Arbusers

Excuse me for bothering your discussion.
My little suggestion - when some Author on a given topic on the forum is sharing for free even a millionth of her/his precious intellectual work, costing her/him tens of thousands of hours spent in front of the monitors, while is inventing a unique approach to the given problem, may be treated as follows:
- It's a valuable hint for free toward all the members to inspire them to diggin' more on a deep level. As a consequence, that'll cause every member's evolution in the business;
- More respect for everybody's intellectual work is needed;
- It's very dangerous to ask for more precious details on that intellectual property publicly on the forum. Better ask the Author elsewhere, not publicly. Or buy it, if it's for sale at all. The Big Sharks and Institutional Investors with unlimited money read here the forum and they'll swallow the invented jewels for no time. That'll harm either her/him business or your one. As a big consequence, that'll threaten the forum's existence as well. That's why discretion is needed.
Just my two cents.

I have not disrespected anyone's work. I have expressed my admiration for the accuracy of the calculations and graphs. English is not my mother language, and therefore can sometimes be misunderstood. In any case, I do not force anyone to give away their work. I only know 3 people who are able to win in the financial markets consistently, and one is Arbusers. This is a powerful community with intelligent people, we all know that arbing is gradually diminishing, and over time we will have to evolve towards other areas. But only him, knows if it is convenient (or not) to show more than what he has already shown us. There will always be people willing to steal knowledge without giving anything in return. There will also be others willing to help.

@ CharlieSheen99,

Sorry for the misunderstanding, in case my opinion sounds like a critical one to you. I simply ask to protect the forum from the Big Sharks. My opinion wasn't directed at you. The spirit of some questions to the original Author and his delicate replies may attract the Big Sharks' attention.
Again, not addressed to your post or your personality at all.
Like you, I'm not a native English language user.
Very sorry again, and if the posting is inappropriate, let the Admin delete or move the opinion at his discretion.

Best wishes and profits to all.

No worries at all.

Anyway i don't want to distort this thread, so i will not comment again something with no conexion with the title.

can u do analysis of stock market please. bitcoin is worthless. u cant buy anything with it.

@arbusers

Given your recent post, an important bottom is on its way that would occur at the mid of June.

Considering the external environment such as DXY pulling back from its ascending trajectory, the recent stock market bounce, and the nine red weekly candles for BTC, is it not more likely to see a relief rally to 35K-40K in June rather an important bottom?


Thanks,

DPG wrote: ↑

Mon May 30, 2022 11:00 pm

can u do analysis of stock market please. bitcoin is worthless. u cant buy anything with it.

I believe you are not right with this.
Let's suppose that you have an Amazon stock. What can you buy with it? Absolutely nothing. Can you go to the super market and pay with an Amazon stock? Can you buy a car paying with Amazon stocks? Can you get vacations in a hotel and pay with an Amazon stock? The answer to all these questions is ''No''.
The same applies with almost everything traded in any exchange market. You can buy nothing with Cocoa contracts. You can buy nothing with crude oil futures. You can only buy things and services paying with real money, in the form of Euros, Pounds, Dollars, or any other currency. In very rare occasions you could find an exchange economy, most of the times in 3rd world countries where you give eggs to get meat.

I prefer not to open a discussion about the fundamental value of BTC. I might do that discussion in the future, if I find the time.

I may post in the S&P thread when I have something decent to say.

You can buy dividend paying stock and do what ever you want with the real money proceeds. Plus shares have intrinsic value as the companies produce goods and services. Me personally I don't do bitcoin as all you can do with it at the moment is sell it on to someone else.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue May 31, 2022 7:48 am

DPG wrote: ↑

Mon May 30, 2022 11:00 pm

can u do analysis of stock market please. bitcoin is worthless. u cant buy anything with it.

I believe you are not right with this.
Let's suppose that you have an Amazon stock. What can you buy with it? Absolutely nothing. Can you go to the super market and pay with an Amazon stock? Can you buy a car paying with Amazon stocks? Can you get vacations in a hotel and pay with an Amazon stock? The answer to all these questions is ''No''.
The same applies with almost everything traded in any exchange market. You can buy nothing with Cocoa contracts. You can buy nothing with crude oil futures. You can only buy things and services paying with real money, in the form of Euros, Pounds, Dollars, or any other currency. In very rare occasions you could find an exchange economy, most of the times in 3rd world countries where you give eggs to get meat.

I prefer not to open a discussion about the fundamental value of BTC. I might do that discussion in the future, if I find the time.

I may post in the S&P thread when I have something decent to say.

I am looking forward to that part

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Tue May 31, 2022 6:06 am

Given your recent post, an important bottom is on its way that would occur at the mid of June.

Considering the external environment such as DXY pulling back from its ascending trajectory, the recent stock market bounce, and the nine red weekly candles for BTC, is it not more likely to see a relief rally to 35K-40K in June rather an important bottom?

