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Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

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Sonny
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Mar 22, 2024 7:35 pm

crypto market is funny. sentiment changes faster then speed of light. 1 day is like 1 week here. INTERSTELLAR:))))

Can you believe bitcoin reached ATH 73,4 just 8 days ago?
unreal.
it feels like, it was longer time ago, yes?
now everybody and their mothers are bearish like polar bear.
i see in social media some people are waiting for 30ks. what a joke.
people who were praying for a correction are too scared to enter the market
marketmaker may try to scarce you this weekend, dont fall for the trap!

in this post, i like to tell you something very important.

MY OPINION IS,

THIS CYCLE WILL END BEFORE END OF 2024.
yes.

first we will see a top in may-june then crash.
then 2nd leg will start. when top? not clear yet i will write you when time is clear. when my barber calls it's time to sell harharharharharharhar

anyway, as i mentioned in my previous posts, 20 march was close to dip, i hope you took advantage of discount prices.
next 2 days may be bearish as well, or we may see some chop action there is nothing to worry about. just enjoy.
market should start become bullish after 25 but there may be few days delay as well. if something unique happens on 25 march and market crashes dramatically that day, (it's a possibility) keep in your mind it may take few days (max 5-6 days) for market to recover. if everything is good, bull run should resume after/around 24-25.

every dip is a buying opportunity, keep in your mind.
dips dont last long in bull market. enjoy!

ps: take some profits in may+june.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:47 am

Sonny wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2024 7:35 pm
crypto market is funny. sentiment changes faster then speed of light. 1 day is like 1 week here. INTERSTELLAR:))))

Can you believe bitcoin reached ATH 73,4 just 8 days ago?
unreal.
it feels like, it was longer time ago, yes?
now everybody and their mothers are bearish like polar bear.
i see in social media some people are waiting for 30ks. what a joke.
people who were praying for a correction are too scared to enter the market
marketmaker may try to scarce you this weekend, dont fall for the trap!

in this post, i like to tell you something very important.

MY OPINION IS,

THIS CYCLE WILL END BEFORE END OF 2024.
yes.

first we will see a top in may-june then crash.
then 2nd leg will start. when top? not clear yet i will write you when time is clear. when my barber calls it's time to sell harharharharharharhar

anyway, as i mentioned in my previous posts, 20 march was close to dip, i hope you took advantage of discount prices.
next 2 days may be bearish as well, or we may see some chop action there is nothing to worry about. just enjoy.
market should start become bullish after 25 but there may be few days delay as well. if something unique happens on 25 march and market crashes dramatically that day, (it's a possibility) keep in your mind it may take few days (max 5-6 days) for market to recover. if everything is good, bull run should resume after/around 24-25.

every dip is a buying opportunity, keep in your mind.
dips dont last long in bull market. enjoy!

ps: take some profits in may+june.

Interesting!! You are very precise when it comes to time and dates!!
Does your model predicts price ranges also?
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:53 am

I would like from you, Sonny, to explain more how did you come to those conclusions.
I don't have any idea, of how did you make those predictions.

Thank you.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:09 pm

This Sunday night we will have the printing of a weekly, a monthly, and a quarterly candlestick. You can understand the importance of this candle. Of course it is too early to say as a lot could happen in the next 6 days, but this candle do not look bad at all!

Sonny wrote:
arbusers wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2024 6:27 pm

I am wondering how do you back these statements!
gann model, ta.

Please elaborate.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Mar 29, 2024 7:53 am

As we are closing to the end of March and the end of the Q1 2024, I would like to speak about the ‘’narratives’’ of the crypto-sphere.

The ‘’narratives’’ are there to trick you and in a nutshell to take your money, or stop you from rightfully get your hands to other people’s money. Do not fall for them, and always be cautious when you see a ''narrative'' played repeatedly.

