Arbusers

Value Betting => Value betting talk => Topic started by: showMeDaMoney on May 30, 2017, 09:22:59 AM

Title: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on May 30, 2017, 09:22:59 AM
I've gone through the forum but I still dont quite understand which one is the value bet.

Lets take these 4 major bookies.
william
pinnacle
betfair
bet365

Then take into consideration the pinnacle lean
Which I think equates to the truest odds before the market move.
->https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/market-movement-in-betting (https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/market-movement-in-betting)

Then I watch youtube video on standard deviation.
https://youtu.be/gH-aCkLkpOI (https://youtu.be/gH-aCkLkpOI)

So which odd is the Value bet?


This match is also an arb with mixed rules between 365 and pinnacle

But the question I'm not sure, which one is value here?
If I had to take a guess based on watching the youtube video.

Konta at pinnacle is the value bet, is that how everyone sees it?
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on May 30, 2017, 10:56:15 AM
in a nutshell and without going into any detail:

Pinnacle and Betfair odds reflect the true probability.

Any odd you can get that is better (higher) than the odds they have is a value bet.

In this case your Bet365 odd of 2.1 for Hsieh has value.  None of the others do.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on May 30, 2017, 12:34:21 PM
ahh thx for that, I finally starting to understand it.

Incidentally Su won the match.
So value would have won .

Never seen a double hand forehand and backhand in pro tennis before.
Has to be one of the shortest skirts also.

Triple first for everything !!!
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on May 30, 2017, 04:22:21 PM
A good way to see if you have an edge over the bookmakers is if you beat the closing line from Pinnacle/SBO.

Pinnacle reflects the "true" probability for each outcome on big markets on average through their closing odds. So the Hsieh bet isn't necessarily a valuebet, as you would have to compare it with the closing odds. From the information we have currently - it probably is.

Going into detail you need to beat the Pinnacle lines with 2% due to their margin.

Example:

You bet Man U to win at odds 2.20.
When the match starts. Pinnacle offers odds 2.00 on Man U.

2.00*1.02 = 2.04

To find out your expected return from this:

2.20/2.04*100 = 107.8   -> 7.8%
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on May 31, 2017, 07:35:58 AM
Thanks for your explanation, @NedlogViiibes
I'm understanding it all perfectly now.

One of my pet projects was to see a list of matches (that aren't draws) and to see which bookmaker was able to offer the least amount of $ for winners
and the most amount of $ for losers.

Pinnacle came out on top, I think 5 dimes could be another website that can determine which is value(betfair, pinnacle, 5 dimes)

Usually when I run it, 5 dimes and pinnacle are up there.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on May 31, 2017, 09:06:53 AM
I don't think you really understand it yet if you think 5dimes can be a so called "base book".  5dimes is not "sharp", it's a soft book.  It does not matter which site has the best lines for losers, it matters which site has the odds that reflect the true probability of something happening.  Anything that pays out more than the true probability of that event would be value.

Let's say Pinnacle offers a tennis match and right before the start each player is at 1.96.  That means they both have a 50% chance of winning that game.  If you can find an odd that is over 2 somewhere, you now have a value bet as long term you will make money betting that odd. (let's say you found an odd of 2.1 and you bet that 100 times.  That would mean you would lose your bet 50 times and win it 50 times.  With a stake of 100 each time you would have lost 100 x 50 = 5000 but you would have won 100 x 50 x 2.1 = 10 500...giving you a total profit of 500 as your total stake was only 10 000).  There is ofcourse some variance to be expected, but your video should have taught you that 19 out of 20 times you can expect to be within the standard deviation results here...which means that 19 out of 20 times you will win between 40 and 60 of those bets.  As you would need 47 won bets to make a profit, you can see that over the long term, as your results will end up with a smaller deviation the more bets you place (you will get more and more towards a 50% win percentage long term) you will make money.

Why do Pinnacle and Betfair (and SBObet, perhaps even Maxbet to some extent for football) reflect the true probability odds (and ONLY them, NOT 5dimes or Bet365 or any other bookie you think may be sharp!)?
Because their odds are based upon the amount of money they receive on each side.  As soon as they start offering a market, bets start coming in...with each bet for a player the odd for that player drops a bit (and quite a bit for a max limit bet) so as more and more bets come in, an equilibrum (or balance) is found where the odds don't move much anymore with each bet.  Those odds have now been balanced by the 'weight of money'.  If Pinnacle opens a tennis match with 1 player at 1.85 and the other at 2.08..and a lot more bets come in for the player at 2.08 that means they priced him too high according to the market so the odds for that player will drop.  The market will slowly determine what the "best" price was untill they end up at something where a balance is found.  This could be 1.96 for player A and 1.96 for player B.  Betfair obviously works in the same way.

The closing odds have had the best adjustment as Pinnacle takes bets and adjusts odds untill right before the start of the game, and they have studied that their closing odds reflect almost completely correctly the true probability of something happening. Therefore, if you consistantly beat the Pinnacle closing line (-> you have found a higher odd than the Pinnacle odd was right before the start of the game) you have consistantly found value and will beat the market, so make a profit.

