Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

arbusers · Wed Apr 03, 2024 10:16 am

There is a lot of discussion in regards to the nature of the correction that we see in the price of Bitcoin. Already, I see some people getting panicked. So I would like to say my opinion.

First, let me stress that panic is good when you invest/trade Bitcoin. History shows that those who panic first are those who enjoy the winnings of this market. However, it is important to know when to panic. Because if you panic early, you lose a lot of the potential, but if you panic late, you are getting trapped in the landslide. In my view, it is better to panic early than panic late. So it is OK to lose some potential for the shake of the safety of your well earned money.

So I believe we see an ABC correction of a big wave 4, after a big wave 3. This wave 3 is well defined, and it had all the characteristics of a wave 3. The sub-waves of the ABC correction are also having an abc style adding confidence to what I say. Have a look at the chart.

: BTC.png (433.6 KiB) Viewed 1446 times

Waves 4 are the waves with the maximum uncertainty and they come with interpretations that vary a lot. So you might ask, what are the potential targets of this correction? Theory says provides the following targets:

1. We have a flat creation and Wave C ends at the same height like wave A, and our target is 60800.
2. Wave C is equal to wave A and our target is $58800.
3. Wave C is 1.616 of wave A and our target is $52800.
4. Wave 4, ends at the height of previous wave 4 of 1 lesser degree and our target is 38500.
5. Since wave A has a sub-wave of abc, it could be pretty well be the end of the wave 4. If this is the case, the next days will be explosive bringing new all time heights.

Out of these 5 scenarios, the Elliott Wave Theory is not able to pick up 1 as a favourite. The market has its ways to surprise everyone. As I said in my previous post, this market resembles to a large extend with the period of December 2020/ January 2021 when the Tesla and the Elon Musk frenzies hit the market. Since this cycle looks a really fast one, I would put the following order in the scenarios, but again, do not take them to the bank: 1,5,2,3,4.

After the completion of the wave 4, a wave 5 is following giving us the chance to sell our bags and go for a vacation.

And of course, do your own DD, this is not a financial advise.

Lumberjack · Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:00 pm

Don’t you find it tempting to sell out now before the correction only to rebuy before the next uptrend?

I know that’s easy said than done, but it seems obviously from your words (others as well) that’s the most likely scenario

arbusers · Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:27 pm

Lumberjack wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:00 pm
Don’t you find it tempting to sell out now before the correction only to rebuy before the next uptrend?

I know that’s easy said than done, but it seems obviously from your words (others as well) that’s the most likely scenario

Good question.

In Cycle #3 it was easy for me, but in cycle #4 these type of actions became acrobatics. Take for example my unsuccessful trade of the ETF announcement back in January. In retrospect, I can say it was not executed as it should be. The market proved faster than me.

This is because there are much bigger boys in this market now compared to other cycles. It became harder to navigate. So maybe it is more prudent to follow a strategy based on the cycle, and not on the waves. If my calculations are correct, and if we are indeed in a 4th wave, the time of selling should not be far away. Maybe it is a matter of some months.

arbusers · Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:02 pm

Sonny wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:49 am
8 APRIL IS A VERY RISKY DATE, 8-10 april.

Intelligence services are speaking about an attack to Israel from Iran in the next 48 hours. I seriously doubt.

CharlieSheen99 · Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:25 pm

arbusers wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:02 pm

Sonny wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:49 am
8 APRIL IS A VERY RISKY DATE, 8-10 april.

Intelligence services are speaking about an attack to Israel from Iran in the next 48 hours. I seriously doubt.

Remember this;
CIA alerted about the Russian invasion of Ukraine with some weeks of advance.
In the first days of March they alerted about a terrorist attack in Russia.

If they are now alerting about an attack to Israel from Iran, we should take this advise seriously.

arbusers · Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:14 pm

Even if that happens, which as I said I seriously doubt, after the initial shock it will lead to a currency printing orgy that would lead to considerably higher prices for BTC.

arbusers · Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:53 pm

Today I would like to speak about the Pi Cycle Top narrative. This text is difficult so if you are used to various Capos, Gareths and Pomps, don’t lose your time, leave our forum alone.