The ‘’narratives’’ are narrated by organisations and people who have interests in the market, or by parrots who get paid to narrate. Some examples:
1. The 2 big channels specialising in financial issues. If you notice, their bigger stock holders are the biggest global funds and therefore they compete financially with their viewers. Therefore, they have every interest to trick their viewers.
2. The twitter (now X), youtube and of course TikTok accounts who are getting paid by the interests. Let’s take the example of the great Comp/Tomp/Romp who never had any skin in the game, but he has a very strong opinion and a newsletter of more than 1 million emails. He quit the rebellious style of communication to adopt a more casual (and expensive) dressing for the CNBC appearances. Or the Youtube star who asked us to ‘’irresponsibly hold BTC and sh.tcoins’’ in the last cycle, now telling us ‘’not to f.ck up this time’’. These people are simply propagandists or Psy Ops operators trained to target you. Don’t fall for them when they preach a desirable truth. However, to be sincere, if you know how to read their mind and if you listen to them with a critical spirit, then your profits will be multiplied.
3. All other accounts with an influence in the market. Of course, the Velez Boys that have nothing to say, even though they became specialists to create graphics and cherry pick stats and data that would create fear and hope, the 2 feelings that guarantee maximum visits in their accounts. Other accounts with very good knowledge of the market, but in the end getting paid from Youtube and X for their views.

Now I would like to remind you of the idiot calling himself ‘’Master trader’’ who kept sorting BTC from $16.000 and turn bullish at $73.000. I am not saying this idiot is part of the organisation who tries to trick you. Not at all. However, the organisation is guaranteeing this idiot will be high in Youtube and will be called from other influential figures. The minute he finds his revelation (which I doubt will ever happen), he will be completely disappeared from any view.

And what are these ‘’narratives’’? At this point in time I am noticing the following:
1. The ETF and Wall Street adoption.
2. The 4 year cycle.
3. The right/left translated Cycle.
4. The PiCycle top indicator.

Mark my words all 4 of them will fail in the end. The market will manipulate the ignorant in a way that he will lose all the opportunities. Ever wonder why 98% of crypto investors are losing in the biggest bull run humanity has ever seen? In the coming days/weeks, I will post my opinion on these 4 narratives and why they will all fail to serve investors.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:31 am

arbusers wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2024 7:53 am
As we are closing to the end of March and the end of the Q1 2024, I would like to speak about the ‘’narratives’’ of the crypto-sphere.

The ‘’narratives’’ are there to trick you and in a nutshell to take your money, or stop you from rightfully get your hands to other people’s money. Do not fall for them, and always be cautious when you see a ''narrative'' played repeatedly.

The ‘’narratives’’ are narrated by organisations and people who have interests in the market, or by parrots who get paid to narrate. Some examples:
1. The 2 big channels specialising in financial issues. If you notice, their bigger stock holders are the biggest global funds and therefore they compete financially with their viewers. Therefore, they have every interest to trick their viewers.
2. The twitter (now X), youtube and of course TikTok accounts who are getting paid by the interests. Let’s take the example of the great Comp/Tomp/Romp who never had any skin in the game, but he has a very strong opinion and a newsletter of more than 1 million emails. He quit the rebellious style of communication to adopt a more casual (and expensive) dressing for the CNBC appearances. Or the Youtube star who asked us to ‘’irresponsibly hold BTC and sh.tcoins’’ in the last cycle, now telling us ‘’not to f.ck up this time’’. These people are simply propagandists or Psy Ops operators trained to target you. Don’t fall for them when they preach a desirable truth. However, to be sincere, if you know how to read their mind and if you listen to them with a critical spirit, then your profits will be multiplied.
3. All other accounts with an influence in the market. Of course, the Velez Boys that have nothing to say, even though they became specialists to create graphics and cherry pick stats and data that would create fear and hope, the 2 feelings that guarantee maximum visits in their accounts. Other accounts with very good knowledge of the market, but in the end getting paid from Youtube and X for their views.

Now I would like to remind you of the idiot calling himself ‘’Master trader’’ who kept sorting BTC from $16.000 and turn bullish at $73.000. I am not saying this idiot is part of the organisation who tries to trick you. Not at all. However, the organisation is guaranteeing this idiot will be high in Youtube and will be called from other influential figures. The minute he finds his revelation (which I doubt will ever happen), he will be completely disappeared from any view.

And what are these ‘’narratives’’? At this point in time I am noticing the following:
1. The ETF and Wall Street adoption.
2. The 4 year cycle.
3. The right/left translated Cycle.
4. The PiCycle top indicator.

