Arbusers

So if it closes >24300 , it will engulf 35 weeks or so
I wonder what this would signify ?

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:57 am

So if it closes >24300 , it will engulf 35 weeks or so
I wonder what this would signify ?

If it closes above $24300 it would still engulf 3 weeks. Where did you find these 35 weeks?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:01 pm

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 16, 2023 11:57 am

So if it closes >24300 , it will engulf 35 weeks or so
I wonder what this would signify ?

If it closes above $24300 it would still engulf 3 weeks. Where did you find these 35 weeks?

My mistake!
It will not engulf but will be the higher weekly closing out of last 35 weeks

Boss, what is this red dot line in your graph? A resistance, or...?
Thank you.

neopas wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:07 pm

Boss, what is this red dot line in your graph? A resistance, or...?
Thank you.

"Boss"?
please stop with that, have some self esteem bro

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 16, 2023 10:07 am

1. If the candle closes above $23800 it will engulf the 3 previous weeks. That will send a very powerful message that the bull market is here, alive and kicking.
2. If the candle closes between $23000 and $23800, it will engulf just 1 previous week. It will be a good signal but not that powerful.
3. If the candle closes below $23000 then we will have a very long wick above its head that will be interpreted as weakness by chartists, and will have a negative impact in the price.

It would engulf all the weekly candles until at least August 2022.

junoreactor wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 19, 2023 8:15 am

It would engulf all the weekly candles until at least August 2022.

Have a look at the charts again.

I think the problem is that some guys don't get the meaning of "engulf".
Meanwhile I'd like to use a chance to thank you for this great thread.

Rudolpho wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 19, 2023 11:56 am

I think the problem is that some guys don't get the meaning of "engulf".
Meanwhile I'd like to use a chance to thank you for this great thread.

Yes, seems so people are confused, and thank you for the good words. I am expecting the candle to be printed tonight and tomorrow morning I will have my conclusions published here.

So we are on the weekly time frame and we have a freshly print engulfing candle, that engulfs the 3 previous weeks. Again, a very powerful signal confirming that we are in a new Bull market.


As you might have noticed, BTC price is above the accumulation zone I designated 9 months ago: bitcoin-analysis-and-investing-strategy ... age15.html For me there is no reason accumulating any more, even though someone could accumulate until the very last day before selling his bags to others. This is up to everyone's investing strategy.

There are also bad signs in the charts. We have a negative divergence formatting between BTC price and our loyal RSI. The following chart in on the daily time frame.


This is very difficult to interpret, because at the same time, we have a very strong positive divergence on the weekly, but I will explain my thought process here with it.
It seems to me that a drop in price is on the cards, and could pretty well happen in the next days to come. But at the same time, this RSI created a lot of space for a booming performance. This RSI divergence could be corrected in the next days if BTC goes to the range of 29 to 31K, which is also on the cards. A daily RSI negative divergence is not a reason to sell at this point, according to the over all mentality of this investing strategy. I will need weekly and monthly divergences that would make me sell anything at this point.

And of course, do your own DD.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 20, 2023 2:39 pm

So we are on the weekly time frame and we have a freshly print engulfing candle, that engulfs the 3 previous weeks. Again, a very powerful signal confirming that we are in a new Bull market.


BTC1.png


As you might have noticed, BTC price is above the accumulation zone I designated 9 months ago: bitcoin-analysis-and-investing-strategy ... age15.html For me there is no reason accumulating any more, even though someone could accumulate until the very last day before selling his bags to others. This is up to everyone's investing strategy.

There are also bad signs in the charts. We have a negative divergence formatting between BTC price and our loyal RSI. The following chart in on the daily time frame.


BTC2.png


This is very difficult to interpret, because at the same time, we have a very strong positive divergence on the weekly, but I will explain my thought process here with it.
It seems to me that a drop in price is on the cards, and could pretty well happen in the next days to come. But at the same time, this RSI created a lot of space for a booming performance. This RSI divergence could be corrected in the next days if BTC goes to the range of 29 to 31K, which is also on the cards. A daily RSI negative divergence is not a reason to sell at this point, according to the over all mentality of this investing strategy. I will need weekly and monthly divergences that would make me sell anything at this point.

