vivid economy. Yes, the FED might make it and create a kind of recession, but for how long and how deep? A recession of a quarter will not be deemed as a recession.
If the FED urgently needs a recession, they will have it, not because of their actions, but because of their mistakes, and they will have it at exactly the wrong time, when they wish they could avoid it. The market is a beast and no FED on earth can win the beast. Wondering, did any of these people read Adam Smith, or are they only about the Modern Monetary Policy and nothing more.

Inflation still out pacing wage increases. Savings down and credit card use up. Housing market has already slowed. If this continues recession seems likely?

turbobets wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:58 am

Inflation still out pacing wage increases. Savings down and credit card use up. Housing market has already slowed. If this continues recession seems likely?

In the end, it has no importance at all if we get into a recession, if we use credit cards, or if the labour market is strong. What has importance is BTC price action, SP500 price action, or anything else we invest price action.

I have already presented you my two btc models of how to invest based on the price of bitcoin in a normal bear market and in a bear market that includes a recession. At the price of $15.5k, the two models suggested that I buy 96% of the planned bitcoin, or 63% (the model that included the recession).

Due to the potential recession, I reduced the power of this 2 models to 25%. The models I showed, are very much in agreement with the arbuser buying strategy, The models claim that the price of bitcoin was at agrat buy theritory.

I would therefore ask Arbusers what he thinks about this graph in the picture, which is very popular. The problem may be precisely that this theory is too popular and that precisely because almost everyone predict inflation, it will not happen

Pluse tresury short term yield perform better than long term

Don't you think your graph belongs to the SP500 thread we have?
Let me reverse your question and you answer it. If you believe that BTC enters a new cycle now, what makes you think that SP500 will go down at the same time?

To a large extend, I m basing my way of thinking on confluence among various indicators. It is not wise to base everything on just 1 fact/hint/idea. You will never find a price model that obeys to just 1 hint. Therefore, a FED pivot should be just 1 fact among others and not the only one.
Now looking at your chart I noticed 2 successive FED pivots during the 70s, one of which made the market collapse, while the other did exactly the opposite. How do we know that FED will not pivot 2 or 3 or 4 times this time?
And also and more importantly, this time we have an exception. The market is already down, BEFORE the FED pivots, while all other times the market went down AFTER the FED pivoted. Is this difference telling you something? To me, it screams ''exception''.
And again, all these YouTubers and Twitters who again and again are proved wrong, they all say the same narrative ''the FED's pivot''.

The market has a way of pricing in events looking forward. The pricing does not equate with the actual event, it equates well in advance of the event. An individual investor's opinion should only be as strong as their ability to change it when new information comes. This is the way the market behaves.

Macro related fears such as recession must have been priced in, crypto regulation fears the same etc.

Fed typically raise rates as the market is going up, before it is going down. They hike into a strong economy. This time, they are hiking into a weakened economy. Thus, like arbusers said there must be an exception now. How this exception unbolds the price will keep reflecting. It is the interpretation of this reflections that I am here to listen and learn from proficient investors.

If you believe that BTC enters a new cycle now, what makes you think that SP500 will go down at the same time?
- If BTC enters in a new cycle now, the only possibility for the S&P500 to fall at the same time is if we enter a mild and short recession (if we enter a recession at all). We learned in September/October that fear of a recession and a lower lows in the sp500 does not mean a lower low for BITCOIN.

How do we know that the FED will not pivot 2 or 3 or 4 times this time?
- The 70s are definitely an option to repeat themselves again, where we will have a yo-yo market full of recession

And also and more importantly, this time we have an exception. The market is already down, BEFORE the FED pivots, while all other times the market went down AFTER the FED pivoted. Is this difference telling you something? To me, it screams ''exception''.
- In 2019, we had strong signals that the recession was coming for 2020 or 2021. The FED then accepted a strategy of printing new cheap money in March 2020. In such a way, the FED has simply transferred the recession that should have happened to the future. As a result, at that time we experienced EXCEPTION due to COVID and not now. What we see now are only consequences. In those conditions, the FED did not wish to go into a seriouse recession, because unemployment was too high when the whole world was closed. As expected, inflation then hit.
At the end of 2021, it was already known that the FED would soon start raising interest rates. That winter, strict measures against COVID were still in place. So at the same time supply chains were disrupted and the interest rate was rising. So in the first half of 2022, we saw negative GDP and falls in financial markets. When GDP is negative, financial markets usually bleed.
Now the economy is slowly breathing again. During this time, the stock market such as SP500 started to grow. You should be aware that the main drop in the SP500 happened in the first half of 2022.
From that moment on, the SP500 is slowly rising (nasdaq is holding positive zero, Dow Jones is positive, bitcoin is holding around positive zero).
So, the second half of 2022 is a completely normal situation, FED interest rates are rising + financial markets are growing. However, we must be aware that China is open again, which means higher global GDP and more trade between the US and China.
We know from history that the consequences of interest rate increases are felt only after a year or so. Higher interest rates will affect "zombie" companies only in 2023. So, if the financial markets continue to grow for some time in 2023, it would not be surprising.
The FED is supposed to finish raising interest rates by the summer, so according to this projection, we could experience a recession in Q3 of 2023. By the summer we can even realistically expect the growth of the financial markets, as well as the growth of bitcoin.
So, in the current situation, low unemployment is definitely a normal think.