Also do not forget to take Juice into account.  If Pinnacle offers 1.9 and 1.9 for 2 teams, there is no value in finding an odd of 1.98 for 1 of those teams...you are beating the closing line but not the juice!  1.9 and 1.9 reflects there is a 50% probability (chance) of each player winning so you would need an odd of higher than 2 for it to be a value odd.


Because odds change all the time untill right before the start of the game, it's best to only bet value not too long before the start of the game.  If you find a value odd 3 days before the start there is a high probability your odd will not have value anymore at the start of the game...although one could argue there is an equal chance the odd will actually have more value as the odd on Pinnacle could also drop.  However, expect more variance in your results the more bets you place on games that still have 24hours to go before the start.  The expected end value should, imho, remain the same although others may argue against that.

Hope that's all clear...it covers the basics explanation of value and value betting.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: testez on May 31, 2017, 12:38:56 PM
one more thing that seems ppl take for granted. the advertised 2% margin on pinny lines is true only for a minor number of events.the biggest football league/matches, in general, big betting events.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on May 31, 2017, 02:39:00 PM
one more thing that seems ppl take for granted. the advertised 2% margin on pinny lines is true only for a minor number of events.the biggest football league/matches, in general, big betting events.

Which is also the events where you can be certain, that they reflect the true probability on average ;)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: testez on May 31, 2017, 05:22:54 PM
one more thing that seems ppl take for granted. the advertised 2% margin on pinny lines is true only for a minor number of events.the biggest football league/matches, in general, big betting events.

Which is also the events where you can be certain, that they reflect the true probability on average ;)

on most sports/events yes, i wasnt denying that.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 01, 2017, 05:01:35 AM
Thanks for that excellent explanation @Alfa1234, yes I'm wrong to mention 5 dimes as a possible lean.
As I'm not sure how they calculate their odds.

The only thing left is to give it a shot.
I might try 50 value bets at like 2% of my bank roll and see what happens.

I'll report back once I've finished.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 01, 2017, 09:06:57 AM
The above should have taught you that 50 is waaaaay too small a sample size to give accurate results.  You are simply gambling with a very small edge that way but there's a very big chance you'll end up at a loss.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: testez on June 01, 2017, 09:23:51 AM
Thanks for that excellent explanation @Alfa1234, yes I'm wrong to mention 5 dimes as a possible lean.
As I'm not sure how they calculate their odds.

The only thing left is to give it a shot.
I might try 50 value bets at like 2% of my bank roll and see what happens.

I'll report back once I've finished.

no no no.please, no. didnt you say you've read the valuebetting threads?i thought you did.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 01, 2017, 10:59:25 AM
loool, what do you mean?

 ;D

Have to be honest, I read quite a few, perhaps I should have read more.
but after reading this thread its all come together.

I've actually started but decided to try with 0.5% of my bank roll.
I'll try 100 and see what happens.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 01, 2017, 11:33:24 AM
If you are really going to try...please, make some rules for yourself first.

- First of all: forget about smaller markets like local basketball, volleyball and ITF/challenger tournaments.  Pinnacle/Betfair do NOT have accurate odds and DO NOT reflect the true probability in these games.  You need bigger games with lots of volume.
- 2.  Set some max and minium odds you want to take.  The higher the odds you take, the bigger the variance you'll see.  If Pinnacle has odds of 7 and you find an odd of 25 somewhere, this is huge value however you can still easily lose 20bets like these in a row and end up losing a good chunk of your roll.
- 3 adjust your stake according to Kelly criterium and the odds you take.  A value bet of odds 2.5 where Pinnacle has 2.0 should have a much higher stake than a value bet where you find 4.0 and Pinnacle has 3.5.
- 4 please, don't do it unless you have a clear plan and understand all of the above like the back of your hand.  You'll end up losing a lot of money, get frustrated, will start increasing your stake to chase losses and lose a lot more money.  I know your are anxious to give it a go...but just don't.  On top of that there is nothing going on right now besides tennis.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 01, 2017, 12:03:50 PM
loool, what do you mean?

 ;D

Have to be honest, I read quite a few, perhaps I should have read more.
but after reading this thread its all come together.

I've actually started but decided to try with 0.5% of my bank roll.
I'll try 100 and see what happens.

I don't think he was talking about your staking, but the variance involved in 50 bets. You need much more than that to see a clear picture (100 is not enough either).

Pay attention to Alfa's posts here. Good info in them :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 01, 2017, 12:37:02 PM
While we're at it, let's look at the difference between arbing and value betting as well.

Let's say Pinnacla has 2 teams with odd 1.96 right before the start of the game and you have a soft book with odds of 2.1.

Each outcome has a 50% probability of winning in this case.

If you were now to place 100 bets you'd get the following results:

Straight arbing with equal profit on each side would mean you'd bet 100€ in your soft book at 2.1 and €107.14 at Pinnacle.  This would give you a profit of 2.85€ every time regardless of the outcome.  Total profit 285.  No variance.

Arbing with the profit maxed out at the softbook and no profit on the sharp side would mean you'd bet €100 in your soft book at 2.1 and €104.17 at Pinnacle.  This would give you 50% of the times a profit of 0 and the other 50% of the time a profit of €5.83.  Technically, you'd end up with 291.5€ after 100 bets.  However, taking standard deviation into account, 95% of the time you'd end up anywhere between winning 40 and 60 of your profit bets.  Giving you a total profit between 233.2€ to 349.8€.  The other 5% of the times can be even a little lower or higher.  There is a high variance but overall you end up with more profit this way than straight up arbing.

