Pinnacle true probability

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Pinnacle true probability
« on: June 26, 2017, 11:08:29 PM »

Hi, I have read on this forum that Pinnacle was reflecting the true probability of an event happening especially when you take a look at the game odds one hour before.

I understand that they use the weight of money to help them with their odds but i don't understand why is it more accurate than if they didn't.

It is still what people thinks so it is normally subjective. Also, someone can make a bet of 3000$ while another user will ake one of 50$.

I also read that Pinnacle themselves called what they are doing the fair probability and not the true one, I think they are right.

I personnaly don't bet on other sites than Pinnacle, cause i'm using a non-typical Tipster(more like an algorithm) that I trust.

That's why I'm asking this.

Thank you for your answers.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2017, 05:38:42 AM »

I'm only a novice with Value Betting and perhaps this could be answered better by a Senior.

But I think you have a valid point, especially if you have a huge swarm of arbers putting money on both sides. Pinnacle will only see it from one side and could potentially drop  a teams odd based on the money that has been thrown. That doesn't reflect the true probability.

Or there has been a big media story and people are backing a team on that basis.
Thats why its recommended to play major leagues, because if there isn't enough money in the pool, the market odd can easily be shifted by bets.

If you wanted to be sure, you could combine pinnacle with an Asian.
Asian websites usually have swarms of people that are dedicated to finding the correct odd.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2017, 09:13:32 AM »

I understand that they use the weight of money to help them with their odds but i don't understand why is it more accurate than if they didn't.

It is still what people thinks so it is normally subjective. Also, someone can make a bet of 3000$ while another user will ake one of 50$.


Voila:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/market-movement-in-betting#height

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/why-pinnacle-doesnt-close-or-limit-accounts#height

The point is, they use the thoughts and calculations of hundreds of sharp players (by accepting their bets), not just a few that set the opening  line.  This makes their odd the most accurate possible, because it has a huge amount of "opinions" built into it by using the bets of those people.  If 1 guy makes a 3k bet that means the opposing odd will go up...if that opposing odd has value people will take advantage of it and in the end it creates an equilibrum.  Same goes for every stock market exchange in the world...if something is over or underpriced according to people and traders, it'll be bought or sold until the correct market price is reached.  That is the basis of capitalism and price setting everywhere...

Do you honestly think if a bunch of people are betting the favourite or a bunch of arbers bet 1 side and the other side is overpriced after that, sharp players won't be betting that value odd? 
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2017, 12:42:54 PM »

I think Pinnacle are unique in the entire bookmaking industry in the way they dont limit players and take huge bets at the same time.

No other company have the expertise, resources or any idea to ever become like them and I dont see that changing any time soon.

They wouldnt have existed this long, and not barred or limited clients if what they do doesnt make them money.  And they are simply reacting to where the money is going.

On a big game the closing line on Pinnacle I would say (And Betfair) shows the actual mathematical chance (taking into account commission/juice) of a player/team winning the game.

Its amazing Pinnacle exist, whoever started it is a genius, and as an arber just thank god they were founded!
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2017, 12:45:59 PM »

As an example of a company trying to copy Pinnacle, Blacktype announced with much fanfare that they would lay any customer to lose £500 on any major sporting event.

Well that lasted under 6 months before the max bet went down to pennies like every other soft book, probably losing a sizeable sum in the process.

Even so called "sharp" books copy pinnacle and dont put up lines until Pinnacle have, and will limit anyone who wins big. 



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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2017, 06:12:50 PM »

Thanks for the responses.

I have read some of the PInnacle articles and I find it convincing.

What i was doing on my own is using Betegy : https://betegy.com/predictions

I was using their probability to bet on all valuebets they got, but i'm not sure yet of the reliability of this strategy, especially after reading those Pinnacle articles.

I also wanted to know if there is an effective way to predict dropping odds, or if the best strategy is to bet on odds higher than Pinnacle odds after the market is closed, on whatever other bookie.

I think i will prefer Dropping Odds but i don't know if there is a reliable tool that i can use for that.

Thanks.
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2017, 04:49:05 AM »

You have to be careful of these betting tips.
Especially from betegy because they are putting those value bets 3 days before the match.

