Arbusers

A few personal observations on BTC not talked in the media.

On the 2W timeframe:

EMA9 (now 57.700) is strong support during the entirety of the bull.

There is a support line (blue) coming back from March 2020.

Volume level on the last red candle has not been that low since 2016.

2017 once we hit all time high it took 5 candles to break resistance. We are at candle 4.

We now have the print of the April’s candlestick. A monthly candlestick comes with a big importance as it has way more things to tell compared to weekly or daily candlesticks.


This candle is a red one and it is engulfing the candle of the previous month. It is a very bearish one, and indicates that hardship is in-front of us. Bearish engulfing candles are usually followed by negative candles, as it is a very rare phenomenon to see a bullish candle in a situation like this. This means that May is also expected to be a negative month.

There is a big question among Bitcoin investors and enthusiasts. Have we seen the market cycle top for this cycle? I believe the answer is no. This is because the smart money did not have enough time to off-load to the weak hands. We haven’t seen the mania of retail investors jumping in the market like no tomorrow.

The inflows from the ETFs stopped and I dont see any fresh money coming in the market. The usual suspects, the youtube w.ores did their job very well, they kept the market at a range where they would like to sell, but that was not enough in my opinion. They will need another push up to sell. The selling process already started, but it was stopped before getting into critical levels.

The NUPL, Net Unrealised Profit Loss indicator, shows that selling did not come to its climax like it did in previous cycles.This is illustrated in the following graph:


Mixing all things together, I come to the conclusion that Bitcoin needs more time until the mechanism persuades the ignorant to jump in. We may see a local bottom in May, so prepare for even lower prices during the month, followed by a pause to heal the trauma and then a final leg up. There is no time frame as we speak.

Again. The fact that I bought my Bitcoin during the market bottom process, allows me to be calm and play the waiting game that others can’t play. In addition, to answer to Eleftherios shortly, as I monotonically repeat in this thread, I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement.

Here it is time to re-asses my activity, and I am noticing a 2nd mistake that I will shortly mention. The 1st mistake was selling 20% of my portfolio after the ETF announcement. The 2nd mistake was selling only 10% of my portfolio when the Youtube w.ore came to a crescendo some days ago. Remember, it is the guy that asked us to ''irresponsibly hold'' during the previous cycle, now telling us to ''not to f.ck up'' and ''keep the lines for 1-1.5 months before going banana''.

Again, do your won due diligence.

Steve from "Crypto Crew University" says dont sell, buy dips, because we are in bull run. Is he one of moon boys cartel? He was wrong with call 35000, he says we will 100% hit 35000 this time or in 2026 bear market.

Yesterday was had the print of another weekly candle that I believe it is important.
Having a look at the stochastic RSI of Bitcoin, we are in-front of a textbook bullish crossover. If the bull market is still valid (and I believe it is), this crossover will result to a very violent move upwards. If this move is strong enough to invalidate the flag, then we will start counting the mirage towards a very important top, possibly the top.


However, if the flag is not invalidated, then further pain will be ahead.

And of course, do your own DD.