I explained in previous posts the role of narratives and the way they are made and used to manipulate your thoughts in order to take the wrong decisions. Have a look at the older posts of this thread. As we are nearing the end of the cycle, I expect the Pi Cycle Top narrative to start playing massively in X, Youtube, TikTok and any other channel who is there to trick you.

The PiCycle Top is composed of the 111 day moving average and the 2x multiple of the 350 day moving average of Bitcoin's price. According to the narrative, whenever these moving averages cross, we have a cycle top with a margin of error of just 3 days. What is fascinating, is that the Pi Cycle Top was able to predict the previous tops of every Bitcoin Cycle. Just from the looks of it, it makes the ignorant believe that it is so powerful that can never be wrong. This narrative is so easy to swallow, that it is designed by default to completely destroy those who will follow.

Narratives are ‘’great’’, but there is also a reality. Reality says that Pi Cycle Top was invented after the 2nd Bitcoin Cycle with the task to fit at the purposes of finding the tops. It didn’t pre-exist, but it was fit to interpret the phenomena. Thus, it is not written in the stone, and there is no guarantee that it will be able to predict market cycle tops for ever. Being and studying markets for some 27 years now, I can say for sure that Mankind never found a metric that would accurately predict market tops. Ever.

But let’s have a look at the Pi Cycle Top from a chartist’s perspective. If you zoom in all Pi Cycle crosses, you will notice that the delta (δ) is getting smaller and smaller from one cycle to the next. The delta (δ) is the maximum difference between the 2 moving averages (111, 2X350) between the 2 crosses (up and down cross). This delta is telling me that Pi Cycle Top is getting weaker in time. In the last Cycle the delta was very difficult to be seen by the eye, unless a zoom in would focus around the dates of the cross.

What is the trap here? The 2 averages that consist the Pi Cycle Top use to continue upwards after the cross. By the time they turn south, the price of Bitcoin is digging very deep in the next bear market and you lose all the profits you could have by selling before the (potential) cross. Thus, you become the guy to carry the bags of the diamond hands. That is why Pi Cycle Top is a very dangerous narrative and fits very well to those who want to manipulate the ignorant investor.

: Pi Cycle Top.png (617.83 KiB) Viewed 1163 times

How to use Pi Cycle Top for your advantage? To answer this question, we must get in the head of the narrative teller. Just by having a simple look at the current Bitcoin chart, we can understand that Pi Cycle Top will flash at a price (give and take) $200.000. The diamond hands will not wait for this price. The diamond hands will try to sell their bags when 85-95% of the path is completed. In addition, they will ideally want to sell before the rhythm of the ratio starts getting slower. This will go hand in hand with a market frenzy.

And of course, this is not a financial advise. Do your own Due Diligence.

Sonny · Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:38 pm

Sonny wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:49 am
UPDATE:

My model is based on watching whale patterns and liquidations.
There's some urgent update so i like to share with you.
Of course, we need a bigger sampler size for that it can be coincidence so always DYOR.

Correction is over or will end today in bitcoin. THere should be a rise in bitcoin between 3-6 april or 3-7 april.

8 APRIL IS A VERY RISKY DATE, 8-10 april.
There can be a world disaster, something terrible during those dates, a massive crash i dont know but whales are preparing for smoething, strange. So be careful and do not be surprised if we see a massive dump during those dates.

mid-month specially 14-15-16-18 should be correction again.
bull run should resume after 20-24 april. it will be an awesome bull run, alts will go to moon.
let's talk about may when may starts.

OVERALL, I CAN SAY Q2 will be amazing in crypto!

looks very accurate so far!
there was a correction 'til 3 march. correction ended precisely by that dateand rising trend started after. now rising trend should end today or tomorrow.
big dump on 8-10 april
overall next week should be bearish. maybe early green tomorrow but then it will become red later.
8-20, 10-20 should be bearish BEFORE THE START OF MASSIVE BULL RUN which will start around 20-21 or 23-24.

Fasten your seat belts ladies and gents!

probettor91 · Mon Apr 08, 2024 1:08 pm

arbusers wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:53 pm
Today I would like to speak about the Pi Cycle Top narrative. This text is difficult so if you are used to various Capos, Gareths and Pomps, don’t lose your time, leave our forum alone.

