Arbusers

Sonny wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 1:51 pm

life became meaningless after i quit arbing.
i'm in depression maybe.
grabbing value and making money via arbing was addictive.
dont know what to do..
opinions/advices are welcome.

hopefully, there's bitcoin. i like studying and learning, talking about bitcoin. i invested huge amounts on btc since last year.
bitcoin will reach 100-150k in 1-2 year guys, you can be sure about it

I have an idea, maybe giving to newbies some advices for arbing

As I can undestand you are experienced arb player and some bullet points with advices will be important for some of us.

I also appreciate if we can talk via telegram or WhatsApp and answer& help me with some questions.

i think there is actually a psychological explanation for this depression of scaling back or stopping arbing/value betting.

When you are experienced/successful arber/value bettor you become like an emotionless machine for sports.

All that matters is the maths and numbers so you become numb to any emotion like up or downswings.

I find this has now applied for me to all aspects of life i.e. i have no emotional highs or lows for anything and you can see through things in everyday life easily like scammers or you tube gurus or even being happy about a little thing in life that goes well for you.

i dont know the answer but i try to play sports and exercise and find hobbies/go travelling places that make me happy and ignore all the noise just like when arbing/betting.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 24, 2023 3:19 pm

hi guys. you know arbing is dead. hopefully i made some money during my arbing adventure and created passive income resources. but sometimes i miss arbing. i feel bored, what you do? just curious?

Hello. Is it possible to contact you outside the forum, e.g. via telegram, to obtain valuable advice on how to make money from arbing, since you no longer earn money from it? There are countries where you can still make money on Arbitrage.

treblepop wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:20 pm

i think there is actually a psychological explanation for this depression of scaling back or stopping arbing/value betting.

When you are experienced/successful arber/value bettor you become like an emotionless machine for sports.

All that matters is the maths and numbers so you become numb to any emotion like up or downswings.

I find this has now applied for me to all aspects of life i.e. i have no emotional highs or lows for anything and you can see through things in everyday life easily like scammers or you tube gurus or even being happy about a little thing in life that goes well for you.

i dont know the answer but i try to play sports and exercise and find hobbies/go travelling places that make me happy and ignore all the noise just like when arbing/betting.

This is a good post.

A smart gambler is addicted to his own success. Arbing, trading and value betting, even though they have many differences, they have a lot of similarities. More importantly they all have repeated successful trades per day. A good Saturday would come with 50-200 successful arbs for example. This is a procedure that takes place almost automatically for a successful smart bettor. If it does repeat, dopamine floods our brain, creating a mild euphoria. Whenever we make a successful arb/sharb/middle/value bet or any other winning action, more small doses of dopamine flood to our brains.

Therefore, if we repeatedly have successful actions, we get higher and higher, even though one top is not that far away from another. This is the reason why smart gambling is so addictive and why smart gamblers would never trade their job for any other job. Effectively, they become addicted to their own success.

Now when this repeated action is taken away, it is logic to assume that we will pass a deprivation syndrome. Since we are not talking about drugs here, the characteristics of this syndrome might be close to a mild melancholy and depression. Maybe you could find better words to express it, but these are the words I choose.

And here is the catch. What is the important next step in your life? What is it that would bring the same amount of profits, the same amounts of fulness feelings, the same amounts of success in the end?

Some people made their next step in the real estate. These are the people that quit smart betting before 2020. The majority of those who quit after 2020 are heading to crypto and investments.

Make no mistake though, there are people who are still around in smart gambling and they still make A LOT of money. They do not brag on the TV or social media like these celebrities who pretend being professional gamblers. They stay in silence calculating their next move.

Guys, do me a favour not to share your personal POCs. It will be a pity to lose some valuable members. Ask whatever can be asked here in the forum so everyone would see.

treblepop wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:20 pm

i think there is actually a psychological explanation for this depression of scaling back or stopping arbing/value betting.

When you are experienced/successful arber/value bettor you become like an emotionless machine for sports.

All that matters is the maths and numbers so you become numb to any emotion like up or downswings.

I find this has now applied for me to all aspects of life i.e. i have no emotional highs or lows for anything and you can see through things in everyday life easily like scammers or you tube gurus or even being happy about a little thing in life that goes well for you.

i dont know the answer but i try to play sports and exercise and find hobbies/go travelling places that make me happy and ignore all the noise just like when arbing/betting.

