BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
leading bet-broker, place bets with no limits

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - ODDS4STATS

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
1
ODDS4STATS / Re: ⚽ ODDS4STATS - Long-term profit with Value Betting
« on: April 09, 2019, 07:36:06 AM »
Thanks for the question and interest.

The Arbusers-O4S project is the implementation and optimization of a more than one year strategy. If you followed the AVBI index topic or you look back at the monthly summaries in this topic, you can see that this project has both upward and downward sections, with excellent profit at the end.

This continues to confirm the fact that sports betting is always worth thinking in the long run.

We drew the conclusions from the Arbusers-O4S project and from the other parallel strategies, and on that basis we fine-tuned.

Very good news that we are currently facing a major development with many positive benefits and surprises. You will have access to more data and with greater efficiency than even before .


2
We have two comparative data for March:

1. Result of O4S packages: The 7 packages together closed with -0.39% yield on 334 events. As you may know and we also do that we are capable of doing lot more.

2. Arbusers-O4S project: We had a 12.21% yield at 257 events. This was more than € 3,000 profit in March. This is a nice result.

At the same time, it has also been seen in the past 2 months that the O4S-Arbusers project has performed much better than the overall result of the 7 packages. We think, that small fixes can improve the effectiveness of O4S value events. In the future, the goal is to improve quality.

3
Is there something wrong with your website? Can't register, not receiving activation e-mail.

This may be a unique problem, because lots of registrations are received every day and we have not received such a report yet. Please check your spam folder to see if the activation email was there. If the problem still not solved, please, send us an email to support@odds4stats.com and we will activate your registration. Thank you!

Sorry for the late reply.


4
Your logical reasoning is good, but the situation is more complicated, because we use a more conservative strategy with Arbusers, ie the events are not exactly the same, only partially identical.

Another important factor is that we play about 50% more events in the Arbusers project, because we are trying to get the most out of new and regular strategies with varying success.

Let's look at February in the language of numbers:


1. Cummulative result of all the seven O4S packages: 268 Events 40.30% Hit rate, -1571 € Profit, and -5.86% Yield

2. O4S-Arbusers project: 230 Events 45.22% Hit rate, 1348 € Profit, 5.68% Yield


Interestingly, there was less event in the last project.

Thanks

5
How much money did you bet to earn 13k?


We placed bets on about 4500 events in 1 year, and app. 300K €-s total amounts. It is important to note that we are able to raise our bets, because the limits allow this.

6
As you know, Arbusers started a long term research project, AVBI (Arbusers Value Betting Index )  in February 2018. This one year project resulted a very good €13k (€13,164) profit to this day!

Dear O4S-team
I really appreciate your work and subscribed to this project. I would even be interested in buying all your picks. But maybe there should be a more reasonable price for this? If we take the AVBI example, the calculatation looks like this:
It would have costed 653 € per month to buy your picks for all KEYS & VALUES PACKAGES ....12 *  653 € = 7,836 €, so the cost would have been 60% of the total win (13,164 €).

So I think the approach is really good. It would be good to be able to buy all your picks for one price.

Great comment, thank you!

After publishing the new O4S value packages, we are trying to assess market needs in the first 3 months. There is only a monthly subscription option at odds4stats.com at the moment. In the near future, we will develop other constructions according to your needs.

But to give a tangible opportunity, we can say that since other users have already subscribed for bundled packages, please contact us privately for discounts: support@odds4stats.com

7
Since the release of the ODDS4STATS value packages on January 24, our packages have produced a weaker period. We consider it important to report weaker periods as well, because our goal is not to scam or to communicate only positive values and results.

Based on our experience so far, and thanks to our long-term strategies, such periods are not surprising. That is why we know that the next rise is coming soon. Our subscribers are satisfied with our performance and results. Thank you!

Let's look at the numbers:

1.) Out of the 7 O4S value packages, Tips Lips gave the best results in the period of 24/01/2019-28/02/2019. The Tips Lips package has earned 1017 unit profit at 49 events with 100 unit stakes.

