Arbusers

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 04, 2022 8:36 am

The dominance is 46% at the moment including Stablecoins but around 52% excluding them.

I think this is an important point. Stablecoins in my opinion should not considered altcoins but should be considered digital dollars. As long as btc is not yet the global reserve currency, stablecoins will play a very important role. Especially the tether test in the lightning network. I dont see their market cap going down anytime soon. It will only grow. Many people in China who dont have risk tolerance for holding bitcoin, hold stablecoins as a hedge against the CCP and some of them do commerce with it is only one example of the demand.
Stablecoins aside. i think bitcoin cant go lower than its previous bull market ATH as long as there is a normal bear market. The market showed it by absorbing the selling pressure of Luna Foundation bitcoins in a few days without capitulation. But if everything goes wrong and we go into a long global recession than nothing is sure anymore. Dont try to find the exact bottom. You may find yourself out of the market. Something that is undervalued cant stay like that forever. And bitcoin is undervalued (depending on your time frame). In an unreliable digital age, only reliable digital money can work.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 04, 2022 8:36 am

The dominance is 46% at the moment including Stablecoins but around 52% excluding them. In the past cycles Stablecoins were not abundant. Which is the correct variation of the metric to focus here and why?

Thus, Stablecoin Supply Ratio will keep going lower and when reaching a bottom it will signal an increasing potential to push BTC price higher?

P.S Could you recommend books on TA or any other discipline that helped with your investment analysis? I have a background in Economics.

Let's not get into academic style of Q&A because it will lead nowhere. Take the composition of the BTC dominance as it is given from Tradingview, no matter what is in it.

I have no analysis on how the Stablecoin Supply Ratio influences the price of BTC. Sorry.

Classic Technical Analysis is just 1 part of the 5 tools I use. It is accompanied by Elliott Wave Theory, Value Investing, Behavioural investing and market sentiment. Over the years, I have never seen any decent book that would go deep into T.A. Most of them are staying in the surface and they don't allow readers to dive deeper. Therefore, I can't suggest anything on T.A.

I feel blessed that some 25 years ago, I met a self educated expert in T.A. He was working for a Ship Owner from Chios, a very big name of shipping on a global level. Immediately we recognised the potential of each other. He allowed me to sit behind him when he was working with Metastock (equis) on his PC. I was watching him for hours, and when he could, he would explain things to me. Then life sent us in different places, as I had to work abroad for a couple of years. After that I started studying on my own.

T.A alone will not help you much. You need all 5 tools to become efficient and start making profits from them. As Ray Dalio once put it, being successful (in his level) in the stock markets is the equivalent of being an Olympic gold medal holder.

I'm yet to see someone predicting an accurate price with Elliott Wave analysis.

For sure, when we were previously at 64k, went down to 29k, then went up to 69k I didn't see anyone predicting a crash using Elliott Waves.

I saw so called Elliott Waves experts predicting either 120k, 300k, or 18k, or 8k, etc.

junoreactor wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:01 am

I'm yet to see someone predicting an accurate price with Elliott Wave analysis.

For sure, when we were previously at 64k, went down to 29k, then went up to 69k I didn't see anyone predicting a crash using Elliott Waves.

I saw so called Elliott Waves experts predicting either 120k, 300k, or 18k, or 8k, etc.

Do not expect any accurate price target from anyone, including me. It is only God that knows if any price is ever achieved.
It will be a success if someone gets the general direction, and then positions himself in the supercilium of the price. Then, the virtue of patience takes over.

Stars are aligning.

I believe we are getting closer to a major leg down that will bring the BTC price within my well defined box of accumulation period. In these last days I noticed altcoins being wrecked, which is a strong criterion that time for BTC is coming. At the same time, the ETH/BTC analogy is also slashed, breaking the support line I previously identified, and moving quickly to the psychological and important ratio of 0.48.


The dominance of BTC continues to rise, but it still has way to go until it gets to the desired levels. To do so, I expect a further annihilation of altcoins, and a deeper correction of the ETH/BTC analogy, that would ideally break the 0.48 level and get closer to the 0.40 level where an important battle will be given.

Above all, we want the BTC price to fall into our accumulation box, which seems very possible in the coming days, based on what the data suggests so far.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Welcome to the accumulation zone. Congratulations to those who made it until here with 100% cash in hand. What a feeling!


