Arbusers

Today it is 18th of May 2023, and I decided to go for a long shot.

Well, I did a long shot before and I designated a bottoming box that proved to be extremely accurate. I was able to draw a rectangle within which I was expecting the market to bottom, and it did. All of my analysis was based on Technical Analysis.

Already I described the path of BTC during this market cycle as I envision it based on Technical Analysis again. To visualise this market cycle, I am drawing another rectangle where I expect the cycle to end. This rectangle is so small that makes the effort look like the pass of the thread from the needle head.


I will periodically revisit this picture to see where we stand.
And of course, do your own Due Diligence.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu May 18, 2023 6:54 pm

Today it is 18th of May 2023, and I decided to go for a long shot.

Well, I did a long shot before and I designated a bottoming box that proved to be extremely accurate. I was able to draw a rectangle within which I was expecting the market to bottom, and it did. All of my analysis was based on Technical Analysis.

Already I described the path of BTC during this market cycle as I envision it based on Technical Analysis again. To visualise this market cycle, I am drawing another rectangle where I expect the cycle to end. This rectangle is so small that makes the effort look like the pass of the thread from the needle head.


The longshot.png


I will periodically revisit this picture to see where we stand.
And of course, do your own Due Diligence.

Do you have any opinion at what level bitcoin dominance could pick this cycle?

@ Arbusers,

Thanks for the analysis and sharing. Is the X axis accurate? I am referring to a related previous post about October 2025. I will be thrilled to witness the path designed inked with reality in the months to come.

You spoke about a red candle for this month but you would not take trade taking the risk looking of the small picture. Given that BTC has long cycle history of 25%-35% corrections on its way up to the cycle top would you sell later on stronger market signals or wait for the ultimate selling zone to DCA out?

crypto data wrote: ↑

Thu May 18, 2023 8:21 pm

Do you have any opinion at what level bitcoin dominance could pick this cycle?

BTC dominance is not a component of my analysis, and therefore I do not pay attention.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Fri May 19, 2023 7:50 am

Thanks for the analysis and sharing. Is the X axis accurate? I am referring to a related previous post about October 2025. I will be thrilled to witness the path designed inked with reality in the months to come.

You spoke about a red candle for this month but you would not take trade taking the risk looking of the small picture. Given that BTC has long cycle history of 25%-35% corrections on its way up to the cycle top would you sell later on stronger market signals or wait for the ultimate selling zone to DCA out?

Yes, the Χ axis is accurate and shows October 25. I could narrow it down to just 2 weeks of October, but it wouldn't be visible in the graph. And yes, this is a long shot that will thrill me also. I m just sharing this in order to share this thrill and journey with those who are interested.

In this thread we discuss a strategy of buying at the start and sell at the end of the cycle. The primary objective here is to ride the cycle from start to end. But if there is strong confluence that would guarantee a 25 to 50% return I might be tempted to exploit.

Also, the way I see it now, I will not DCA out, but it will be a one-off sell transaction the way I did in the previous cycle.

With the recent developments and the SEC Binance lawsuit, I thought it was a great opportunity to (once again) repeat my self and provide general survival guideline in the crypto sphere.

1. Only BTC is a cryptocurrency. Anything else could fall in the categories of Apps, Tokens, you name it.
2. Keep your BTC in a separate hard wallet outside of every exchange. Avoid ''conjoins'' and anything else build to spy on you, or trap your BTC when in need.
3. By keeping your BTC in a hard wallet, you make it more difficult for bad actors to buy/sell paper BTC and thus you reduce BTC inflation to its real height.
4. Avoid any scheme offering an interest rate. Lesson 1 in economics: Wherever an interest rate, there is a risk.

Other than that, have no compassion at all to the snakes of this business. Some times snakes eat each other for breakfast. Usually, the biggest snake is the one that wins.

For example, we all remember CZ's role in exposing FTX fraud. Well done for that. This happened at a very special point in time, when all technicals were pinpointing the bottom ''was in''. By selecting this exact time, he undermined the long term future of the crypto sphere and more importantly he reduced the height of the next Bull Market Top.

He then locked all posts under his Twitter profile and only his people could comment. This is a very Chinese and a very communistic style of play from a Canadian. So today, this same guy accuses others for not reading the comments under their Twitter accounts... Let me teach both Chinese and Canadians some Greek words... what a hypocrisy and what a bad Ethos!


But, coincidences do not stop here. The SEC lawsuit was announced the very same time when the so called ''Bull Market Support Band'' was tested. This is by far, the most popular technical indicator for BTC. It is the 20-week simple moving average and the 20 weeks exponential moving average in question. As I said, snakes eat each other for breakfast and usually the biggest snake is the one that wins.

