Value betting guide.

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Arbusers
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Value betting guide.
« on: August 16, 2013, 07:55:33 PM »

I noticed that there is a growing interest in value betting among members of our community. Recently, our friend pescu23 started a thread about pinnacle’s money flow.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1350.0.html
Because of this thread, a number of members exchanged pms with me  and we had the chance to present good ideas to each other. Some of these ideas were very simple, that even a small fish from mainstrean forums would understand, some were very complicated.
Now, i m going to present an easy way to practice value betting. This way, is not for big volumers. On the contrary, it is for players with modest bankrolls and low profile action.
Facts:
1.   Over these last 10 years, I had arbing action in the sharpest possible level. The odds that I got, was probably the best odds available in the market. That includes softbooks (WillHill, lads etc) and basebooks (Pinnacle Betfair and the Asians).
2.   Every year, and I mean every year, there was a cash flow starting from basebooks, ending in softbooks. That means that I was winning a lot with softbooks and at the same time I was losing a lot with basebooks.
3.   If we analyze fact #2, we will come to the conclusion, that basebooks are winning money from their players, even if these players are the sharpest on earth. On the other hand, softbooks are losing money from these clients. How much is that money that softbooks are losing? It is the total of the money lost with basebooks, plus the % of the arb.
4.   Fact #3 doesn’t mean that softbooks like bwin and willhill are losing money. They are not churches (even though church is a highly profitable company too). They are companies listed in stock markets and they must pay their shareholders, and believe me, they pay them very well. So how do they generate profits? How could they accumulate enough money to pay sharp players like us and shareholders together? It is the small fishes, the dump money let me put it this way, that keeps this industry alive. It is people that you see in other forums, willing to bet 20 euros on their favorite team, while eating pizzas and drinking beer in front of their TV. How many people? Millions and millions.
Now we are done with facts. It is time to take these facts and use them efficiently in order to make some money. In fact, we are targeting a part of this above mentioned dump money, that when it comes to our hands will automatically become smart money.
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Arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2013, 07:56:20 PM »

After describing these facts, let’s see who is making money.
1.   Arbers. Yes, that is right. Arbers are making money, but there are some obstacles (that you all know) that set an expire date to their action.
2.   Basebooks. It seems that they found a mysterious way in order to make money.
3.   Bookmakers that milk the dump money. Unfortunately I can’t become a bookmaker, because I need many millions to start this company.
So what is left for me? I can become an arber. Yes we all know that…or…I can copy basebooks.
There is a reason why basebooks always represent the right price of every bet. We will not discuss it here, because it will not allow us to focus on value betting.
Taking all these facts under consideration, we must find a way, how to bet like these basebooks. Here is the way:
Alert services are showing us arbs. Most of these arbs, are enabling 2 or more softbooks with no basebooks enabled. In that case, we have an arb, and we bet all outcomes to secure a profit. Remember, this way is for players with modest bankrolls and low profile action. No big bets are allowed here because we probably don’t know what kind of bets they will allow us to place.
Now suppose that a basebook is enabled. In that case, we understand that basebook holds an advantage, while softbook holds a disadvantage. Since money is moving from basebooks to softbooks, I decided to bet only the leg enabling the softbook, leaving basebook to it’s luck.
The above mentioned phrase is hiding a lot of anarchy and chaos, since I didn’t set the appropriate parameters. Let’s bring order by setting these parameters.
We want to reduce luck and promote maths. To do so, we set a ‘’to win’’ amount. Unfortunately, this to win amount can’t be high, simply because softbooks will not allow me to bet high. Every player will choose a different ‘’to win’’ amount. For simplicity reasons, I choose 1000 euros.
Suppose that the odds that our alert service shows from the basebook is 2.5. We will bet 400x2.5=1000.
If the odds are 5, we will bet 200x5=1000. If the odds are 10, then we will bet 100x10=1000.
If we have a 3 way outcome, then we follow the same tactic betting 2 legs, but not the leg of the basebook. This is not handy, because it enables more money and requests more time and efforts.
In case that we have a multi way outcome, then we can bet on the soft odds given by our alert service. If for example we have a 2/2 of a HT/FT bet in odds 30, then we could bet 30x33.33=1000
Using this method, we make sure that a losing streak will not suck our bankroll and we spread all potential risks and all potential profits equally. Eventually, at the end of the season, we will have a profit. The biggest the number of our bets is, the more profit we will have. The biggest the ‘’to win amount’’ is, the more profit we make.
If you want to keep a bigger ‘’to win’’ amount, you must bet only in big leagues and avoid using Mickey Mouse bookmakers like Interwetten. If your expectations are low, then you could use Mickey Mouse bookmakers too, but using a lower ‘’to win amount’’.
Also, you could use 2 set of ‘’to win’’ amounts. For example, 1000 euros for Willhill Ladbrokes bet365 etc, and 200 euros for Interwetten and other Mickey Mouse bookmakers.
This tactic is the best one that a successful and experienced tipster would follow. This is the way, how separate top tispters from garbage.
As said before, this tactic is aiming the modest player. I will return back with a new article, presenting a system for bigger boys.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2013, 07:58:38 PM by Arbusers » Logged
onliner
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2013, 08:29:38 AM »