Value betting would mean you'd straight up bet €100 at your soft book every time.  This would give you €100 loss 50% of the time and €110 profit 50% of the time.  So technically you'd end up with €500 profit after 100 bets.  However, taking standard deviation into account, 95% of the time you'd end up winning anywhere between 40% and 60% of your bets.  This would give you anything between a €1600 loss and a €2600 profit.  As you can see the variance here is huge but the potential profit is as well.

Summary:

Straight up arbing gives you a decent profit, no variance.  Profit guaranteed.

Arbing with profit maxed at the soft side gives you guaranteed profit which in general will be higher than straight up arbing, but variance can kill the higher profit short term.  Long term you are better off this way than straight up arbing.

Value betting could end you up with a big loss due to variance, however long term you will be better of as with a larger number of bets the standard deviation will drop and you'll end up winning closer to 50% of your bets.  Harder to do and you need more discipline and a good staking model.

Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: maletaja on June 01, 2017, 01:18:48 PM
Arbing is nothing more that you pay insurence bet to the pinnacle. And that bet costs you 2-5%. Its expensive
I think people should more value bet then they have 100bets you are quite safe. In my experience when i have started 5-10 bets soft book. I very rearly goes to zero. Practicalloy i have 5% value every bet

Only question is some bookies offer promotional 100% payout!
Lets say promotional bookie offers 2.0 2.0
pinnacle 1.9 1.9
How should i deal with that promotional offers?
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 01, 2017, 01:33:50 PM
If you are really going to try...please, make some rules for yourself first.

- First of all: forget about smaller markets like local basketball, volleyball and ITF/challenger tournaments.  Pinnacle/Betfair do NOT have accurate odds and DO NOT reflect the true probability in these games.  You need bigger games with lots of volume.
- 2.  Set some max and minium odds you want to take.  The higher the odds you take, the bigger the variance you'll see.  If Pinnacle has odds of 7 and you find an odd of 25 somewhere, this is huge value however you can still easily lose 20bets like these in a row and end up losing a good chunk of your roll.
- 3 adjust your stake according to Kelly criterium and the odds you take.  A value bet of odds 2.5 where Pinnacle has 2.0 should have a much higher stake than a value bet where you find 4.0 and Pinnacle has 3.5.
- 4 please, don't do it unless you have a clear plan and understand all of the above like the back of your hand.  You'll end up losing a lot of money, get frustrated, will start increasing your stake to chase losses and lose a lot more money.  I know your are anxious to give it a go...but just don't.  On top of that there is nothing going on right now besides tennis.

Wow amazing advice, I will keep that in mind.
Each of my bet that is value is also an arb, or close to an arb
It can be -2% to about %5

So I'm covering bets as I'm value betting. I doubt I will lose much money doing this.
Its more of a trial run, worst that can happen is a void/or limitation.
The hardest part is the closing price on pinnacle, that can make it a non value bet.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 01, 2017, 01:44:25 PM
I agree with your last post Alfa, but arbing lets you place a higher percentage of your bankroll, which means your profits will be higher, if you are not close to the limits from the bookmakers.

People tend to focus on a high yield rather than $$$.

@Maletaja

If you rarely experience a loss from 10 bets with 5% value, then you are nothing other than lucky :) It tells nothing at all. I read somewhere some time ago, that the record on a specific casino hitting same colour in a row on roulette was 28. That would be possible even if we got odds 10 on that particular colour all 28 times.

As for your question, then it is quite simple. 1.9/1.9 means 50% chance of each outcome (if the requirements are met earlier posted in this thread). We would need a bet that gives us more than 2.00 for it to be profitable.

The value of the bet is calculated like this:

% (probability of something happening) * odds = Value of the bet.

In this case

50 (based on Pinnacles current odds) * 2.00 (odds from soft book) = 100. We need a number higher than 100 for it to be profitable.

@Showmedomoney

"The hardest part is the closing price on pinnacle, that can make it a non value bet."

This is where the real challenge lies. Every betters goal should be to be able to bet at Pinnacle profitably.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 01, 2017, 02:52:47 PM
I agree with your last post Alfa, but arbing lets you place a higher percentage of your bankroll, which means your profits will be higher, if you are not close to the limits from the bookmakers.