I will comment some more when I find some time in regards to the impact the SEC Binance lawsuit has to the price of BTC. Other than that, I continue my schedule as you know it.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:56 am

I will comment some more when I find some time in regards to the impact the SEC Binance lawsuit has to the price of BTC. Other than that, I continue my schedule as you know it.

So what was the impact of the SEC Binance lawsuit?


There was an impact for just... 23 hours. That tells me something. BTC is at a phase when its price is not decided by news, good or bad. Can you imagine the impact these news would have back in November?
I stick to my original plan, and like Ulysses, I tied my self to the must, in front of the sirens that symbolize temptation, desire, and risk.

@arbusers

Thanks for the confirmations on where we are and what to look at. You talked about how events like FTX and SEC affect the future price of BTC. I am deeply interested in the process of how that is determined. What method should be taken into account?

Also is the Elliot wave counting you posted on Mar 11 in play?

This weekend I joined Coinbureau, Coin Telepraph and Bitget event in London to get market sentiment.

Although we are in the early phase of a bull market where doubt is high and sentiment is low the attendance was high. Majority of attendees were in their 30s with no prior investing experience most of them entered the market in 2020-2021.

On stage narratives and notes
Value your wealth in BTC from Simon DIxon.
Cycles will be repeated new ATH coming in 2 years.
Challenge on this cycle is SEC, challenge on the next one CBDCs and the next one AI.

Off stage narratives and notes
Ledger not safe most probably, next few conferences everyone here will be arriving with Lambos, Bob Digital Asset News
We sell at the halving.
20K coming during the summer
Premium subscription promotions from representatives from well knows youtube channels.

Let's take things one after another.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

You talked about how events like FTX and SEC affect the future price of BTC. I am deeply interested in the process of how that is determined. What method should be taken into account?

No. I said that these events no longer influence the price of BTC. We are at the phase when news are irrelevant.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

Also is the Elliot wave counting you posted on Mar 11 in play?

Obviously, not.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

Majority of attendees were in their 30s with no prior investing experience most of them entered the market in 2020-2021.

One of the most important characteristics of the crypto sphere, is the majority of investors being inexperienced having no previous education on any market. That is why the market is dominated by a hypermagnification of reactions (let me put it like this). A 1% drop in the SP would mean a 3% drop in BTC. These people can't control their emotions, but, they are getting educated day by day.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

Value your wealth in BTC from Simon DIxon.

Is Simon Dixon valuing his wealth in BTC? Over the years, I had contacts with a number of family offices and high net worth individuals, some of them in the Forbes list. Absolutely no-one, I repeat, absolutely no-one values his wealth in BTC. The majority value their wealth in USD, only a limited number of people in EUR. The ''Value your wealth in BTC'' is simply another narrative from BTC maximalists with the only target to put more people in the meat grinder.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

Cycles will be repeated new ATH coming in 2 years.

It is easy to make a statement like this, it will bring many clicks and views. What is difficult is to explain why.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

Challenge on this cycle is SEC, challenge on the next one CBDCs and the next one AI.

More narratives and academic BS on their way. Don't fall for them.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 12, 2023 3:15 pm

Ledger not safe most probably, next few conferences everyone here will be arriving with Lambos, Bob Digital Asset News
We sell at the halving.
20K coming during the summer
Premium subscription promotions from representatives from well knows youtube channels.

Theoretically, every hard cold wallet could not be safe, depending on how you use it. For example, if you select ''CoinJoin'' for Trezor, then you voluntarily say good bye to your privacy.
I have limited trust in people who sell clicks and views. Some of them are simply charlatans, easy to spot the minute they open their mouths.
Anyone can make a bold statement easily, it is the explanation which is hard.

Why is Ledger not safe?

apoel81 wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 8:40 am

Why is Ledger not safe?

short: private keys can go out of your ledger

crypto data wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 9:17 am

apoel81 wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 8:40 am

Why is Ledger not safe?

short: private keys can go out of your ledger

I was one of the people that suggested ledger in the forum as the most safe track record cold wallet. After the new ledger update it is not the case anymore. Ledger CEO said literally live in a podcast that if law enforcement asks about your crypto they will have the capability to block it with the new update. So technically they have access to your coins. The problem is not the government agencies. The problem is they now have a technical way to access your crypto so this leaves room for some employee or a hacker to take access of your wallet.

Thanks for the input guys.

What alternative you would suggest?

There is an interesting discussion about it on bitcointalk under "Ledger Recovery" thread.

SpaceSurfer wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 7:38 pm

There is an interesting discussion about it on bitcointalk under "Ledger Recovery" thread.

Indeed. Spend some hours reading it myself as well trying not to get paranoid tbh lol

bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5452900.0