Yes, Arbusers. You are right about all that. But it looks better than it is in real life.
I tryed this tactic for several seasons but returned to arbs. The reason - dispersion of results   is unbeliveble HUGE. It's easy to be at negative balance during monthes of hard work. Really I know a man who used the same tactic and was just above break even after 2 years of using.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2013, 09:09:04 AM by onliner » Logged
OddStorm
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2013, 09:02:43 AM »

I should agree with onliner,

After several years of "watching" arbitrage generation and conditional bet simulation I should say that there is no universal condition or a rule of betting based on arbitrage situation, which on long term lead to profit. Or at least our research can not find such.
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ArberPro
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2013, 12:52:30 PM »

I do value betting only on arbs higher then 3% and you can't do value betting like arbing take every bet you can,you should know something about the sport,feel were is great value.
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Arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2013, 01:05:19 PM »

there is no universal condition or a rule

Indeed there is no universal rule. We are working with probabilities and past performance.
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Arbitrator
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2013, 04:41:07 PM »

Thanks for an interesting read, although I don't know yet what to think about it.

I don't see mathematical prove of the "edge" I need, I only read about long term we lose money to sharp books, if we accept this fact, we need to ask ourselves why this is happening to understand the consequences.

Winnie-the-Pooh-Books move odds slow, but if they move them, the change can be drastic, a A 1.8 - 2.3 B, can become A 2.3 - 1.8 B, because they need to be balanced, so actually the odds only indirectly correlate with reality most often, odds correlate only with money. This behavior is completely different to sharp books. Softies lack control, without control their risk level rises long term, might this be the main reason, why we win with them long term, I guess so?

Might this be the edge we are looking for?

I analyzed my last 3 month's with Pinnacle and present the results below. It would be great to analyze a much bigger sample size, but I have what I have, maybe some arbusers do the same with min. a couple thousand bets?

Sample: 840 bets in 3 months
Results: 52 Cancelled, 477 Lost, 311 Won

a.) Let's go deeper on 477 Lost, only 72 (~15%) of those had odds below 2.0, so betting on the softy only if sharpy offers odds >2 should optimize results?

b.) On the other side, out of 311 Won, 190 (~ 61%) had odds above 2.0, which destroys the theory of optimization, but on the other side proves that Pinnacle is excellent at picking losers, and if we win at Pinnacle it's rather a surprise (odds >2.0)

c.) Bottom line is, financially I really lost to Pinnacle, which makes me win at softies.