This is very true as well.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: maletaja on June 01, 2017, 03:51:15 PM
Quote
The hardest part is the closing price on pinnacle, that can make it a non value bet.
Yes but price can move away as well. You win some or lose some. I theory you should be even
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 01, 2017, 04:11:58 PM
Quote
The hardest part is the closing price on pinnacle, that can make it a non value bet.
Yes but price can move away as well. You win some or lose some. I theory you should be even

What theory is that?
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: csampion on June 02, 2017, 06:23:47 AM
Quote
The hardest part is the closing price on pinnacle, that can make it a non value bet.
Yes but price can move away as well. You win some or lose some. I theory you should be even

What theory is that?
Vice versa: what theory says that it shouldn't even out long-term? Your question suggests that you have a different view. Is the chance of odds going either up or down not 50%? It could perhaps be argued that when a value bet is created due to pinnacle's odds dropping (when we're nowhere near the start of the game), then shortly afterwards pinnacle's odds could bounce back as it could have been only a temporary swing after some large bets at pinnacle, and so the value on the soft side wasn't really there... Other than this, I don't see why we couldn't take it for granted that odds movements (and therefore wins/losses) even out over time.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 02, 2017, 06:54:29 AM
Quote
The hardest part is the closing price on pinnacle, that can make it a non value bet.
Yes but price can move away as well. You win some or lose some. I theory you should be even

What theory is that?
Vice versa: what theory says that it shouldn't even out long-term? Your question suggests that you have a different view. Is the chance of odds going either up or down not 50%? It could perhaps be argued that when a value bet is created due to pinnacle's odds dropping (when we're nowhere near the start of the game), then shortly afterwards pinnacle's odds could bounce back as it could have been only a temporary swing after some large bets at pinnacle, and so the value on the soft side wasn't really there... Other than this, I don't see why we couldn't take it for granted that odds movements (and therefore wins/losses) even out over time.

You rely your bet on the fact that Pinnacle indicates the true probability. Pinnacle only reflects the true probability through their closing lines. Therefor we place our bet on something that isn't a good indication yet. The odds can move a lot and I don't think you can expect it to even out in the long term as it is completely random. That is why I asked the question - I'd like to get challenged my view with some good arguments.

If someone has a large enough sample size to show valuebets based on Pinnacle odds +48 hours before the start of the event. Possibly even with small arbs/valuebets - then we'd be done.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 02, 2017, 07:57:44 AM
Nedlogviibe, by saying that the movements are completely random you contradict yourself as that would indicate there is a 50% chance of a movement up and a 50% chance of a movement down.

I tend to disagree however and I say there's probably a bias toward the odds moving farther down and thus the value would increase more over time.  Reasoning is this:

For there to be a value bet, the Pinnacle odd has to drop a decent percentage all at once.  Enough so there is a fairly large discrepancy between the soft and Pinnacle.  If the move is more gradual, the soft books have time to slowly adjust their odds as well and there will be no value bet (because of the Pinnacle juice -> the difference between Pinny and the soft would not be large enough with a gradual move).  Usually when there's a fairly large move, this is because of some sort of news or new information that came out (e.g. a football player getting injured during practise and not playing).  As soon as the news hits, sharp players will pound that side on Pinnacle and create a value bet with the softs.  However, as more people are getting aware of this knowledge, the Pinnacle odd will slowly continue to drop for several more hours...giving you more value on your initial soft bet.

I have no proof of this and have no data, but have observed this many times.  It's often not a bad idea to immediately bet the Pinny line as well after a fairly large initial move as the line keeps steaming down and you'd end up with value in Pinny as well. 

My argument...no actual data though and it's only a theory.  :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 02, 2017, 08:17:33 AM
While I know what you mean with me contradicting myself, I tend to disagree. We don't know how the odds are created x hours before the start, so we try to make sense out of something we can't make sense out of.

As for your example, I believe it goes both ways. Sometimes the market does not react enough to teamnews. Sometimes the market overreacts the impact on certain news and eventually the market will adjust it self and get back to the real price.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 02, 2017, 08:28:28 AM
I also heard an argument once, that the sharp customers would bet the value side down to a payout of close to 100%. Which means the Pinnacle odds on the side with value (or the one that had value) will payout at ~100% and the other side will pay out at ~96%. This makes good sense, but I still haven't seen any actual data on it.

Example:

The match is 50/50. Odds is currently 2.10 on team A. The customers will bet Team A down to 2.00. So the closing odds would be 2.00/1.92.

In this case there is value in anything above 2.00 on team A, but if we beat the closing odds on team B with 2%, then we would still have minusvalue.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: maletaja on June 02, 2017, 09:01:41 AM
Nedlogviibe, by saying that the movements are completely random you contradict yourself as that would indicate there is a 50% chance of a movement up and a 50% chance of a movement down.
Recentle i had some soccer games pre odds were smth 2.0,x,x   pinnacle drop to 1.8 and i got 2.0
Just by accident followed odds prestart and pinnacle was 1.4!   Im not sure that odds bouncing back surely.
When dropping there is always reason for that
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: arbusers on June 02, 2017, 09:22:50 AM
You might want to take a look at the following link guys:
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html (http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 02, 2017, 10:03:50 AM
We can both come up with a lot of examples. One of the biggest matches lately between Huddersfield and Reading. Odds on Huddserfield started in ~2.57, went down to 2.22 (maybe lower) ended in 2.35. Mind you - this was not due to injuries, news or anything. This was simply the market finding the right price.

@Arbusers

Read through the link, but I don't see the discussion at hand answered.

