I need help understanding value betting (page 5)

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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #60 on: June 26, 2017, 01:17:03 PM »

I was monitoring matches were the edge had gone, i.e dropped.
Dont worry I didn't place any bets

->  https://pste.eu/p/Vbi3.html
Would have had a loss of 10% loss in bankroll, thats why always important to have an edge!

Next, I'm working on a paper trail of 1000 bets using 30% kelly that have an edge to see what will happen to make bank account.
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Alfa1234
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #61 on: June 26, 2017, 01:31:06 PM »

You still don't get it...if your odd was 2.05 in the soft it does not mean the probability is 51%.  The soft odd has nothing to do with probability.

Reread the thread again.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #62 on: June 26, 2017, 02:07:35 PM »

Yes I know that, the probability is determined by the odds at pinnacle lean.

I only added the probability data, so that I could use a bankroll, that used Kelly.
I just wanted to collect some data to see what would happen if I had some edge bets, but the edge dropped.
Thats all for the moment.

It looks like, not having EDGE was very unlucky and costly over the long run.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #63 on: June 26, 2017, 02:12:31 PM »

I didnt have the pinnacle lean at the time, because I'm using some software atm and I didnt cross reference pinnacle.
But the automated software informed me that the EDGE had gone.

Thats all.
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Alfa1234
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #64 on: June 26, 2017, 04:00:57 PM »

You still don't get it...but let me give you a hint: Pinnacle lean has nothing to do with it.  It's the closing odds.

You can use oddsportal to check the closing odds for those games.

Also: a lot of the odds in your list were NEVER above Pinnacle so I have no clue what you are doing...if that software told you those were valuebets at the time you should throw it out with the garbage right now.

Oh, and if you bet on Gamba Osaka VS Kawasaki and had a draw no bet...you should have gotten a void because it was a draw (1-1), not a loss.  You had the sandvikens vs Nykopins and that game result reversed.

Last post for me in this thread, it's pointless.  :)
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #65 on: June 26, 2017, 04:29:57 PM »

Also: a lot of the odds in your list were NEVER above Pinnacle so I have no clue what you are doing...if that software told you those were valuebets at the time you should throw it out with the garbage right now.


Yep like mentioned above  the EDGE dropped, these were not Value Bets, they were at some point but the Edge dropped.
I just wanted to demonstrate that.

Don't worry, I fully understand this concept
#################################################
(value bet  = Pinnacle Closing Odd < Soft Odd Chosen)
or
(value bet = SBO Odd/Betfair < Soft Odd Chosen)

If Pinnacle Closing Odd > Greater than soft, then there is no value.

#################################################

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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #66 on: June 26, 2017, 04:33:05 PM »

No the software is not garbage, I've gone through most of the bets and at least 75% are getting the EDGE correct most of the time.
But the developer did mention to me that there is a technical glitch at the moment.

So good work on noticing that.

« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 04:36:44 PM by showMeDaMoney » Logged
showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #67 on: June 30, 2017, 07:00:51 PM »

My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 05:31:14 PM by showMeDaMoney » Logged
MUCHBET
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #68 on: July 02, 2017, 06:39:52 AM »

keep us updated and tell us after 1000 bets - that also is far too little imho but gives a first idea ;-)
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #69 on: July 02, 2017, 11:37:46 AM »

- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)

What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

Good job :)
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #70 on: July 02, 2017, 11:38:52 AM »

- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)

What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

How much did you beat the Pinnacle closing lines?

Good job :)
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mikey
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #71 on: September 17, 2017, 10:14:38 PM »

My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.

Thanks for sharing
How big is your bankroll for that 1 week test period?
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ppintaluba
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #72 on: September 17, 2017, 10:31:40 PM »

100 bets each one being 1% of bankroll, so he bet all bankroll.
If 6% roi is 560, then bankroll should be 560 * 100 / 6 (almost 10.000).

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