Our problems with limits will still stay the same, as we take the highest odds at the bookie, and value bettors look like arbers to them, with one big difference, if a value bettor loses some games in a row, and then the limits start etc..he might be in the red, after 3 weeks, 3 months, 3 years, while an arber almost surely is in the positive. The value bettor will also have a more rollercoaster experience in life, up and down, some like the thrill, I don't.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2013, 11:45:35 AM »

I should agree with onliner,
After several years of "watching" arbitrage generation and conditional bet simulation I should say that there is no universal condition or a rule of betting based on arbitrage situation, which on long term lead to profit. Or at least our research can not find such.

You're kidding me I guess? It's a fact, certain as law of gravity that you win in softbooks and lose at sharp books like Pinnacle over longhaul. Where did you made your research, in circus? :D

I do value betting only on arbs higher then 3% and you can't do value betting like arbing take every bet you can,you should know something about the sport,feel were is great value.

Agreed with Arberpro. Also money management is important. If you act agressive, you may not survive since you will have losing periods too. You may be betting value odds at softbooks but still you're not invulnerable to losing streaks. I'm -160,000€ at Pinnacle this year but even I had periods where I won a lot at Pinnacle and lost at softbooks..it happens. But over long haul, you're leaving a fortune on table by covering other side at Pinnale. (If you're arbing between softbooks, then it's another story!)
« Last Edit: September 15, 2013, 01:29:11 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged

Summer, Sun, Beach!
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2013, 08:02:48 PM »

If you want to take your chance with Value Betting but scared of risk, you can use risk-free method also. It works this way,

You're simply arbing but leaving the profit on softbook side.

For example,

When arbing you make like this,

Chicago +100 (2,00)
New York +120 (2,20)

Arb value is %4.76.
You can risk 1200€ on Chicago at 2,00 and New York at 1091€ for 109€ profit regardless of result.

Or..

You risk 1200€ on Chicago at 2,00.
And just 1000€ on New York at 2,20!

If Chicago wins, your net profit is 200€!
If New York wins, then your net profit is 0€. You're breakeven.

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Summer, Sun, Beach!
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2013, 09:22:58 PM »

Let's turn around our mind here for a second, if as some arbusers say we leave a fortune on the table by covering arbs at sharpbooks, and we all are victims of being limited at softbooks faster and faster, then....

Let me present to you the solution to all our problems and pains, the multi-million-euro-idea. (yeahhh take it as a joke).

1.) Arb is found between soft book and sharp book.
2.) Bet only the sharp book side, but with the outcome odds of the softbook.
3.) No more limits, as value betting provides you at least with 3-4 fold the profit of normal arbing, we can easily accept the slightly worse odds of the sharp book.

In other words, we found the bet we want at the soft book with odds 1.65 on Over 2.5 goals, typically we would place the bet there and not cover it at sharp book, but not this time, we rather bet on odds 1.50 on Over 2.5 at Pinnacle, although it is 10% worse odds, it should not matter too much, as you trade the 10% worse odds against being never limited again.

Are you with me? Does it make sense? You want to donate me some Euros? :-)
« Last Edit: September 15, 2013, 09:24:58 PM by Arbitrator » Logged

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danny
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danny

Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2013, 08:20:17 AM »

Are you with me? Does it make sense?
It doesn't unless (using your numbers) the expected value of the bet at the soft book is 6% or greater.
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Arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2013, 01:35:01 PM »

Let's turn around our mind here for a second, if as some arbusers say we leave a fortune on the table by covering arbs at sharpbooks,

You dont leave a fortune when following the money management system that i suggested.
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Arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2013, 01:36:27 PM »

and we all are victims of being limited at softbooks faster and faster, then....

You will be limited at the end, but this time might not come that fast, as you dont take the max stake, and you are heading for a ''to win'' amount. Read carefully my posts.
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Arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2013, 01:37:31 PM »

2.) Bet only the sharp book side, but with the outcome odds of the softbook.

You just lost the edge that you had. Maths will be against you from now on.
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Arbusers
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Re: Value betting guide.
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2013, 01:39:02 PM »

Are you with me? Does it make sense? You want to donate me some Euros? :-)

It doesnt make sence. No donations so far.
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