I explained in previous posts the role of narratives and the way they are made and used to manipulate your thoughts in order to take the wrong decisions. Have a look at the older posts of this thread. As we are nearing the end of the cycle, I expect the Pi Cycle Top narrative to start playing massively in X, Youtube, TikTok and any other channel who is there to trick you.

The PiCycle Top is composed of the 111 day moving average and the 2x multiple of the 350 day moving average of Bitcoin's price. According to the narrative, whenever these moving averages cross, we have a cycle top with a margin of error of just 3 days. What is fascinating, is that the Pi Cycle Top was able to predict the previous tops of every Bitcoin Cycle. Just from the looks of it, it makes the ignorant believe that it is so powerful that can never be wrong. This narrative is so easy to swallow, that it is designed by default to completely destroy those who will follow.

Narratives are ‘’great’’, but there is also a reality. Reality says that Pi Cycle Top was invented after the 2nd Bitcoin Cycle with the task to fit at the purposes of finding the tops. It didn’t pre-exist, but it was fit to interpret the phenomena. Thus, it is not written in the stone, and there is no guarantee that it will be able to predict market cycle tops for ever. Being and studying markets for some 27 years now, I can say for sure that Mankind never found a metric that would accurately predict market tops. Ever.

But let’s have a look at the Pi Cycle Top from a chartist’s perspective. If you zoom in all Pi Cycle crosses, you will notice that the delta (δ) is getting smaller and smaller from one cycle to the next. The delta (δ) is the maximum difference between the 2 moving averages (111, 2X350) between the 2 crosses (up and down cross). This delta is telling me that Pi Cycle Top is getting weaker in time. In the last Cycle the delta was very difficult to be seen by the eye, unless a zoom in would focus around the dates of the cross.

What is the trap here? The 2 averages that consist the Pi Cycle Top use to continue upwards after the cross. By the time they turn south, the price of Bitcoin is digging very deep in the next bear market and you lose all the profits you could have by selling before the (potential) cross. Thus, you become the guy to carry the bags of the diamond hands. That is why Pi Cycle Top is a very dangerous narrative and fits very well to those who want to manipulate the ignorant investor.

Pi Cycle Top.png

How to use Pi Cycle Top for your advantage? To answer this question, we must get in the head of the narrative teller. Just by having a simple look at the current Bitcoin chart, we can understand that Pi Cycle Top will flash at a price (give and take) $200.000. The diamond hands will not wait for this price. The diamond hands will try to sell their bags when 85-95% of the path is completed. In addition, they will ideally want to sell before the rhythm of the ratio starts getting slower. This will go hand in hand with a market frenzy.

And of course, this is not a financial advise. Do your own Due Diligence.

I'm not sure if it's my confirmation bias, but your analysis always comes slightly before more active movement in the Bitcoin price. Either down or upside.
Interesting observation by myself.

arbusers · Thu Apr 11, 2024 10:07 am

I know it is premature and a number of scenarios could play out. But it worths mentioning that for the time being, Bitcoin price action seems to be forming a flag. According to classic T.A theory, flags within bull markets are signalling the continuation of the trend. More importantly, they show very distinct price targets.

In this case, the price target derives from the length of the pole, added at the exact point of the break through. Now, no-one knows the exact point of the break through, but for simplicity reasons I picked up one random point in the near future. Adding the pole at this point gives us a price target of approximately $106.000. Have a look at the following image:

: BTC flag.png (419.13 KiB) Viewed 909 times

Of course, as previously said, a number of scenarios could play out, and it is premature to adopt this scenario as the main one, but for sure it worths keeping it at the back of our head. The decisions that will be taken in the future will be a result of confluence among various factors (RSI divergences, Logarithmic MACD, etc). This should not be examined independently by other factors.

And again, do your own Due diligence, this is not a financial advise.

arbusers · Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:58 pm

There is a possibility that we have the formation of our flag. Of course, Bitcoin will do what it wants to do and it could offer more market structure and various outcomes. But if this formation stays as it is, we will have a very good hint about the destination of this cycle.

: Bull flag.png (350.48 KiB) Viewed 651 times

Do your own due diligence, this is not a financial advise.

