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Statistical Question

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ilovethisforum
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« on: August 03, 2016, 09:07:04 AM »

Hi mates,

i would like to hear your thoughts about a statistical problem that i have encounter these days.My question is this:

We have a football match that the historical data said that there is 70% probability of scoring one goal on the 2nd half of the match.Will this probability change during the 2nd half as the time passes and no goals are scored? Because the historical data said that the match has 70% probability of scoring one goal on the 2nd half,it doesn't said if the goal will be scored on 47' or on 90+5'.Do you believe that as the time passes and no goals scored affects this probability or the 70% prob remains the same until the end of the match?
Thanks for your answers!
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 12:33:01 PM by ilovethisforum » Logged

barbero
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2016, 04:52:37 PM »

hi, it does affect. as time goes by a goal is less likely to be scored

if you want to know the odds that historical data is telling for a match after minute 60, just see the % of matches where a goal was scored after minute 60'. or % of matches with no goal [45', 60'] where a goal was scored after minute 60'. or the same, but on a specific league, or on a specific 1X2 odds relationship range of favourite-dog. depends on what you consider representative of the match you want to analyze

but I guess you know all this, actually it's not quite what you were asking. so the answer is yes, probability varies as time goes by
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2016, 07:28:05 PM »

Hi mates,

i would like to hear your thoughts about a statistical problem that i have encounter these days.My question is this:

We have a football match that the historical data said that there is 70% probability of scoring one goal on the 2nd half of the match.Will this probability change during the 2nd half as the time passes and no goals are scored? Because the historical data said that the match has 70% probability of scoring one goal on the 2nd half,it doesn't said if the goal will be scored on 47' or on 90+5'.Do you believe that as the time passes and no goals scored affects this probability or the 70% prob remains the same until the end of the match?
Thanks for your answers!

Just look at an play graph at Betfair and you will see as the time ticks down the price goes up therefore so does the probability
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ilovethisforum
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2016, 08:17:31 PM »

Thank you very much both for your answers!
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 08:54:03 PM by ilovethisforum » Logged

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