I need help understanding value betting
- NedlogViiibes
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
I actually think you should forget about the closing odds and follow the guidelines Alfa wrote in one of his posts. If you follow that, you should be doing well.
- csampion
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
Showmedamoney, I think you're approaching value betting with an arber's mind. It requires a very different approach, without "covering" bets or "arbing out".
Also it will require some knowledge of statistics - I'm not too familiar with that myself, but something I know is that, in regards to selecting an odds range, the more you move away from the 50-50% probability (i.e. odds of 2.00), the wilder the swings will become, in both directions. You know that But it makes sense to use a "symmetrical" range; by this I mean e.g. a range between 1.50 and 3.00, because these involve "inverse" probabilities: expressed in US odds, 1.50 is -200, and 3.00 is +200, so the probability that the outcome with odds 1.50 will happen is the same as the probability that the event with odds 3.00 won't happen. They have the same standard deviation (I hope I'm using the correct term). For this reason, a range between 1.90 and 3.50 makes less sense - odds at the higher end will have too high a deviation compared to the other end.
I used to hate US odds, but they're surprisingly helpful in certain situations, to know at a glance if something is an arb/valuebet or not.
Also it will require some knowledge of statistics - I'm not too familiar with that myself, but something I know is that, in regards to selecting an odds range, the more you move away from the 50-50% probability (i.e. odds of 2.00), the wilder the swings will become, in both directions. You know that But it makes sense to use a "symmetrical" range; by this I mean e.g. a range between 1.50 and 3.00, because these involve "inverse" probabilities: expressed in US odds, 1.50 is -200, and 3.00 is +200, so the probability that the outcome with odds 1.50 will happen is the same as the probability that the event with odds 3.00 won't happen. They have the same standard deviation (I hope I'm using the correct term). For this reason, a range between 1.90 and 3.50 makes less sense - odds at the higher end will have too high a deviation compared to the other end.
I used to hate US odds, but they're surprisingly helpful in certain situations, to know at a glance if something is an arb/valuebet or not.
- De Graaf
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
There is a relevant concise collection of information about the various nouns that are mentioned in this thread which I recall finding useful.
These are old SBR forum threads. Basically go to think tank --> sort by views --> look for threads started by Ganchrow.
Hope you don't mind the link:
sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html
Other titles are :
An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold,
Using Kelly to Determine Optimal Hedging Strategy,
Parlays,
Market Efficiency and Bayesian Probability Estimation via the Beta Distribution,
Expected Value vs Expected Growth Part I and II.
Happy reading.
Cheers
These are old SBR forum threads. Basically go to think tank --> sort by views --> look for threads started by Ganchrow.
Hope you don't mind the link:
sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html
Other titles are :
An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold,
Using Kelly to Determine Optimal Hedging Strategy,
Parlays,
Market Efficiency and Bayesian Probability Estimation via the Beta Distribution,
Expected Value vs Expected Growth Part I and II.
Happy reading.
Cheers
- showMeDaMoney
- Has experience
- Karma: 6
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-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was
1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes.
When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off.
I think I might adjust my odd range now, to possibly
$1.70 -> $3.30
Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI
Re: I need help understanding value betting
That makes alot of sense, because I've used two different software that can access statistical information via databases.csampion wrote: Showmedamoney, I think you're approaching value betting with an arber's mind. It requires a very different approach, without "covering" bets or "arbing out".
Also it will require some knowledge of statistics - I'm not too familiar with that myself, but something I know is that, in regards to selecting an odds range, the more you move away from the 50-50% probability (i.e. odds of 2.00), the wilder the swings will become, in both directions. You know that But it makes sense to use a "symmetrical" range; by this I mean e.g. a range between 1.50 and 3.00, because these involve "inverse" probabilities: expressed in US odds, 1.50 is -200, and 3.00 is +200, so the probability that the outcome with odds 1.50 will happen is the same as the probability that the event with odds 3.00 won't happen. They have the same standard deviation (I hope I'm using the correct term). For this reason, a range between 1.90 and 3.50 makes less sense - odds at the higher end will have too high a deviation compared to the other end.
I used to hate US odds, but they're surprisingly helpful in certain situations, to know at a glance if something is an arb/valuebet or not.
-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was
1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes.
When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off.
I think I might adjust my odd range now, to possibly
$1.70 -> $3.30
Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
- NedlogViiibes
- Gaining experience
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
"That makes alot of sense, because I've used two different software that can access statistical information via databases.
-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was"
I just found out softwares like this are used. Thanks - it really is easy to make money these days.
"1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes."
The odds on the soft side doesn't matter. Read the thread again. Figure out what it is with the Pinnacle lines that is so special.
"When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off."
Don't you see how random this statement is?
"Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI"
Good start and good luck. Do yourself the favor and read the thread again. And again.
-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was"
I just found out softwares like this are used. Thanks - it really is easy to make money these days.
"1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes."
The odds on the soft side doesn't matter. Read the thread again. Figure out what it is with the Pinnacle lines that is so special.
"When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off."
Don't you see how random this statement is?
"Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI"
Good start and good luck. Do yourself the favor and read the thread again. And again.