Guys, you have to find hobbies. I have several hobbies. but my most intense hobby is collecting. You can collect many things, antiques, paintings, coins, minerals... It's unbelievable how much time it can take. And it's a really nice visible activity, you can leave behind a valuable legacy.

I originally didn't intend to post in this thread because I don't have the required experience to help here and reply to the thread's Author.

However, I would like to respond to these extremely valuable posts:

treblepop wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:20 pm

...
When you are experienced/successful arber/value bettor you become like an emotionless machine for sports.

All that matters is the maths and numbers so you become numb to any emotion like up or downswings.

i have no emotional highs or lows for anything ...

... ignore all the noise just like when arbing/betting.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:08 pm

...
A good Saturday would come with 50-200 successful arbs for example. This is a procedure that takes place almost automatically for a successful smart bettor. If it does repeat, dopamine floods our brain, creating a mild euphoria. Whenever we make a successful arb/sharb/middle/value bet or any other winning action, more small doses of dopamine flood to our brains.
...

Re-reading all these quoted posts, over and over again, has helped me look back on my journey across the sporting markets over the years.
Retrospectively:
- When I have processed various quantitative Data in the past times, when I have evaluated qualitative Data, and when I have calculated entry/exit market points through unnecessary unregulated passion (as user Treblepop called it "noise"), I have not been a successful player that time. I realized that unregulated emotions during the process of "forecasting", processing Statistics/Data, creating Trading plans and Money Management techniques and so on, sometimes cause distortions along the "actual state - desired state" axis.
- When emotions were self-regulated, success came. And in an unexpected amount. I suddenly saw a multitude of things that had always been there and I was prompted to process them, but in my previous state of Mind, I had not allowed them to exist.

In Brief: The strictly regulated emotions in terms of processing/trading/positioning/modeling of my portfolio of circa 12-15 kinds of sports are currently in the state of "No noise / emotionless machine" (according to the user Treblepop's term).

However, as the admin of the forum Arbusers says, the Joy, created by dopamine, is a very important feature in that kind of business. In my case, I can only afford the Passions/Emotions at the pure sporting level, looking at the current game, whose markets I'm involved in, or a series of games. But at the same time, the strict emotionless state is essential for Data processing, Forecasting/Modelling and market ins/outs.

My question to Arbusers/Treblepop - is that the optimal manner of doing things? Here's what I mean: is the optimal time to spend circa two hours watching great pre-selected Soccer/Basketball, respectively four or eight hours of Cricket (causing me great joy and amusement), while multitasking and modeling, and as a result, unknown numbers of triggers are expected in the end?
Or just cold trading (without joy), expecting a known range of triggers, 50-200, as you said in your post? I'll be glad to hear your Points of View.
Thanks in advance.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:47 am

My question to Arbusers/Treblepop - is that the optimal manner of doing things? Here's what I mean: is the optimal time to spend circa two hours watching great pre-selected Soccer/Basketball, respectively four or eight hours of Cricket (causing me great joy and amusement), while multitasking and modeling, and as a result, unknown numbers of triggers are expected in the end?
Or just cold trading (without joy), expecting a known range of triggers, 50-200, as you said in your post? I'll be glad to hear your Points of View.
Thanks in advance.

I would avoid an academic approach to this matter and I m quoting Charlie Munger that we just lost:
“I can’t give you a formulaic approach, because I don’t use one. And I just mix all the factors, and if the gap between value and price is not attractive, I go on to something else. And sometimes it’s just quantitative. If you want a formula, you should go back to graduate school. They’ll give you lots of formulas that won’t work.”

Trevorr wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:35 pm

treblepop wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 3:20 pm

i think there is actually a psychological explanation for this depression of scaling back or stopping arbing/value betting.

When you are experienced/successful arber/value bettor you become like an emotionless machine for sports.

All that matters is the maths and numbers so you become numb to any emotion like up or downswings.

I find this has now applied for me to all aspects of life i.e. i have no emotional highs or lows for anything and you can see through things in everyday life easily like scammers or you tube gurus or even being happy about a little thing in life that goes well for you.

i dont know the answer but i try to play sports and exercise and find hobbies/go travelling places that make me happy and ignore all the noise just like when arbing/betting.