This post from Skaggerak sums up the issues here:

"I started experimenting at the beginning of this season and am pretty much back where I started. I began using any exchange with good liquidity or sbo/pin as a reference point and then taking any outlier odds.
This hasn't had great results because even value-betting on the "weak" side of 4-10% arbs can prove unprofitable when the event or sport in question is not a major one and has little liquidity. Some of these are practically palps but the events in question seem to be very uncertain even on the "sharp" side as there is not enough money in the market to define the accurate representation of value, as others have said before it's quite difficult to define the weak or valuable side when the sport/event is not a major one.
I've been barely taking bets under a 3% threshold so thought I would yield some positive results regardless but I was obviously naive. Value-betting is a whole other area that I think requires different skills, it's probable that it has also become more difficult as the whole landscape of the industry changes to a more efficient model for the big companies"

Our goal should be to only make profitable bets. We can't be sure about the profitability in small markets or markets where the liquidity is still poor.

I agree that you will be profitable if you take the soft side of an arb with Pinnacle. I just think there are spots where we should leave the bet alone, as we don't have enough evidence on the bet being a profitable one.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 02, 2017, 07:37:08 PM
You might want to take a look at the following link guys:
[url]http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html[/url] ([url]http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html[/url])


Nice link, wow since 2013.
I feel like such a beginner.

I like the part of arbing and shifting the money towards the soft as a risk free test to arbing.
Im using a slightly different, more time consuming method, but I like that approach.


Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 03, 2017, 03:56:26 AM
With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 03, 2017, 08:18:46 AM
With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.

Why should odds 2.50 or greater be too high to be a valuebet?

If you got odds 2.50 on a coin hitting heads or tails, would you not take the bet?

What about if you got odds 3.00?

The odds (on the soft side) does not indicate the probability of something happening.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: testez on June 03, 2017, 11:28:50 AM
With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.

this thread alone is a goldmine for you and still u draw conclusions like this one. when u set up a rule regarding the  max odd u will take, the factor that should consider is the variance that u can handle or not.

a decent set rule for u :   min odd 1.25 - max odd 2.5         stake - 0.5 of BR     

get some experience under your belt and you will feel by yourself what and when to change.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 03, 2017, 12:27:46 PM
this thread alone is a goldmine for you and still u draw conclusions like this one. when u set up a rule regarding the  max odd u will take, the factor that should consider is the variance that u can handle or not.

Exactly, I think everything you really need to know about value betting is in this thread...other stuff you can figure out on your own with regards to your own risk profile..  Read it again and again untill you understand everything 100% .  Showmedamoney, clearly you don't understand it yet or you would not have made a statement like the one you just made...I really do not recommend you to start with anything yet as it can only end in disaster.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 03, 2017, 10:48:30 PM
thanks for the info, I did some calculation and can see why the odds don't matter.

In any case its early days at the moment, but I've picked 4 value bets out of 5.
Using some personal rules.
Will see  how we will go  after 100.


 
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 04, 2017, 09:26:38 AM
Considering the fact there is very little going on right now and you seem to be insisting on ignoring a lot of advice here...did you at least stick to high volume games?  :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 04, 2017, 10:33:21 AM
Thanks so much for your explanation, it would have taken me ages to figure it all out.
 I've taken everything on board, the only part that I've changed is a limitation on the odds.

A set of guidelines
# 1 - choose a bank roll, I've chosen 0.001% in my case
# 2 - find matches where the softbook at a greater odds than the pinnacle lean
# 3 - ensure at closing price there is still deviation.
# 4 - Stick to main events and not low leagues or unique sports.
# 5 - (personal rule added, limit odds below 3.50) (Can look at increasing that in future)
# 6 - (personal rule added, limit odds above 1.90) (Can look at increasing that in future)
# 7 - Don't chase any losses if they occur  and stick to the system.

I understand that the odds don't matter because you are beating the odds by a deviation and will win out in the end.
But to start off with, I want to try this based on some statistical data I've done in the past)



Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 04, 2017, 11:08:47 AM

A set of guidelines
# 1 - choose a bank roll, I've chosen 0.001% in my case
# 3 - ensure at closing price there is still deviation.


Nice, let me know how you can ensure #3 and we will both be very rich soon.  ;)

And 0.001% of your roll?  If your total roll is 100k €...you'll be betting 1 whole euro every time.  I can think of better things to do with your time.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 04, 2017, 11:26:16 AM
I wish I had 100k, my bankroll is not near that  :-[
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 04, 2017, 11:34:33 AM
You are not making sense...

If you could arb that bet it would still have value and you would be throwing away part of your edge by paying juice to the sharp bookie.  How would you parlay the bet after you've placed it?  And even if you could parlay it...I assume you mean add another value bet to it?  So you'd throw away the good value bet by adding the "bad" value bet to it?  If you were to arb the bet with a loss, you'd pay even more and make the loss even greater as you'd be adding sharp juice to the bad EV you already had.

Dude...just don't do it yet.  Seriously...every post shows your ignorance.  I don't want to be a d*** but you don't understand this stuff good enough to be value betting yet and it will end in disaster for you.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 04, 2017, 12:03:52 PM
Removing this part.

Totally off, don't want to lead anyone in the wrong direction.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 04, 2017, 12:28:29 PM
On average: Every time you bet with Pinnacle on their closing lines, you will lose 2% of your stake. This thread should tell you why.

So is it a good idea to sell out on a valuebet, that turns out not to be a valuebet anyway?