Mark my words all 4 of them will fail in the end. The market will manipulate the ignorant in a way that he will lose all the opportunities. Ever wonder why 98% of crypto investors are losing in the biggest bull run humanity has ever seen? In the coming days/weeks, I will post my opinion on these 4 narratives and why they will all fail to serve investors.
Love your thoughts
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:15 pm

There is a part on your knowledge that have no relation with graphs, and numbers. Maybe we can call it, instinct. Or maybe we can call it, a very good long time-perspective, of the economic cycles, and the general speech of the masses.

Maybe this is the reason why you said that is difficult for you to share your kowledge.
Sonny
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sat Mar 30, 2024 12:39 pm

cortomaltese wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:47 am
Interesting!! You are very precise when it comes to time and dates!!
Does your model predicts price ranges also?
no price range unfortunately.
my model is time based.
it's based on observing onchain data, whale movements and human psychology combined with GANN analysis method.
GANN is father and founder of TA btw.

anyway, let's get to predictions! :D

bitcoin is accumulating and preparing for a big move to the UPSIDE. Still, I would not rule out probability of 65-66 (to fill cme gap) in weekend which seems not likely but still, there's a chance. if you're buying bitcoin at 60's, you should know you're buying next bear season's dip.

if you have a long term horizon/mentality about bitcoin (you better have!) you won't be regretful to buy and hold bitcoin at these prices. remember, trading bitcoin is a sign of lesser intellect. go ahead trade altcoins, not bitcoin. why take risk to trade something which will be priced in millions after a decade? not worth the risk without doubt. are you sure you understand bitcoin? bitcoin is not an investment tool.

bitcoin will start april STRONG, specially first week. probably we won't see 60's ever again for a VERY LONG TIME.
keep your eye on dogecoin on 1 april, it may pump big.
if you dont see bitcoin pumping like maniac right by 1 april or see some pullback dont panic. just wait and you will see bitcoin starts pumping soon.
euphoria is coming next week.
VERy BULLISH about bitcoin for next week.

things get complicated after 6-8 april so i better not make any comments for now. let's just observe. will make a new update after a week.

probability 1: bitcoin makes a local top around 6-8 april, then dump starts. bitcoin starts a mega run around 20-24 april.
probability 2: bitcoin keeps BULLISH momentum for the FIRST HALF of april. however, trend starts to change around 14-15 april and we see a BLOODBATH.

i don't really know which will play out, we will see.

friendly reminder: always hold some btc but make sure you enjoy your profits thru the top. buy some land, buy a summer house you name it but always keep some bitcoin as long hodl. why? because if you try to trade it, probably you will fuk things up. I never met a trader who was able to increase his bitcoin stack by trading. do not try to time the market. just wait and hodl and time will take care of the rest.

ps: june will be crazy.
ps2: bitcoin is likely to reach 85-155k this bull run. i would not rule out 200-245k but low possibility.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sat Mar 30, 2024 5:27 pm

You are talking about buying land and a sommer house thru the top. And that bitcoin may start a mega run around 20-24 april and june will be crasy. And at the very end of your post, you talk about Bitcoin likely to reach 85-155 this bull run.

85 is less than 15 procent from the recent high... Your post makes no sence to me and is confusing. If you believe that there can come a megarun in april and june will be crasy, how can you also believe that 85 can be the top of this bull run?
Sonny
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:45 pm

TheGreatDane wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 5:27 pm
You are talking about buying land and a sommer house thru the top. And that bitcoin may start a mega run around 20-24 april and june will be crasy. And at the very end of your post, you talk about Bitcoin likely to reach 85-155 this bull run.