A successful DDCA strategy is more difficult than calculating an accumulation zone. I intent to break it into further pieces in a next post.

Congratulations. I feel blessed I met you.

Sitting today with the exact same amount of cash as in June two years ago when I ignorantly bought bitcoin based only on blind trust in the author of this thread. “Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial” ... bla bla bla. I know nothing is guaranteed, but following the shepherd in this case, is much better than trying to make conclusions on my own. Baaaa!

Meanwhile, there has been lots of carelessness. Like this morning, when a two month old buy order, that I had forgotten about, was executed way before the accumulation zone converting my entire cash to ether in a split second during a steep selloff. I got notified, panicked, and sold again loosing some percentages It happens. Once in a while a sheep deroutes from the herd.

Nevertheless, in the last two years, there has been nice profits and the end user (my wife) thanks you.

New buy orders have now been set in the accumulation zone and fingers are crossed for history to repeat itself.

VidaBlue wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:23 am

Sitting today with the exact same amount of cash as in June two years ago when I ignorantly bought bitcoin based only on blind trust in the author of this thread. “Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial” ... bla bla bla. I know nothing is guaranteed, but following the shepherd in this case, is much better than trying to make conclusions on my own. Baaaa!

Meanwhile, there has been lots of carelessness. Like this morning, when a two month old buy order, that I had forgotten about, was executed way before the accumulation zone converting my entire cash to ether in a split second during a steep selloff. I got notified, panicked, and sold again loosing some percentages It happens. Once in a while a sheep deroutes from the herd.

Nevertheless, in the last two years, there has been nice profits and the end user (my wife) thanks you.

New buy orders have now been set in the accumulation zone and fingers are crossed for history to repeat itself.

No reason at all to panic imho!
Even if you didn't panic sell i belive you still would be in the green give it a few months to a few years time! We are in a discount period and whoever buys from now on would be difficult to be at a loss after .. say 1-3 years! Still NFA just mho!

This is the right time to start buying the DIP / DCA. (mainly btc and eth - can buy some ada,dot or solana too).

I will now speak about the DDCA process within the framed accumulation zone. In fact, this is a process that demands precise execution, attention to the detail, and some times... luck. It is not something easy. Bottoms, like tops, are places of discomposure and therefore you can't take things for granted or interpret them deterministically.

Let's have a look at our graph again. I included some more elements that I know you will find them very interesting.


What do we see here?

1. We see 2 blue lines in the time period of 17 to 23 of June 2022. According to my custom made metrics, I expect a very important bottom to occur during these days. My metrics are signalling a potential day, but I think it would be too much to name the day, in a situation where everything is so fluid.

2. We see the the price target that is a derivative of the ascending channel. This price target is $19300. In cases like this, we should always give a 5% margin and therefore I would set the target of the channel at $20300.

3. We see the 200 SMA currently at 22150, an important landmark proved to be the end of 2 more bear markets.

4. We see the support of the 2017 highs at $19700.

5. We see a descending support line that today sits at $23000 and it proved to be a support for the 3rd time.

If I sum up all these, I notice that 17th to 23rd of June would be a key time period, and all these lines, trends and supports are meeting each other at the price range of 19.700 to 22700. I know DDCA is about dedicating more fire power as we go down, but in this case I believe the price range of 19700 to 22700 should be on the spot, and a climax of buying should be happening at this area. Of course, enough fire power should be saved for future use and as a reserve if price goes even lower.

As previously said, we can't interpret things in a deterministic way. There are other indicators showing even lower prices, but for now, this is the flashing price and time target. Also notice that I am already DDCAing BTC according to the strategy of this thread.

Of course, this is a strategy that is expected to work in the long run. I do not expect quick profits within days (you have youtubers for that), but I expect to ride the tidal wave of the next BTC cycle.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

A quick update.


The descending support line is no longer in the cards as it was breached yesterday night. The 200 weeks SMA was visited after some years and the price reacted, but not as a spring. That gives me a hint we will again revisit the 200 weeks SMA only this time we will go significantly lower.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Bought more DOT yesterday at $6.5, no brainer

junoreactor wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:39 pm

Bought more DOT yesterday at $6.5, no brainer

Chances are that whatever you buy now you ' ll be a winner.... but i would stick just to BTC ...ajde ETH right now, nothing else!

Do you still expect the dates between 17 - 23 of June to be where an important bottom will accur?