Guys, you have to find hobbies. I have several hobbies. but my most intense hobby is collecting. You can collect many things, antiques, paintings, coins, minerals... It's unbelievable how much time it can take. And it's a really nice visible activity, you can leave behind a valuable legacy.

i collect coins too. i mean i collect bitcoins
i hope to leave a valuable legacy to my grandchildren in future..

very wise posts in the thread. definetely, i will focus on crypto and trading. maybe it can give me the dopamine and success feeling i had in arbing. thank you guys!

Sonny wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:44 am

i will focus on crypto and trading. maybe it can give me the dopamine and success feeling i had in arbing. thank you guys!

Don't do that. IMO a waiting game is safer than any trading, especially if we talk about Cryptos and BTC. Let me quote Charlie Munger once again: ''The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting''.
If done correctly, you will only have to buy and sell once, at the beginning and the end of the cycle. Anything else is just tricks to take your coins away.

do you think 4-year cycles still in play? maybe after blackrock, things can change?
on the other side, every cycle people say, this time is different. well, it's never different
still too many years before we reach hyperbitcoinization where everything will be priced in btc.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:07 am

do you think 4-year cycles still in play? maybe after blackrock, things can change?
on the other side, every cycle people say, this time is different. well, it's never different
still too many years before we reach hyperbitcoinization where everything will be priced in btc.

These questions do not fit here.
The 4 year cycle theory becomes a dominant narrative and that makes me think there might be something else going on. Time will show.
We do not know if that day comes. So far, all market people I know, and trust me I know so many, count everything in USD or EUR. Not BTC.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:07 am

do you think 4-year cycles still in play? maybe after blackrock, things can change?
on the other side, every cycle people say, this time is different. well, it's never different
still too many years before we reach hyperbitcoinization where everything will be priced in btc.

4 year cycle implies the halving cycle. The problem is most of the time the halving cycles were in the same times as the economical liquidity cycles so until it is not the case anymore we would not know the weight of each of them. I suspect the liquidity cycle will have a bigger impact in the future compared to halving since with each cycle the halving has half of the impact on the supply side.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 1:51 pm

life became meaningless after i quit arbing.
i'm in depression maybe.
grabbing value and making money via arbing was addictive.
dont know what to do..
opinions/advices are welcome.

hopefully, there's bitcoin. i like studying and learning, talking about bitcoin. i invested huge amounts on btc since last year.
bitcoin will reach 100-150k in 1-2 year guys, you can be sure about it

Play some fortnite mate

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:08 pm

A smart gambler is addicted to his own success. Arbing, trading and value betting, even though they have many differences, they have a lot of similarities. More importantly they all have repeated successful trades per day. A good Saturday would come with 50-200 successful arbs for example. This is a procedure that takes place almost automatically for a successful smart bettor. If it does repeat, dopamine floods our brain, creating a mild euphoria. Whenever we make a successful arb/sharb/middle/value bet or any other winning action, more small doses of dopamine flood to our brains.

Therefore, if we repeatedly have successful actions, we get higher and higher, even though one top is not that far away from another. This is the reason why smart gambling is so addictive and why smart gamblers would never trade their job for any other job. Effectively, they become addicted to their own success.

Now when this repeated action is taken away, it is logic to assume that we will pass a deprivation syndrome. Since we are not talking about drugs here, the characteristics of this syndrome might be close to a mild melancholy and depression. Maybe you could find better words to express it, but these are the words I choose.

And here is the catch. What is the important next step in your life? What is it that would bring the same amount of profits, the same amounts of fulness feelings, the same amounts of success in the end?

Some people made their next step in the real estate. These are the people that quit smart betting before 2020. The majority of those who quit after 2020 are heading to crypto and investments.

Make no mistake though, there are people who are still around in smart gambling and they still make A LOT of money. They do not brag on the TV or social media like these celebrities who pretend being professional gamblers. They stay in silence calculating their next move.

Nominated for post of the year.

Sonny wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:47 am

arbing i mean surebet. are you from turkey by anychance Abdurrahman abi?

I'm from Cyprus, I go to the north a LOT, my name is not Abdurahman at all and currently living in England.

I see that Surebet is like Rebel Betting, Bet burger etc.

However, having recently joined the Smart Betting Club members, I have not found the aforementioned bet generators listed apart from WinnerOdds and Trademate.

I went through the TCs and haven't spotted any wrongdoings in posting names. If I'm wrong please tell me and I will delete immediately