I still haven't figured out what a parlay arb (even if possible) would do of good things in this case, but I'll leave that.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 04, 2017, 01:30:51 PM
Actually my bad, I thought about this more, if you have already taken the soft price, its too late to parlay arb.
As you have already placed the bet.

Your only option would be to arb out at a loss.
I guess if your value bets deviated (to non value) and your stake was $100+ then losing 1-2% is better than losing 100%

I guess if you dont cover these deviated bets, you would need experience to know what percentage of these (soft arbs that deviated, ending up winning/losing) and how that affected your bottom line.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 04, 2017, 03:06:11 PM
Actually my bad, I thought about this more, if you have already taken the soft price, its too late to parlay arb.
As you have already placed the bet.

Your only option would be to arb out at a loss.
I guess if your value bets deviated (to non value) and your stake was $100+ then losing 1-2% is better than losing 100%

I guess if you dont cover these deviated bets, you would need experience to know what percentage of these (soft arbs that deviated, ending up winning/losing) and how that affected your bottom line.

You obviously won't lose 100%.

Earlier in the thread I told you how to calculate valuebets.

Lets say you took odds 1.90 on soft. As it turns out the Pinnacle price ends in 1.96.

1.96*1.02 = 2.00

1.90/2.00*100 = 95    -> we'll lose 5% on the initial bet.

If we bet the opposite outcome on Pinnacle just before start of game, then we would lose an additional 2% on this bet.


Everything is in this thread :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 04, 2017, 03:09:04 PM
I actually think you should forget about the closing odds and follow the guidelines Alfa wrote in one of his posts. If you follow that, you should be doing well.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: csampion on June 04, 2017, 04:00:14 PM
Showmedamoney, I think you're approaching value betting with an arber's mind. It requires a very different approach, without "covering" bets or "arbing out".

Also it will require some knowledge of statistics - I'm not too familiar with that myself, but something I know is that, in regards to selecting an odds range, the more you move away from the 50-50% probability (i.e. odds of 2.00), the wilder the swings will become, in both directions. You know that :) But it makes sense to use a "symmetrical" range; by this I mean e.g. a range between 1.50 and 3.00, because these involve "inverse" probabilities: expressed in US odds, 1.50 is -200, and 3.00 is +200, so the probability that the outcome with odds 1.50 will happen is the same as the probability that the event with odds 3.00 won't happen. They have the same standard deviation (I hope I'm using the correct term). For this reason, a range between 1.90 and 3.50 makes less sense - odds at the higher end will have too high a deviation compared to the other end.

I used to hate US odds, but they're surprisingly helpful in certain situations, to know at a glance if something is an arb/valuebet or not.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: De Graaf on June 04, 2017, 10:41:17 PM
There is a relevant concise collection of information about the various nouns that are mentioned in this thread which I recall finding useful.
These are old SBR forum threads. Basically go to think tank --> sort by views --> look for threads started by Ganchrow.
Hope you don't mind the link:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html (https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html)
Other titles are :
An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold,
Using Kelly to Determine Optimal Hedging Strategy,
Parlays,
Market Efficiency and Bayesian Probability Estimation via the Beta Distribution,
 Expected Value vs Expected Growth Part I and II.

Happy reading.
Cheers
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 04, 2017, 11:52:40 PM
Showmedamoney, I think you're approaching value betting with an arber's mind. It requires a very different approach, without "covering" bets or "arbing out".

Also it will require some knowledge of statistics - I'm not too familiar with that myself, but something I know is that, in regards to selecting an odds range, the more you move away from the 50-50% probability (i.e. odds of 2.00), the wilder the swings will become, in both directions. You know that :) But it makes sense to use a "symmetrical" range; by this I mean e.g. a range between 1.50 and 3.00, because these involve "inverse" probabilities: expressed in US odds, 1.50 is -200, and 3.00 is +200, so the probability that the outcome with odds 1.50 will happen is the same as the probability that the event with odds 3.00 won't happen. They have the same standard deviation (I hope I'm using the correct term). For this reason, a range between 1.90 and 3.50 makes less sense - odds at the higher end will have too high a deviation compared to the other end.

I used to hate US odds, but they're surprisingly helpful in certain situations, to know at a glance if something is an arb/valuebet or not.

That makes alot of sense, because I've used two different software that can access statistical information via databases.
-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was

1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes.

When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off.

I think I might adjust my odd range now, to possibly
$1.70 -> $3.30

Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on June 05, 2017, 08:50:48 AM
"That makes alot of sense, because I've used two different software that can access statistical information via databases.
-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was
"

I just found out softwares like this are used. Thanks - it really is easy to make money these days.

"1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes.
"

The odds on the soft side doesn't matter. Read the thread again. Figure out what it is with the Pinnacle lines that is so special.

"When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off."

Don't you see how random this statement is?

"Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI
"

Good start and good luck. Do yourself the favor and read the thread again. And again.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: testez on June 05, 2017, 11:41:51 AM
why do u complicate it so much? this thread is literary a "how to for dummies" that ppl made specially for you, but it seems u just want to overcomplicate things.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 05, 2017, 12:21:56 PM
Yeah @alfa1234 you're correct there is no point in the parlay arb, you are just going to end up even money from that sequence of bet but still be down from the valuebet. Ignore what I wrote earlier.
But very good for clearing funds on certain bookies and maybe increase the time before you get limited.