- testez
- Has experience
- Karma: 13
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
why do u complicate it so much? this thread is literary a "how to for dummies" that ppl made specially for you, but it seems u just want to overcomplicate things.
- showMeDaMoney
- Has experience
- Karma: 6
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
Yeah @alfa1234 you're correct there is no point in the parlay arb, you are just going to end up even money from that sequence of bet but still be down from the valuebet. Ignore what I wrote earlier.
But very good for clearing funds on certain bookies and maybe increase the time before you get limited.
@testez
why do u complicate it so much? this thread is literary a "how to for dummies" that ppl made specially for you, but it seems u just want to overcomplicate things.
You are correct, I'm going to shut up now, I think I've already pushed the boundaries in my beginner assumptions and incorrect thinking.
As said there is enough info, start to finish for anyone to get started.
But very good for clearing funds on certain bookies and maybe increase the time before you get limited.
@testez
why do u complicate it so much? this thread is literary a "how to for dummies" that ppl made specially for you, but it seems u just want to overcomplicate things.
You are correct, I'm going to shut up now, I think I've already pushed the boundaries in my beginner assumptions and incorrect thinking.
As said there is enough info, start to finish for anyone to get started.
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
- showMeDaMoney
- Has experience
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
I've been running some statistics on my runs.
When I choose Value, with no rules in place, apart from 1.7 to 3.3
My ROI is %2
When I systematically use the same rules but with a few tweaks that are taken from my arb experience.
My ROI is 56%
When I choose Value, with no rules in place, apart from 1.7 to 3.3
My ROI is %2
When I systematically use the same rules but with a few tweaks that are taken from my arb experience.
My ROI is 56%
- Alfa1234
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 63
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
Dude...stop...just stop and reread what you just typed. 56%...that is not a statistic, that's 10 lucky bets.
- showMeDaMoney
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- Karma: 6
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
Yeah its too early to tell.
But its more than 10 bets but not quite enough and ofcourse I realize the ROI will go down.
Actually I made an error with my spreadsheet, it was actually on 15%.
And after todays matches.
My handpicked value bets -> ROI = 66%
Value bets -> ROI = 52%
Wont post any more details to I at least get 100 on both sides.
But its more than 10 bets but not quite enough and ofcourse I realize the ROI will go down.
Actually I made an error with my spreadsheet, it was actually on 15%.
And after todays matches.
My handpicked value bets -> ROI = 66%
Value bets -> ROI = 52%
Wont post any more details to I at least get 100 on both sides.
- testez
- Has experience
- Karma: 13
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
i have the feeling you actually dont WANT to get it...
- showMeDaMoney
- Has experience
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I totally get it.
If it works out well, I will buy Alfa1234 an alfa
and NedlogViiibes a car of his choosing.
But I'm such a long time before that happens.
Re: I need help understanding value betting
I totally get it.
If it works out well, I will buy Alfa1234 an alfa
and NedlogViiibes a car of his choosing.
But I'm such a long time before that happens.
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Alfa1234
- Totally Pro
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
The fact you are here posting about an ROI without comparing it to the edge % you got on those bets, shows me you did not get anything from this thread at all. You are making bets and getting lucky, which is why I told you not to do it in the first place because it could turn around very quickly.
Prove me wrong and tell me what the ROI is you should have gotten off the bets you made, with a detailed explanation and the math next to it. Everything you need to be able to do that is in this thread.
Prove me wrong and tell me what the ROI is you should have gotten off the bets you made, with a detailed explanation and the math next to it. Everything you need to be able to do that is in this thread.
- showMeDaMoney
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- Karma: 6
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I've just been very, very lucky with a ROI of 42% and 100 bets, if run through another 900 bets, I may even run into a loss!
What should be done, is stop now, then recalculate my bankroll.
Then from that, work out what percentage of Kelly risk I want to use, i.e 30%, 100%.
Then every bet that is placed, that has an edge use Kelly to work out how much I should place.
Which is based on this formula against the current profitability (which is worked out from (pinnacle or bf) to soft.
KELLY = P * G -1
-----------------
G - 1
Then ensure I keep a spreadsheet or db or every bet.
Re: I need help understanding value betting
I didnt go into that level, but I can see what you are saying that in the long term i'm setting up for failure using this technique.Alfa1234 wrote: The fact you are here posting about an ROI without comparing it to the edge % you got on those bets, shows me you did not get anything from this thread at all. You are making bets and getting lucky, which is why I told you not to do it in the first place because it could turn around very quickly.
Prove me wrong and tell me what the ROI is you should have gotten off the bets you made, with a detailed explanation and the math next to it. Everything you need to be able to do that is in this thread.
I've just been very, very lucky with a ROI of 42% and 100 bets, if run through another 900 bets, I may even run into a loss!
What should be done, is stop now, then recalculate my bankroll.
Then from that, work out what percentage of Kelly risk I want to use, i.e 30%, 100%.
Then every bet that is placed, that has an edge use Kelly to work out how much I should place.
Which is based on this formula against the current profitability (which is worked out from (pinnacle or bf) to soft.
KELLY = P * G -1
-----------------
G - 1
Then ensure I keep a spreadsheet or db or every bet.
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
- showMeDaMoney
- Has experience
- Karma: 6
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
I'm re-reading this thread.
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.