Help on Back - Lay

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Help on Back - Lay
« on: February 01, 2015, 08:11:01 PM »

A friend of mine who is affiliate with bookmaker X , takes a 30% commision from what I lose ( I am the one registered at him) having the No-Negative Carry Over Policy, we think like this :
With a stake of 2000 euroes , at a odd of 2 ( back - lay ) I put 1000euro on 2odd ( match favorite) on bookmaker X , and aproximately 1000Euro lay on odd 2 on exchanger Y. BUT !! I have problems on changing the "terms" of this arbitrage , in the next way.

If my BACK bet is winner , we will have profit 300 euro
If my LAY bet is winner , we will have a 300 euro lose , which we will cover the next month with the affiliate commision (1000Euro lost on bookmaker X)

My question is for those experimented in trading , if they want to help me :
How do I apply this method on odds of 1.30  , because I have a problem on calculating :

Back 1000 euro on odd 1.30 - bookmaker X
Lay = ?? What stake I must have on a LAY-ODD , in the same scenario I presented with odd 2 ?
I need an formula that will make use of that 30%-loss-return comission that is integrated in the arb itself.

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Re: Help on Back - Lay
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2015, 08:31:12 PM »

Maths are simple here. First of all make your life easier by backing (and not laying) the opposite event.
For example if the odds in 12 are 1.30/4 and the affiliate profit in the favorite is 30% you should act like this:
4x250=1000 (+300)=1300
In this even you are risking 1250 to win 1300 securing a 50 profit.
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