Before they promote a tip, i.e they make the bet first at the highest odds($3.20),  with not much attention.
Then maybe 1k subscribers will place a bet, which will then bring the odds down.
Maybe the odd is now $2.80

Then the odds will drop at betfair, and they can counter with a LAY.
Meaning they are guarantee to make money.

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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2017, 03:45:57 PM »

Sometimes a soft can offer enticing odds, but that bet will actually lose most of the time.
I know you have got these coin toss flip theories, where you flip a coin 100 times.
My personal feeling is that is a bad analogy.

50% it will land either way and you'll make money from the edge.
But bookmakers have already performed analysis on that coin toss and factored in (the person tossing it, the angle and the coin itself)

Bookmakers have ex-value bets meaning they offer value, but realistically an amazing event has to happen for the value to win such as:

Ex Champion and current no2 Tennis player losing to someone thats never beaten a top 10 player.
Baseball team to win after getting thumped by the same(who is top) just last week  12-4.
A Tennis player who loves the grass and is in form, playing against a young gun with little experience

And if you are beating the pinnacle lean or asian, then you may think its a good value bet.
Technically it may be, but the bookmaker has run its own probability algorithm and the odds are in their favour.
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2017, 04:38:18 PM »

Sometimes a soft can offer enticing odds, but that bet will actually lose most of the time.
I know you have got these coin toss flip theories, where you flip a coin 100 times.
My personal feeling is that is a bad analogy.

50% it will land either way and you'll make money from the edge.
But bookmakers have already performed analysis on that coin toss and factored in (the person tossing it, the angle and the coin itself)

Bookmakers have ex-value bets meaning they offer value, but realistically an amazing event has to happen for the value to win such as:

Ex Champion and current no2 Tennis player losing to someone thats never beaten a top 10 player.
Baseball team to win after getting thumped by the same(who is top) just last week  12-4.
A Tennis player who loves the grass and is in form, playing against a young gun with little experience

And if you are beating the pinnacle lean or asian, then you may think its a good value bet.
Technically it may be, but the bookmaker has run its own probability algorithm and the odds are in their favour.

Some people may think posts like these, because of the manner you post them, are based on facts rather than your personal observation.  Do you have any data supporting this theory or is it merely speculation and personal observation of a few random events?  Because if this is an actual verified fact you observed thousands of times and you have actual data, you have just managed to tear down the foundation upon which a large part of the betting industry is built upon.
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2017, 08:18:51 PM »

Yeah but I don't think 1k subscribers is enough to make an odd drop, they are not all using the same bookmaker and it's not everybody that is betting large amounts of money. Even with 10k subscribers i would have a doubt.

Sometimes the odds that they bet on have maybe increased.

Also, when they predict 80% chance of Under 2.5 goals on any game, and the odds show 54% chance, i'm not thinking that there is a real 26% of difference, even if I should.

But i think i can trust this prediction to at least have an expected positive value, no?

And it would seem difficult for Pinnacle to never give value cause our bets have an impact on their odds, but no one can be sure without having acces to their own algorithm and some other stuffs.




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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2017, 12:20:39 PM »

Yeah but I don't think 1k subscribers is enough to make an odd drop, they are not all using the same bookmaker and it's not everybody that is betting large amounts of money. Even with 10k subscribers i would have a doubt.

Sometimes the odds that they bet on have maybe increased.

Also, when they predict 80% chance of Under 2.5 goals on any game, and the odds show 54% chance, i'm not thinking that there is a real 26% of difference, even if I should.

But i think i can trust this prediction to at least have an expected positive value, no?

A quick look on the site didn't give me much info. I can't even see which bookmakers they are using. But you can quite easily see, if they have an edge on the market, if they on average beat the closing lines on Pinnacle.

Their results for the past 2 years is 16825 picks with a negative roi on 3.49%. (If I am reading it correctly...).
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2017, 06:47:15 PM »

Sometimes a soft can offer enticing odds, but that bet will actually lose most of the time.
I know you have got these coin toss flip theories, where you flip a coin 100 times.
My personal feeling is that is a bad analogy.