@testez
why do u complicate it so much? this thread is literary a "how to for dummies" that ppl made specially for you, but it seems u just want to overcomplicate things.
You are correct, I'm going to shut up now, I think I've already pushed the boundaries in my beginner assumptions and incorrect thinking.

As said there is enough info, start to finish for anyone to get started.  :D



Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 11, 2017, 06:50:29 AM
I've been running some statistics on my runs.

When I choose Value, with no rules in place, apart from 1.7 to 3.3
My ROI is %2

When I systematically use the same rules but with a few tweaks that are taken from my arb experience.
My ROI is 56%
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 11, 2017, 09:17:40 AM
Dude...stop...just stop and reread what you just typed.  56%...that is not a statistic, that's 10 lucky bets.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 11, 2017, 12:55:30 PM
Yeah its too early to tell.

But its more than 10 bets but not quite enough and ofcourse I realize the ROI will go down.
Actually I made an error with my spreadsheet, it was actually on 15%.

And after todays matches.

My handpicked value bets -> ROI = 66%
Value bets -> ROI = 52%

Wont post any more details to I at least get 100 on both sides.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: testez on June 11, 2017, 01:31:30 PM
i have the feeling you actually dont WANT to get it...
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 11, 2017, 02:12:17 PM
 ;D  ;D
I totally get it.

If it works out well, I will buy Alfa1234 an alfa  ;D ;D

and NedlogViiibes a car of his choosing. ;D


But I'm such a long time before that happens.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 11, 2017, 02:19:02 PM
The fact you are here posting about an ROI without comparing it to the edge % you got on those bets, shows me you did not get anything from this thread at all.  You are making bets and getting lucky, which is why I told you not to do it in the first place because it could turn around very quickly.

Prove me wrong and tell me what the ROI is you should have gotten off the bets you made, with a detailed explanation and the math next to it.  Everything you need to be able to do that is in this thread.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 22, 2017, 05:53:51 AM
The fact you are here posting about an ROI without comparing it to the edge % you got on those bets, shows me you did not get anything from this thread at all.  You are making bets and getting lucky, which is why I told you not to do it in the first place because it could turn around very quickly.

Prove me wrong and tell me what the ROI is you should have gotten off the bets you made, with a detailed explanation and the math next to it.  Everything you need to be able to do that is in this thread.

I didnt go into that level, but I can see what you are saying that in the long term i'm setting up for failure using this technique.
I've just been very, very lucky with a ROI of 42% and 100 bets, if run through another 900 bets, I may even run into a loss!

What should be done, is stop now, then recalculate my bankroll.
Then from that, work out what percentage of Kelly risk I want to use, i.e 30%, 100%.

Then every bet that is placed, that has an edge use Kelly to work out how much I should place.

Which is based on this formula against the current profitability (which is worked out from (pinnacle or bf) to soft.

   KELLY = P * G -1
   -----------------
        G - 1

Then ensure I keep a spreadsheet or db or every bet.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 22, 2017, 11:29:23 AM
I'm re-reading this thread.

Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 26, 2017, 01:17:03 PM
I was monitoring matches were the edge had gone, i.e dropped.
Dont worry I didn't place any bets

->  https://pste.eu/p/Vbi3.html
Would have had a loss of 10% loss in bankroll, thats why always important to have an edge!

Next, I'm working on a paper trail of 1000 bets using 30% kelly that have an edge to see what will happen to make bank account.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 26, 2017, 01:31:06 PM
You still don't get it...if your odd was 2.05 in the soft it does not mean the probability is 51%.  The soft odd has nothing to do with probability.

Reread the thread again.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 26, 2017, 02:07:35 PM
Yes I know that, the probability is determined by the odds at pinnacle lean.

I only added the probability data, so that I could use a bankroll, that used Kelly.
I just wanted to collect some data to see what would happen if I had some edge bets, but the edge dropped.
Thats all for the moment.

It looks like, not having EDGE was very unlucky and costly over the long run.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 26, 2017, 02:12:31 PM
I didnt have the pinnacle lean at the time, because I'm using some software atm and I didnt cross reference pinnacle.
But the automated software informed me that the EDGE had gone.

Thats all.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Alfa1234 on June 26, 2017, 04:00:57 PM
You still don't get it...but let me give you a hint: Pinnacle lean has nothing to do with it.  It's the closing odds.

You can use oddsportal to check the closing odds for those games.

Also: a lot of the odds in your list were NEVER above Pinnacle so I have no clue what you are doing...if that software told you those were valuebets at the time you should throw it out with the garbage right now.

Oh, and if you bet on Gamba Osaka VS Kawasaki and had a draw no bet...you should have gotten a void because it was a draw (1-1), not a loss.  You had the sandvikens vs Nykopins and that game result reversed.

Last post for me in this thread, it's pointless.  :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 26, 2017, 04:29:57 PM
Also: a lot of the odds in your list were NEVER above Pinnacle so I have no clue what you are doing...if that software told you those were valuebets at the time you should throw it out with the garbage right now.


