Arbusers

@arbusers
I can’t blame you for that opinion, however don’t misjudge my silence….
I ensure you that I participate in this market
And I always read and study your work thoroughly and many times I have thanked you publicly as I am sure you remember
Thanks again btw

Mark My Words..
9 March (may differ 1-2 days) will be a local top.
expect a 1-2 week downtrend starting by that time.
bull market will resume after 1 week or around 22-24 march. enjoy!

ps: if you think my views about btc romantic, i suggest you to read more about bitcoin NOBODY IS BULLISH ENOUGH!!

even we're in a bull season, ofcourse it doesnt mean there wont be any corrections, all eyes are on calendar, 9 march!

please do yourself a favor and READ (or watch) some ANDREAS ANTONOPOULOS!!

Sonny wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 2:11 pm

Mark My Words..
9 March (may differ 1-2 days) will be a local top.
expect a 1-2 week downtrend starting by that time.
bull market will resume after 1 week or around 22-24 march. enjoy!

How do you back this opinion?

The problem is most people want to time the exact bottom and the exact top.
This is not humanly possible, since our data is always smaller than all market participants, we cant be aware of all of them.
But even bitcoin can not escape the macro trends, or any other big trend, since its a tradable asset and those who trade it or hold it are human investors affected by those trends.
The most important thing is to buy low and sell high, not to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest.
There are many indicators which tell us if we are trading low and many others which tell us if we are trading high.
But this is not as easy as it sounds. To turn off all the noise and focus is maybe one of the greatest and rarest qualities a man can have.
Lets take an example:
An asset goes down 80% from ATH and you think it is low and buy it. Than it goes to -90% from ATH to reach the bottom.
You are not 10% down on your investment, you are in fact 50% down on your investment.
Emotions go in and most of the people would panic sell.
But if you hold there since the trends indicators say we are trading low than you would be 5x your investment on the next ATH.
The markets have seen this all over again with Amazon, Tesla, Meta and now Bitcoin but somehow people have it very hard to learn.
Long time frame plays are very difficult to grasp from the average human especially now that attention spans are lower and dopamine addiction needs faster and faster rewards.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 2:11 pm

Mark My Words..
9 March (may differ 1-2 days) will be a local top.
expect a 1-2 week downtrend starting by that time.
bull market will resume after 1 week or around 22-24 march. enjoy!

bitcoin is crashing, but upside

Am I missing something from the whole picture, considering the feedback from many of my friends in other countries and based on the previous two Bitcoin cycles? We surpassed the ATH, but retail still seem disengaged with Bitcoin. What I mean is, in a few countries, mostly in the Balkans and Poland, there's virtually no Bitcoin hype compared to the same stage during the last cycle. Could this be dictated by the emergence of the "safer" Bitcoin ETF, or is Bitcoin still beyond the scope of the average retail buyer? At this stage, we might still be considered in the early stages.

My indicator for this statement is the local news and the percentage of threads/reddits about "Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?"

P.S. FOMO is almost 0 too

Bitcoin transaction fees not at ATH, Twitter Bitcoin tweets per day not at ATH, Bitcoin monthly RSI only around 80..

If we have a normal BTC cycle (if economy dont start to suffer.... ratio: ˙(free jobs/people looking for job) = droping trend) than BTC have still power to go higher in my view

probettor91 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:29 am

Am I missing something from the whole picture, considering the feedback from many of my friends in other countries and based on the previous two Bitcoin cycles? We surpassed the ATH, but retail still seem disengaged with Bitcoin. What I mean is, in a few countries, mostly in the Balkans and Poland, there's virtually no Bitcoin hype compared to the same stage during the last cycle. Could this be dictated by the emergence of the "safer" Bitcoin ETF, or is Bitcoin still beyond the scope of the average retail buyer? At this stage, we might still be considered in the early stages.

My indicator for this statement is the local news and the percentage of threads/reddits about "Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?"

P.S. FOMO is almost 0 too

Then you make a mistake. We are not in the same stage like the last cycle.