50% it will land either way and you'll make money from the edge.
But bookmakers have already performed analysis on that coin toss and factored in (the person tossing it, the angle and the coin itself)

Bookmakers have ex-value bets meaning they offer value, but realistically an amazing event has to happen for the value to win such as:

Ex Champion and current no2 Tennis player losing to someone thats never beaten a top 10 player.
Baseball team to win after getting thumped by the same(who is top) just last week  12-4.
A Tennis player who loves the grass and is in form, playing against a young gun with little experience

And if you are beating the pinnacle lean or asian, then you may think its a good value bet.
Technically it may be, but the bookmaker has run its own probability algorithm and the odds are in their favour.

Some people may think posts like these, because of the manner you post them, are based on facts rather than your personal observation.  Do you have any data supporting this theory or is it merely speculation and personal observation of a few random events?  Because if this is an actual verified fact you observed thousands of times and you have actual data, you have just managed to tear down the foundation upon which a large part of the betting industry is built upon.

You are right, I made some mistakes in my calculations and the value bets with edge will give profit in the long term. (but it requires exact implementing the plan 100% and not deviating one bit.
I jumped to a conclusion.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Pinnacle true probability
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2017, 11:23:07 AM »

Sometimes a soft can offer enticing odds, but that bet will actually lose most of the time.
I know you have got these coin toss flip theories, where you flip a coin 100 times.
My personal feeling is that is a bad analogy.

50% it will land either way and you'll make money from the edge.
But bookmakers have already performed analysis on that coin toss and factored in (the person tossing it, the angle and the coin itself)

Bookmakers have ex-value bets meaning they offer value, but realistically an amazing event has to happen for the value to win such as:

Ex Champion and current no2 Tennis player losing to someone thats never beaten a top 10 player.
Baseball team to win after getting thumped by the same(who is top) just last week  12-4.
A Tennis player who loves the grass and is in form, playing against a young gun with little experience

And if you are beating the pinnacle lean or asian, then you may think its a good value bet.
Technically it may be, but the bookmaker has run its own probability algorithm and the odds are in their favour.

Some people may think posts like these, because of the manner you post them, are based on facts rather than your personal observation.  Do you have any data supporting this theory or is it merely speculation and personal observation of a few random events?  Because if this is an actual verified fact you observed thousands of times and you have actual data, you have just managed to tear down the foundation upon which a large part of the betting industry is built upon.

You are right, I made some mistakes in my calculations and the value bets with edge will give profit in the long term. (but it requires exact implementing the plan 100% and not deviating one bit.
I jumped to a conclusion.

From my betting history so far,  you will land on top financially, but the value here is the the underdog.  An amazing event has to happen. Which is a player that is usually playing low level ITF tennis to beat one of the rising stars who is playing top class players.

Event = Wimbledon 1st Round
Kasatkina, Darya vs Zheng, Saisai
Zheng has value at $2.7+

But if you look at her record,
Her last WTA was in March where she made it to the 2nd round after qualifiers.
Then before that, she was playing ITF, making it to the finals and in some situations not even making it past 2nd round in ITF

Kasatkina
Made the 3rd in a recent WTA losing to top 5 player
She won Charleston WTA event.
Then had some early losses but these were mostly WTA against high calibre opponents.

Kasatkina will probably win, its not 100%, she make not like here style of play, or she has a bad day.  0.64% probability that she will win(lean). But in order for value to win here, an amazing event has to happen.

Yes I understand, out of a 1000 times at odds of $2.7+ financially it will swing in your favour.
Thats a big IF, perhaps not all value bets are made equal.
So far through my calculations $2.7 to $7 has ended up with a loss in profit

L   -100   2.7
L   -100   3
W   142   3
L   -11   2.75
L   -38   3.1
L   -35   3.5
L   -32   3
W   198   3.6
L   -100   2.75
L   -58   2.75
L   -13   7
L   -11   3.6
L   -100   2.75
W   96   3.1
L   -34   3.75
L   -100   2.9
L   -38   2.75
W   104   3
W   86   2.75

So theoretically you need 1000 bets of this odds to see the real picture, but you can understand where I got my feeling.
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