Yep like mentioned above  the EDGE dropped, these were not Value Bets, they were at some point but the Edge dropped.
I just wanted to demonstrate that.

Don't worry, I fully understand this concept
#################################################
(value bet  = Pinnacle Closing Odd < Soft Odd Chosen)
or
(value bet = SBO Odd/Betfair < Soft Odd Chosen)

If Pinnacle Closing Odd > Greater than soft, then there is no value.

#################################################

Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 26, 2017, 04:33:05 PM
No the software is not garbage, I've gone through most of the bets and at least 75% are getting the EDGE correct most of the time.
But the developer did mention to me that there is a technical glitch at the moment.

So good work on noticing that.

Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: showMeDaMoney on June 30, 2017, 07:00:51 PM
My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: MUCHBET on July 02, 2017, 06:39:52 AM
keep us updated and tell us after 1000 bets - that also is far too little imho but gives a first idea ;-)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on July 02, 2017, 11:37:46 AM
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)

What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

Good job :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: NedlogViiibes on July 02, 2017, 11:38:52 AM
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)

What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

How much did you beat the Pinnacle closing lines?

Good job :)
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: mikey on September 17, 2017, 10:14:38 PM
My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.

Thanks for sharing
How big is your bankroll for that 1 week test period?
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: ppintaluba on September 17, 2017, 10:31:40 PM
100 bets each one being 1% of bankroll, so he bet all bankroll.
If 6% roi is 560, then bankroll should be 560 * 100 / 6 (almost 10.000).

Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Tipfro on December 21, 2018, 08:16:38 PM
If you are really going to try...please, make some rules for yourself first.

- First of all: forget about smaller markets like local basketball, volleyball and ITF/challenger tournaments.  Pinnacle/Betfair do NOT have accurate odds and DO NOT reflect the true probability in these games.  You need bigger games with lots of volume.
- 2.  Set some max and minium odds you want to take.  The higher the odds you take, the bigger the variance you'll see.  If Pinnacle has odds of 7 and you find an odd of 25 somewhere, this is huge value however you can still easily lose 20bets like these in a row and end up losing a good chunk of your roll.
- 3 adjust your stake according to Kelly criterium and the odds you take.  A value bet of odds 2.5 where Pinnacle has 2.0 should have a much higher stake than a value bet where you find 4.0 and Pinnacle has 3.5.
- 4 please, don't do it unless you have a clear plan and understand all of the above like the back of your hand.  You'll end up losing a lot of money, get frustrated, will start increasing your stake to chase losses and lose a lot more money.  I know your are anxious to give it a go...but just don't.  On top of that there is nothing going on right now besides tennis.
^

First of all much appreciation for the great input in different threads and food for thoughts.

I just started with valuebetting some days ago. First I tried to start arbing, but it is to hard out of germany (5% tax at most soft books so far and fast limits as well - that makes valuebetting not easier by the way)

I started with a small bank (for testing), using Kelly 30% and rebelbetting software. I accept losses at the beginning, while building up the sample and analyse afterwards which bets were good and which bad.

Regarding the first point. The very large majority of bets in the software are in smaller markets like european local bball, hockey or smaller football leagues, NCAAB. Whats an acceptable volume at betfair or pinnacle to know, when the odds reflect the "true" probability?
If just the big 5 in football and the major US-Sports reflect the true odds, it is hard to find enough bets I guess.

I understand the point, that low stakes could move the line at pinnacle, but I guess some guys are valuebetting also on smaller leagues and markets.
Otherwise it is quite a challenge to produce xx values a day and xxxx a year.

Its quite a challenge because of the 5% tax and thats why I think about taking every valuebet the software produces atm and creat a big sample size.
Or would you say wait and take your time. Bet your 10-20 bets the week, but stick to the big markets and volumes?
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: arbusers on December 22, 2018, 05:59:29 AM
I find it difficult to overpass that lethal 5% tax from Germany no matter if Arbing or Value Betting. In the end I don't see how you can beat this extra burden.
These lower leagues and small markets should be treated with extra care as there is a big possibility that someone is manipulating the market creating a value trap for you (and others). That means these markets are not creating any value for you, but rather the opposite.
I am not saying that you should restrain your bets to the Real Madrid-Bayern Munich level, but you could find 50-60 markets fulfilling some basic criteria.
For now, I would take all Value Bets you see in your software with a small stake. After gaining confidence and filtering the markets, I would select a smaller amount of events with a bigger stake, increasing it on a week by week basis. 10-20 per week would not help you.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: 4lexy4 on December 22, 2018, 07:55:13 AM
sory but big leagues with big payouts on sharps, just cant have so big yield. FACT, AMEN
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: Tipfro on December 24, 2018, 09:34:27 AM
There are still some books available without the 5% tax.

Also some values out there at books with 5%-tax, but they are tough to find.

Meanwhile I know what it means, when one say you need balls of steel while valuebetting.

After 80 bets -15% yield and ROI: 90%. I know it is a ridicoulos sample size, but it is really hard to believe in valuebetting (with an alert software) after such a start.
Title: Re: I need help understanding value betting
Post by: 4lexy4 on December 24, 2018, 11:22:41 AM
uffffff 80 bets and you are still in minus???? Look like your strategy dont work at all