85 is less than 15 procent from the recent high... Your post makes no sence to me and is confusing. If you believe that there can come a megarun in april and june will be crasy, how can you also believe that 85 can be the top of this bull run?
these are just predictions and this is my range for the first phase of the bull. if bitcoin doesnt follow a blow off top cycle this year, this run can extend to 2025. why not? we must be open to all probabilities and always do your own research.
things may go south, it's always a possibility to keep in your mind. 85-90k before summer not bad if you ask me.

never rule out 200-250k this cycle. i hope it explains.
i wish all a profitable april!

ps: keep an eye on ondo, rio coins. they're up for a great potential.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:09 pm

@sonny,

This is interesting, but you still didn't justify your opinions. For me, a justified opinion comes with reasoning, based on facts and/or data. What are your facts and data, other than simply mentioning a theory? Your wording makes you sound like an Oracle.
My way of acting is based on a modular sequence of interpretations of facts that I see in the public sphere, and data that I see in the charts that I study. This amalgam creates the justification of my actions. Of course, there are no certainties but I always try to have the odds on my side.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Sun Mar 31, 2024 7:42 pm

@arbusers what would you consider a healthy market behaviour that would guarantee the maximum performance with the minimum surprises?
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Apr 01, 2024 7:37 am

Doar pentru tine wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 7:42 pm
@arbusers what would you consider a healthy market behaviour that would guarantee the maximum performance with the minimum surprises?

Very clever question. At this stage in time and under today's circumstances I would prefer Bitcoin to gain $200 daily in price for the next 5-6 months and then go banana for a month offering a blow off top.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Mon Apr 01, 2024 1:56 pm

I now have the print of the March candle, and also the Q1 candle for 2024. Thus, I have a lot of data to crunch and interpret.

On the monthly time frame, March ended up being the 7th positive month in the row. The body of the candle is fat and it has short tales in both ends. Compared to the month of February, it is obvious that acceleration is slowing down significantly. However, these characteristics don’t look that bad, especially if I consider that mid March we had a very ugly doji, which is now corrected to a large extend. It is not safe to draw conclusions from March’s candle as I don’t see any strong characteristic that would bring in (or out) enthusiasm.

The monthly RSI tells me a different story, and as always, it offers more clue and data than the original candle itself. March’s monthly RSI closed at 76.8, having a roof of 87.6. This roof is descending (see graph below). Crunching the numbers using a very general estimation, I notice that if we were to touch the roof NOW, it would come with a price of $92.000 per Bitcoin.

Of course, it would be a mistake to take the above figure to the bank, because the RSI fluctuates and it is influenced by various market forces, while the descending roof could lower the exact top. The above figure is only given as a hypothetical anchor today.

BTC 1.png
BTC 1.png (412.96 KiB) Viewed 326 times

Moving to the quarterly time frame and I see another story. Now, if this is not a parabola, what is? The following graph indicates that we are 1-2 candles away from the cycle top. If nothing cataclysmic happens, then I can assume the top will be in somewhere between May and September 2024.

BTC 2.png
BTC 2.png (327.5 KiB) Viewed 326 times

To support the last argument, I would like to bring in the market sentiment and the chain analytics. In my view they both indicate that already the strong hands are selling to the weak hands. This process started at the ETF announcement and keeps going on with ups and downs until today. A smoke and mirror game is there to trick the ignorant. It is the inflows and outflows from the ETFs and the Grayscale sell. All mainstream analysts exclude Grayscale from the broader picture, but the naked truth is that all Grayscale BTC are to be sold.

Again, a very general figure would implement that some 35-40% of the BTC held by the strong hands are sold to the ignorant. Blending all these together, I come to the conclusion that I expect the parabola to steepen in the next months and a blow off top is underway somewhere during summer/fall 2024.

The overall picture of the market resembles to the picture of December 2020 - January 2021 right after the TESLA announcement that worked as a catalyst towards the technical top. This time is not TESLA, it is the ETF, and we should always think of different proportions.

And of course, do your own DD.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:49 am

UPDATE:

My model is based on watching whale patterns and liquidations.
There's some urgent update so i like to share with you.
Of course, we need a bigger sampler size for that it can be coincidence so always DYOR.

Correction is over or will end today in bitcoin. THere should be a rise in bitcoin between 3-6 april or 3-7 april.

8 APRIL IS A VERY RISKY DATE, 8-10 april.
There can be a world disaster, something terrible during those dates, a massive crash i dont know but whales are preparing for smoething, strange. So be careful and do not be surprised if we see a massive dump during those dates.

mid-month specially 14-15-16-18 should be correction again.
bull run should resume after 20-24 april. it will be an awesome bull run, alts will go to moon.
let's talk about may when may starts.

OVERALL, I CAN SAY Q2 will be amazing in crypto!

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