And of course, do your own DD.

According to the current situation in the market, do you see that bitcoin could have a similar growth this year as bitcoin in 2019?

Or do you expect that growth will be slower and slower this year, and that we will experience that real growth more in 2024/25?

crypto data wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:21 pm

According to the current situation in the market, do you see that bitcoin could have a similar growth this year as bitcoin in 2019?

Or do you expect that growth will be slower and slower this year, and that we will experience that real growth more in 2024/25?

I have no idea, and I can't expect any slower of faster specific year. This is not my style of analysis. As mentioned in the first post of this thread, my intention is to find good entry points near the bottom of the market, and good exit point near the peak.
In the meantime, I will use the halving event as an anchor. If I m good at calculating the fair price for BTC at halving, I will draw a trend line, that most probably will be a parabola due to the nature of BTC. And if we are much higher from that parabola, I might sell some of my positions, only to buy them back at a later stage. I have a specific price in my mind that I find fair for BTC for April 2024 when the next halving is expected. But this is dynamic and can't be decided deterministically at this point.

Over all, BTC comes with diminishing returns. Parabolas are getting softer and not steeper, and we can't expect the performances of the first 3 cycles.

I hope that helps.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:01 pm

crypto data wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:21 pm

According to the current situation in the market, do you see that bitcoin could have a similar growth this year as bitcoin in 2019?

Or do you expect that growth will be slower and slower this year, and that we will experience that real growth more in 2024/25?

I have no idea, and I can't expect any slower of faster specific year. This is not my style of analysis. As mentioned in the first post of this thread, my intention is to find good entry points near the bottom of the market, and good exit point near the peak.
In the meantime, I will use the halving event as an anchor. If I m good at calculating the fair price for BTC at halving, I will draw a trend line, that most probably will be a parabola due to the nature of BTC. And if we are much higher from that parabola, I might sell some of my positions, only to buy them back at a later stage. I have a specific price in my mind that I find fair for BTC for April 2024 when the next halving is expected. But this is dynamic and can't be decided deterministically at this point.

Over all, BTC comes with diminishing returns. Parabolas are getting softer and not steeper, and we can't expect the performances of the first 3 cycles.

I hope that helps.

Thanks for your opinion!
My data for now show that halving fair price at the moment is $32k +/- $3k,
in case we dont hit some macro big surprise

A quick update on the current state of play.

As we were expecting, the RSI negative divergence finally resulted to a 26% drop in the BTC price. This is a short term move and it is out of the scope of this thread. This thread is about the overall BTC cycle and for every mid term price move that could be well supported with evidence.

it seems to me the price is about to test the long term supporting line that started in November 2021. Every broken resistance becomes a support and vice versa. Today, this line stands at 19250 and it drops rapidly. It is in our interest the test takes place very soon, today or tomorrow, because any delay will cause further drop. The longer the line, the stronger it is. On the flip side, if this line brakes again, that would bring bad news and further weakness. Have a look at the chart and I will then comment on the RSI.


In the RSI we still see the negative divergence, only this time it dropped so quickly that has limited room in the downside. The RSI price now, is the same with the day the FTX collapsed. However, this price is not accompanied by similar events, unless there is something we do not know and it is going to be revealed very soon. My preferred view on the market would be a quick touch of 19200-19300 today or tomorrow and then continuation upwards. A more positive opinion would say that we don't have to retest it in detail, we went down to 19770 and that would be enough to be considered as a retest.

Of course, do your own Due Diligence.

I know it is very premature and as I said several times, shorter time frames are not within the scope of this thread, but let me present an early Elliott Wave counting of the current situation. Do not take ABC and especially BC price targets for granted. The bibliography at this stage allows several interpretations.


And of course, do your own Due Diligence, this is not a financial advise.