2.) The weakest performance has been made by the Bang Roll value package. The Bang Roll package has earned -1094 unit profit at 63 events with 100 unit stakes. 

Certainly this amount of data is not representative, this way we did not made a deep analysis.

Anyway, we know that the "wave is always straightening". Examining both extreme cases, we can say that these are extremely good or, on the contrary, extremely wrong periods.

In the next few days, we will report about the results of these packages for the previous month, comparing to the O4S-Arbusers project.

8
Recently many users have asked us about how O4S calculates value. That's why we wrote a comprehensive post to give you an insight to O4S value creating process. So we can make things clear for you.

The O4S value, ie how O4S calculates the value, consists of the following filtering. Each key factor is an equally important filter!

1. O4S Database

The O4S database is accessible to everyone! (Value Miner, Value Miner +) It contains more than 400,000 events since 2009. From these data, we obtain simple characteristics for a tournament, such as
- in MLS, it is worthwhile to favor domestic teams
- it is not worth putting a high odds on Brazilian Away teams
etc.

Of course, we create characterization to all the leagues, and these are reviewed year by year.


2. Unique mathematical calculation (similar to Elo-rating)

We use a self-developed program for this calculation. We have reformed the Elo-rating method and we have created a database of more than 115,000 events. We analyze championships and cup series also since 2013. We are able to filter in the database in numerous ways (league / cup / home / draw / away / odds range / streak / dropping odds / increase odds, etc.)


3. Pinnacle spread changes / main line changes, and dropping odds

Based on our observations, a dropping odds or a line change that has been caught at the right time is a great help in selecting an event. In fact, in this case, we "read the odds" and we process the responses given by the bookmakers.
 
Like in the previous point, in this database we store more than 65,000 events for leagues and cups. We analyse the line movements in this data. We also have data about amazing movements (up to 6 line changes).


The above 3 key factors build on each other to create the O4S value. This way the O4S value formula is: O4S Big Data + Elo-rating + Dropping odds = O4S Value.


Some more thoughts for O4S value:

If all this would not be enough, the results obtained in the 3 filtering modes are also compared with each other. Because programs are developed by people, we pay special attention to not giving a chance to confirmation bias mistakes. Therefore, we try to objectively evaluate each theory from the opposite side as well.

After setting up theories and hypotheses, the creation of the strategy comes, which is always followed by a back test. The back test takes place back to 1-3-5 years in time. If the back test is successful, we validate the results. After that, there is a long-lasting live test that we validate again and again. On the basis of these considerations, the O4S value is generated.

The 3 databases indicated above, ie championships / cups, are continuously analyzed in both, periodic (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, seasonal) and batch numbers (eg 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000) aspect to get the most accurate picture about the expected probabilities.

 
Summary: As you can read, we do not use the traditional (sharp vs. soft bookies) value definition at O4S. If we would do, we would never be able to make bets at Pinnacle or Betfair. With this method, we have earned more than 3.5% with our bets at sharps (so, not just at Pinnacle, and often even higher odds)! Obviously, the yield is higher at the soft bookies.


We will publish more about the 3 type of O4S databases indicated above in the near future.

9
As you know, Arbusers started a long term research project, AVBI (Arbusers Value Betting Index )  in February 2018. This one year project resulted a very good €13k (€13,164) profit to this day!

After several analyses of this period we fine tuned our ODDS4STATS (aka O4S) value betting strategies and services. Our goal remains to support smart betting and smart gamblers with our unique value betting solutions.

See the results below:


IMPORTANT:
- On the chart above, in tooltips, you see the start and end date of the one year AVBI period (Feb 2018 and Feb 2019)
- The charts show the whole working period of these strategies from Aug 2015 to Feb 2019!
- The information and results below the charts refers also to the period of Aug 2015 - Feb 2019.

All the seven O4S value betting strategy packages are public on odds4stats.com with full details. Check each of them.