I previously highlighted that my metrics are fluid. They change every day according to the data the market gives to us.

arbusers wrote: These metrics are fluid, and would change slightly as we are approaching.

Already, the +4% in BTC price that we have seen yesterday, resulted to a delay of 3-4 days for the date of the important bottom. When price goes up, we have a delay, and when price goes down, the date comes closer.

Yes, we could very well see a relief rally, and if materialised, we will have a significant delay in the potential bottom date. I am not looking to exploit any relief rally at this stage as my time horizon is different. Right now, I am trying to get the important bottom and jump in the market at the beginning of the next cycle.

I am not paying attention at external factors as they will be sirens luring me to take the wrong decision. I m focusing on my graphs only. Because graphs are engulfing the news before they go public, and if interpreted correctly they signal the next move long before it happens.

So, it is important not only to draw the lines, but be able to interpret them correctly.

Thank you for the comments, and like always...

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑

Sat May 28, 2022 11:58 am

I would really love to know how do you do this metrics, graphs...., or if you don't want to share, or you don't have time to teach others, maybe you can give us some ways, concepts, to initiate by ourselves.

I have spent so much time reading Twitter, watching Youtube videos, even browse Lookintobitcoin website (they have lots of metrics).

Bottom line: everyone is clueless, the market is manipulated by whales.

Last time I saw a metric flashing for BTC top was in April 2021 (the metric is called Pi cycle), it was right.... until BTC broke 65k and went to 69k.
So even that metric that was undefeated so far ended up being wrong about the top of the cycle.

junoreactor wrote: ↑

Tue May 31, 2022 1:27 pm

Bottom line: everyone is clueless, the market is manipulated by whales.

There are so many whales out there with contradicting interests that you can never be sure if they are responsible for what you see in the charts.

There is a stronger force in the market and that is called the liquidity provider. This is a puritanical high priesthood, reverent within its own atheism. This is the force that gives magnitude at every move no matter if it is up or down, because we are talking about human behaviour and psychology here. At the same time, it is the force that keeps BTC price within ranges, bringing both Technical Analysis and the Elliott Wave theory to their extremes when even the most experienced will be puzzled.

As I said several times, it is the man in the mirror that you are fighting against, but some times the mirror is distorting.

I will now present the Wave count for Bitcoin, according to the Elliott Wave theory. As I mentioned several times in various posts, it is extremely difficult to implement the Elliot Wave theory in Bitcoin. However, when I zoom out to the very broader picture, things get more clear and the blur is gone.

Where are we now? My opinion is that we finished a wave 3 (black) and we are running an ABC correction towards the end of wave A that I am expecting very soon. Then a B wave is expected that will give very good returns, followed by the C wave that usually comes as a cataclysm.

Let me speak some more about these B and C waves. The time needed for these waves to evolve fits very well in my investing profile, and the expected height of wave B will offer profits that most probably will be counted to 3 digits. Therefore, this is not a wave to be ignored. In the following graph, you will notice that C, goes to cataclysmic lows.


What are the targets for a C wave of this magnitude? Theory leaves a lot of open options and I can only put 2 targets on the table with the data that I have so far:
1st. The typical end of a wave C, is equal to the end of the previous wave 4 of one smaller degree. This is marked as blue IV in the graph and it stands at approximately $3200. Are you impressed?
2nd. Wave C is equal to wave A, or, has a fibonacci analogy of wave A. This is not possible to be determined now, because wave A is not yet finished. But even when it finishes, the potential targets of wave C will be too many.

To calculate the end of every wave, I need the assistance of other tools, such as classic Technical Analysis, and this is what I actually do in my effort to find confluence for my decisions.

Also notice that I placed potential future waves at the X (time) axis at points that I did not calculate. Don’t take the X axis to the bank.

You should not be panicked with what you see in the graph. One thing at a time. I now look for the end of wave A, where my DDCA will come to a climax, and I will then start examining the nature of the next wave.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Dear @arbusers,

I try to dive deep in the market and from my research stems the following points/questions.

We spoke about BTC dominance climbing much higher (60% levels) to signal a healthy market.

The dominance is 46% at the moment including Stablecoins but around 52% excluding them. In the past cycles Stablecoins were not abundant. Which is the correct variation of the metric to focus here and why?

I have noticed that when Stablecoin Dominance drops, BTC price increases and rise versa. Since November 2021 Stablecoin Dominance is in a bull market (putting in higher lows and higher highs). Thus, BTC prices could move lower in the next weeks /months.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (BTC MarketCap/ Stablecoin Market Cap is 3.62. I assume BTC dominance will keep going higher at a higher rate than Stablecoin Dominance in the coming weeks/months. The reasoning is that rational investors will convert Alts to BTC rather than Stablecoins because ALTs will bleed more against BTC rather than Stablecoins. Thus, Stablecoin Supply Ratio will keep going lower and when reaching a bottom it will signal an increasing potential to push BTC price higher?

P.S Could you recommend books on TA or any other discipline that helped with your investment analysis? I have a background in Economics.