The Bitcoin DCA model that I presented to you in December graphically does not include FED factors. These two models include around 30 indicators that are strictly relate to crypto/bitcoin analysis. Here the signals are very strong that the bottom for BTC has been reached or were very close. Only one strong indicator is undecided if we've hit a bottom, but this indicator could turn around in an instant.

The model, which includes an additional three factors (lets call them FED factors), are much more skeptical about investing in the long term at the moment.
Always when we had Inversion of the yield curve + high inflation + FED Pivot = recession always happened. And recessions are a good time to invest

The truth is that only 4 indicators out of 33 suggest to me that BITCOIN has not bottomed yet. However, as we saw in 2020, a brief recession had a big impact on the bitcoin price.

Everything I write is because I respect you! As a result, I also hope that I can learn something new and see thinks from other perspective.

Thank you for the good words and the contribution to the discussion.

Luck or skill. I m sure you know the experiment with the Monkey. It was written by Taleb. Can a Blindfolded Monkey Throwing Darts Outperform the Market? The answer is yes.

We are 9 days before January is out. Of course, no-one can anticipate how this month ends, but I observed something very interesting.

Of course, you hear it first here in arbusers. Soon Youtubers and Twitters will start parroting. Wanna bet for it?

If January ends now, with a BTC price at $22870 January's monthly candle will engulf 4 previous candles. This has never happened before in the history of BTC. It will send a powerful signal to chartists that will find themselves in a limbo.

If January ends (31st), with a BTC price above $23300, January's monthly candle will engulf the 6 previous candles. This will be an extremely rare phenomenon in the world of T.A, not only about BTC but about anything measured in charts and applied in T.A. It will send such a powerful signal to chartists, they will come to an orgasm.

See chart bellow and visualise what I am talking about:


And also notice. We are talking about a monthly engulfing candle, not just a daily or a weekly. This comes with much more significance and power.

What would invalidate my observation?
1. A rapid crash below $20520 will only leave 1 engulfing candle, still very powerful.
2. A rapid crash below $17200 will leave no engulfing candle, and bear market continues.

Again, you hear it first here, and observe the Youtubers and Twitters parroting me.
And of course, do your own DD.

Last time he said something similar, BTC rallied 47%. Now what?

Jim Cramer is legend, he is like indicator for reverse moves - I remember last year he mentioned netflix is good buy and short after they missed the subscribers expectations and plunged with 60+%.

The more I look at the data, the more I see that the logical bottom of bitcoin was in June 2022. Only the FTX collapse pushed BTC lower temporary.

After additional analysis, I am sure that we will have a mini bull market this year, possibly very similar to 2019.

I know that arbuser wrote that the price of bitcoin should go up to $50k (I believe that you are using dynamic data, so this data change thru time).
As I notice that you are also trying to predict when a new local peak is expected to hit. Could you share the day when bitcoin will hit local top (i understand this is very dinamic data)?. I understand that some members do not understand that what you are doing is a dynamic thing. However, I wonder if you expect a new local peak before or after the halving?

crypto data wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 25, 2023 10:00 am

The more I look at the data, the more I see that the logical bottom of bitcoin was in June 2022. Only the FTX collapse pushed BTC lower temporary.

After additional analysis, I am sure that we will have a mini bull market this year, possibly very similar to 2019.

I know that arbuser wrote that the price of bitcoin should go up to $50k (I believe that you are using dynamic data, so this data change thru time).
As I notice that you are also trying to predict when a new local peak is expected to hit. Could you share the day when bitcoin will hit local top (i understand this is very dinamic data)?. I understand that some members do not understand that what you are doing is a dynamic thing. However, I wonder if you expect a new local peak before or after the halving?

This is a nice post, let me take things one by one.

I consider April 2021 as the technical peak, while November 2021 is the actual peak. I explained in a previous post what caused these 2 peaks. The 2nd peak was caused by Musk, Wood and Dorsey's intervention in the market targeting meme investors who in the end paid the price of their ignorance.
It is too early to conclude, but it might be the case that June 18th 2022 has been the technical bottom and November 2022 is the actual bottom that was caused by FTX and Binance's actions. Let's not make a decision on that just yet. Whatever the truth is, these double peaks and bottoms are creating a technical mess and make things harder to analyse.

Even though BTC's circularity is already flashing an exact date and an exact price for this cycle's peak, I suggest we do not open this discussion now as we will conduct hubris. The price will not be a straight line, and yes we have the tools to recognise local tops and bottoms, some of which will have bigger importance than others. But also, we could adopt a different and a very simple strategy. Whenever price deviates from that line that unites the bottom and the top, we sell/buy accordingly.

Undeniably, the halving is an event that anchors the price of BTC. By understanding what the fair price of BTC is at the exact day of halving, you can understand if BTC is overpriced or underpriced at any given time. But be careful, BTC's nature is a parabola and not a straight line. You need to anchor this parabola in halving and then the number of potential outcomes is reduced very much.

I do not offer any commitment that I will support this thread for ever. It was stressed in the first post of the thread. Most probably I will alarm our members when I expect a local top and the over all top of the cycle. However, I must also say, this cycle most probably will not be a smooth one like the other 3 cycles. Cycle #4 will be unique.

And of course this is a dynamic process.