In all previous cycles when BTC breached ATH in around 40 days was double the ATH price!
However this cycle is strange since is the first one that ATH is reached BEFORE halving! NoONE can predict future but logic dictates that at least 2x ATH can be achieved
Also sure enough I agree all indicators suggest that retail is not here yet! Not by a mile!!

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:51 pm

In all previous cycles when BTC breached ATH in around 40 days was double the ATH price!
However this cycle is strange since is the first one that ATH is reached BEFORE halving! NoONE can predict future but logic dictates that at least 2x ATH can be achieved
Also sure enough I agree all indicators suggest that retail is not here yet! Not by a mile!!

Doubling $1.43T Market cap, I want to be there to see it

I think we are in the early stage of retail incoming.
You are seeing in the wrong place.
Have a look at memecoins. Dont look only at btc and large caps.
BNB pumping is another sign.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 2:11 pm

Mark My Words..
9 March (may differ 1-2 days) will be a local top.
expect a 1-2 week downtrend starting by that time.
bull market will resume after 1 week or around 22-24 march. enjoy!

ps: if you think my views about btc romantic, i suggest you to read more about bitcoin NOBODY IS BULLISH ENOUGH!!

even we're in a bull season, ofcourse it doesnt mean there wont be any corrections, all eyes are on calendar, 9 march!

please do yourself a favor and READ (or watch) some ANDREAS ANTONOPOULOS!!

dump started yesterday as i expected. sorry about few days delay, it's still not perfect. need to make more adjustments.

expect to see the dips in next week. any weekend pump will be a delulu.
20-21 around those dates should be good times to ADD more btc.

REMEMBER,
Dips in BULL MARKETS ARE FOR BUYING!

btc will go above 100k this cycle, probably 134-155k.

enjoy the dips.
bearish trend will last only for 7-10 days.
fasten your seat belts after 25 march!
april-may will be crazy!

Sonny wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 15, 2024 4:58 pm

dump started yesterday as i expected. sorry about few days delay, it's still not perfect. need to make more adjustments.

expect to see the dips in next week. any weekend pump will be a delulu.
20-21 around those dates should be good times to ADD more btc.

REMEMBER,
Dips in BULL MARKETS ARE FOR BUYING!

btc will go above 100k this cycle, probably 134-155k.

enjoy the dips.
bearish trend will last only for 7-10 days.
fasten your seat belts after 25 march!
april-may will be crazy!

I am wondering how do you back these statements!

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 15, 2024 6:27 pm

I am wondering how do you back these statements!

gann model, ta.

It’s been a while since the last time I commented on Bitcoin price action and we already see a significant drop these last days. We are 12 days away from the March candlestick printing and if price stays as it is today, we will have a very bad Doji candle. Time will show what this Doji will look like.

In my view, this correction is good to happen provided that the top is not in. Thankfully, the rally stopped at 73-74K, and I say thankfully because if we would continue in this pace, the final top would be very near. It is always good to take a breath before continuing higher with fresh a stronger thrust.

As you understand, the important question to be answered right now is ‘’Have we seen the market cycle top at 73800. Of course, I can never be sure of what lies ahead, but I believe that we haven’t seen the market cycle top yet. On the other hand, it is obvious that 73800 might play the role of the mid cycle top.

Why do I say that the market top is not yet in? This is because of the technical indicators I follow. The monthly RSI is at 74 as we speak, and if the cycle top had to occur in March 2024, the RSI should be around 87.5. Have a look at the following graph:


Other reasons that makes me say the top is not yet in:

We haven’t seen the frenzy of the top yet. We haven’t seen the end process where strong hands sell their Bitcoin to newcomers and weak hands. In reality, this process already started with the ETF announcement, but it seems to me that only 30% of the Bitcoin held by strong hands was handed to the weak.

We haven’t seen the negative divergences in the weekly time frame. With no exception, all Bitcoin tops were accompanied by negative RSI divergences. We haven’t seen them yet. However, this statement comes with a very important asterisk. The next time BTC price passes 73.800, we must be very vigilant for a toping behaviour.

To sum up, this correction should not be something to be scared off. It is good to happen and it will help Bitcoin get to much higher levels. In addition, if it gets deeper, it might offer some opportunities for re-accumulation and reinvestment.

And of course, do you own Due Diligence.