Sonny · Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:03 am

Sonny wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 07, 2024 1:38 pm

Sonny wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:49 am
UPDATE:

My model is based on watching whale patterns and liquidations.
There's some urgent update so i like to share with you.
Of course, we need a bigger sampler size for that it can be coincidence so always DYOR.

Correction is over or will end today in bitcoin. THere should be a rise in bitcoin between 3-6 april or 3-7 april.

8 APRIL IS A VERY RISKY DATE, 8-10 april.
There can be a world disaster, something terrible during those dates, a massive crash i dont know but whales are preparing for smoething, strange. So be careful and do not be surprised if we see a massive dump during those dates.

mid-month specially 14-15-16-18 should be correction again.
bull run should resume after 20-24 april. it will be an awesome bull run, alts will go to moon.
let's talk about may when may starts.

OVERALL, I CAN SAY Q2 will be amazing in crypto!
looks very accurate so far!
there was a correction 'til 3 march. correction ended precisely by that dateand rising trend started after. now rising trend should end today or tomorrow.
big dump on 8-10 april
overall next week should be bearish. maybe early green tomorrow but then it will become red later.
8-20, 10-20 should be bearish BEFORE THE START OF MASSIVE BULL RUN which will start around 20-21 or 23-24.

Fasten your seat belts ladies and gents!

so far so good!
we're coming to END of bearish sentiment.
BULL RUN will carry on SOON.
as i pointed above, it should be around 20-21 or 22-23 april.
it wil be a PIVOTAL point.

don't be surprised if you see a green april candle.
may and june will be green as well but JUNE will be MORE GREEN.

i hope you bought (and still buying) all the dips.

arbusers · Wed Apr 24, 2024 6:54 pm

This is to inform you that I sold an additional 10% of my Bitcoin portfolio at $64800.

I will now explain the thought process behind this action which was predominantly based on market sentiment. The RSI action and other technicals had a secondary but supportive role.

Bitcoin price is ranging for some 2 months now. This is a long period for Bitcoin only seen during bottoming or toping processes. Even though the market sentiment is extremely bullish, price action is not showing any signs to follow this sentiment. Why do I say that market sentiment is bullish?

1. The big YouTube and twitter accounts unanimously are talking about a next and final leg up.
2. The Pump and Dump w.ore of Youtube, the one that asked us to irresponsibly hold and not to f.ck up this time, came back with a crescendo of videos. In these videos he repeatedly asked viewers to hold for 1 or 1 and half month, because we will have the banana period starting from June, accompanied with price targets between 200 and 400K. He also asked not to be characterised as a moon boy because of these targets.

Away from words that cost nothing there is a reality. This reality shows Grayscale selling more than 300.000 Bitcoin having left with an additional 300.000 to sell. The usual suspects who buy at any price publishing bonds for capitalisation do not show interest at this price range.

To sum up, it seems to me that we are having a game of delays where we receive promises and we give time.

The RSI do not show any appetite for genuine thrust and the components of key indicators (PiCycle top) are showing a fatigue. I am not saying that we had a cycle top, but I am saying that we might have seen an important top and market needs time to absorb and correct.

Putting all these to the test, I decided to sell that 10% for peace of mind and fight power for the future.

And of course, do your own due diligence.

apoel81 · Thu Apr 25, 2024 7:12 am

Thank you for the update mate

Eleftherios · Fri Apr 26, 2024 5:02 pm

@Arbusers

A big thank you for the update.

You are choosing to DCA out instead of lump sum which was the introductory approach of this cycle. I respectfully want to ask if the accelerated price action and earlier ATH is the reason for changing plans.

Also, you scaled out a 20% at $47.000 for risk management reasons based on TA. I want to spend a moment on your thesis back then on how to scale out later.

"Of course I could be wrong, but even if I am wrong I will happily sell a " bigger part of my portfolio at a higher price''.

Why are you choosing to sell now a smaller part (10%) that both prices and risks (market sentiment) are considerably higher?

What changed from the 1 to 2 4M candles remaining to the top, and the bull flag formation?

Is the last pump everyone is talking on social the wave 5 you mentioned earlier? "After the completion of the wave 4, a wave 5 is following giving us the chance to sell our bags and go for a vacation."

I appreciate the time you invest in helping navigate and understand these challenges.

Arbusers

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