Moreover, O4S value betting tools (Value MinerValue Miner+) are FREE!


If you follow us in this topic, we will show you how these value betting strategies work. We will also publish important and useful information about value betting, step by step.

Follow us here or start using O4S value betting strategies on odds4stats.com. We would like you to create better strategies than ours with FREE O4S value betting tools.

Stay tuned.

10
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 08, 2019, 02:59:23 PM »
The last 4 O4S tips:

- Kidderminster 3.14 Marathonbet
- Forfar 1.94 Pinnacle
- Dumbarton 2.26 Betfair with 2%
- Club America 2.30 Pinnacle

You can check and see, 3 bets is basebook, and 1 is soft.
We have a unique and self-developed mathematical formula.

11
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 08, 2019, 06:17:08 AM »
Thank you Arbusers this post. We would like to emphasize, how objective Arbusers's analyses and thoughts are.

Some important thoughts:

At the beginning of February 2018, our target was an average monthly yield of 5-6%, which, based on the preliminary estimates, meant about 50% profit compared to the investment. Of course, the costs should also be taken into account here, but since the plan was completed successfully by the end of the year, we can be satisfied.

At the same time (as Arbusers and we also wrote earlier) after raising the stakes, we had 1 positive month and then 2 negative ones, which had a very strong effect on the final result, unfortunately negatively.

Reality for the future remains a 5-6% monthly yield, what we can beat the base and soft bookies with, using our strategies. The amount of our data is representative, so we still believe in quantitative analysis that guarantees realistic and sustainable returns.

In addition, it is also important to say, that the stakes can be raise significantly. We just have to catch the right time for the raise (or for the entry point). Hard task.

Good news, that the day is very close when ODDS4STATS will provide much more assistance to ODDS4STATS users than ever before. Stay tuned!



12
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: December 20, 2018, 11:59:15 AM »
We want to remain factual: the current Marathonbet account, used by ODDS4STATS, is beyond the 1000 placed bet. This account has been alive since the beginning of 2018 and has generated a yield of 7.64% from the beginnings, which of course means more payments. Arbusers can confirm it.

Again, we add that we avoid arbitrage with our bets.

13
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: November 28, 2018, 10:53:30 AM »
Thank you for your response and positive feedback to our post!

Yes, indeed, there are others in the AVBI index portfolio. Arbusers can confirm it if ODDS4STATS represents a big fraction of the index or not.

We are sure that it was not the greed that lead us to the decision we brought. In spite of the large number of available data, we did not model precisely enough, but we also included the intuition of the decision, which should not be used for a specifically math-based analysis.

We learned from it. As we have done before, we will still be objective and remain calm even when it comes to bet-handling. We're based on numbers, not on the intuition.

As far as Marathonbet is concerned, by our experience, there are 2 tricks that we suggest to pay attention to at this office. One is fixed bets. The other is to avoid the arbitrage position.

2484 events, 10-11 bets/day: Yes, thanks to our many years of thorough collection and data validation, we have a huge sample data. At ODDS4STATS our approach is that the result of a strategy is representative only when we reach at least 500 bets in that strategy.

We think, that beating the soft bookies is not rocket science (everyone knows what bookies we are talking about). However, to override base offices requires much higher qualifications. We will also be writing about our experience, information and ODDS4STATS related methodology.

Thanks again for the inspirational professional feedback!

14
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: November 26, 2018, 04:36:50 PM »
We, the ODDS4STATS team think, that it's time to leave a comment on the AVBI forum.
 
Our thoughts have two main goals:
- Sharing with you the changes, experiences and important conclusions of the past period.
- Give you an insight into how the ODDS4STATS odds strategy creation works.

 
First of all, it is worth knowing:
The mission of ODDS4STATS is to offer top tips and tip-strategies for our users to be successful in sports betting, based on our bigdata, validated accurately and with high-level maths, analyzes and strategies.
 
1. The AVBI portfolio and the lessons of the past 1 year:
 
From the launch of the AVBI portfolio, ODDS4STATS performed very well over the Q1-Q3 of this year. The numbers showed the results themselves, so we did not have to comment on Arbusers' regular reports. In this period from February to September, during the 2484 events, Arbusers' unit charts showed a 9.89% yield. This was, of course, an awesome period. But we do not want to talk about this period now. But the next one, having very important conclusions.

From the beginning of September, until the end of October, we ran into a very strong downswing. We are adding, we expected, and even we waited for the fall, but not to such an extent. This period, after about 1000 events, showed -7.74% yield on Arbusers' unit chart!

This negative period has led us to find the mistakes and focus on our strongest, most promising strategy.

It is worth knowing again, that the ODDS4STATS team has consistently processed data for years. Database is analyzed and verified record by record. We analyze short- and long-term basis as well and this way we forecast the results for the future. Some of our strategies have proven for more than 3 years that we have been on track, we are on the rigth way.

2. The main problems and conclusions, of the past period

2/1. One of the main problems of the past period is that Marathonbet - and several other soft bookies - have rearranged their market activity so far. One of the most important changes is that they do not give very early and very high odds.
 
Yes, Marathonbet, I know now many people shake their heads. But based on our calculations and algorithms, we can work at high quality level with Marathonbet data. However, this office has surprisingly high liquidity opportunities in a high reputation market. Reasonable game and no limit! The Arbusers can confirm this.

The change in Marathonbet has had a strong effect on our performance, since we could make 20-30% of our bets earlier to Marathonbet's events. At this time it is only 5% now!
A similar problem is the termination of WilliamHill's "Boost odds" promotion, which did not help us as well.

We would add that it is very important to know that ODDS4STATS does not want to beat soft book offices, but base offices. Fortunately, because of our enormous and very accurate quality odds database, our possibilities seem endless.

2/2. Another thing that everyone should be very careful to keep in mind when working with a large database!
 
There was no strong drop in yield for months that we waited for with the Arbusers colleague to have the right entry point to raise our bets. After the long wait, we tought that the start of the new season by mid-July will be fine to raise our bets.

It was predicted that there was going to be a downturn, but this period came about 1.5 months later than the we tought.

It is a very important lesson and a conclusion that before deciding to raise, you have to predefine the extent of possible downturn (eg. 250 events with -10% yield or 500 events with -7.5%), thus reducing any losses. But experience says that we can not be prepared for all extremes, because the extreme records will be also beaten again and again - do not have illusions. However, we did not wait for the accurate drop - we made a mistake! Do not make this mistake!
 
And where are we going now?
 
We have analyzed and have been thinking a lot about market changes, and we have taken the right steps to be aligned to the bookmakers' changes. It was enough to fine tune, we did not have to radically modify our previous strategies. After the refinements, the results are appropriate again. With these thoughtful steps we decreased the risks, and we are very positive about the future!

We will continue to be constructive, and we will continue to develop. Therefore, and looking at the needs and requests of our users, a very positive progress and development is expected soon in the life of ODDS4STATS. This will bring strong advance to ODDS4STATS users over other sports bettors. Soon we will announce this, stay tuned!

15
ODDS4STATS / Re: ODDS4STATS Fundamentals
« on: August 28, 2018, 08:56:13 AM »
Thanks for the valuable thoughts, you wrote a very good example.
It is extremely easy to construct a bad hypothesis from misleading or non-relevant statistical data and deceive ourselves, so I agree.
What we are publishing is a kind of "thought-provoking" so users are able to see "behind the numbers".
We also wonder why the numbers are being what are they and whether it can be explained or not.
Specifically, I'm saying that we have to "lead" the numbers and not the other way around.

I am asking Arbusers to share the statistics of our current collaboration, such as match numbers and ROI. I do not think that this will have to be explained specifically because Arbusers is given an objective opinion and O4S accepts the rating given by Arbusers.

Based on the experiences of the past period, I think we will be giving great help in the future to successfully process the database, we are working on this guide now.


Pages: [1] 2 3 4