Value betting the NBA this season

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turbobets
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turbobets

Value betting the NBA this season
« on: November 20, 2017, 02:12:32 AM »

I am getting killed value betting the NBA so far this year, anybody else?
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antemartic
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2017, 11:07:19 AM »

great season for me
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Alfa1234
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2017, 12:06:07 PM »

NBA started barely month ago...so your sample can't be much bigger than 100 to 200 bets...simply unlucky.  Stick with it and it should turn around soon.  :)
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junoreactor
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2017, 12:14:41 PM »

I am getting killed value betting the NBA so far this year, anybody else?
Hi turbobets,
Which service are you using, if I may ask?
Thanks.
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naza
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2017, 02:28:45 PM »

good season for me so far.
Like the previous post said, sample is too small to draw any conclusions.
Simple variance here
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MisterRodriguez
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2017, 04:13:06 PM »

The question really makes you wonder if this guy understands really what he is doing in ValueBetting

The premiss is betting an off market number in an inefficient bookies by using a sharp bookie in a efficient/high liquidity market

Question NBA is questioning ValueBetting in itself.Just Google Search Expected Value,Law Of Large Numbers and do a binomial distribution of your laughable example
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straili
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straili

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2017, 04:36:55 PM »

I am getting killed value betting the NBA so far this year, anybody else?

Filtering is the A and Z in value betting for a number of reasons.
Firstly, if you place all value bets the alert service is showing you then you will spend all day in front of the pc. Is this viable? No. If you use a bot forget about this remark.
Secondly, some markets are proved to be far more profitable than others in value betting. For example, you use a 3% filter in bookmaker X against Pinnacle and a 1% filter in bookmakers Y against Pinnacle, but bookmaker Y produces a bigger profit that bookmaker X even if the placed bets are 50% less. It might sound crazy but it is true.
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turbobets
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2017, 02:03:41 AM »

I find bets manually using donbest real time to compare odds at pinnacle versus my other sportsbooks. All my bets beat pinnacles' juice removed true odds and are made no sooner than 15 minutes before the start of each game. Yes, very small sample size so far but I was curious how the NBA was trending for other bettors. I am do very well in the other major sports with exception of soccer, again small sample size. I do not have access to most european/asian sportsbooks so it is rare for me to find soccer odds that I am able to bet. Thanks all for your replies.
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straili
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straili

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2017, 07:59:39 AM »

You should review your time filtering as I really dont see any advantage with the 15 min prior to the game time frame. A very general observation for November is that it is slower and not that productive compared to October. All my bots and all my projects indicate the same. My guess is that it is a very productive period for all bookmakers. I cant explain it, but money flow goes from softs to sharps. Maybe this is one of the periods described by the boss here. The other should be at the end of February beginning of March.
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junoreactor
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junoreactor

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2017, 02:51:35 AM »

Good news that you are losing now, may allow you to bet more in the future.
You will win eventually, don't worry. It is just that the sample needs to be quite big so that luck does not come into play anymore.
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turbobets
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2017, 04:22:04 AM »

You should review your time filtering as I really dont see any advantage with the 15 min prior to the game time frame.

Thanks for the advice straili, something for me to consider. I am assuming that the closing odds are the most accurate so it is better to shop for value right before the start of each match. I have been burned a few times betting tennis with a delayed start time and a big line move against me before the start of the match.
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turbobets
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turbobets

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2017, 04:23:04 AM »

Good news that you are losing now, may allow you to bet more in the future.
You will win eventually, don't worry. It is just that the sample needs to be quite big so that luck does not come into play anymore.

Thanks for the pep talk juno.
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straili
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straili

Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2017, 12:58:30 PM »

I am assuming that the closing odds are the most accurate so it is better to shop for value right before the start of each match. I have been burned a few times betting tennis with a delayed start time and a big line move against me before the start of the match.

Your assumption is wrong and I will explain why shortly. The majority of players are also doing the same wrong assumption. I really dont have the courage to confront all these people who believe in myths but here is what I consider as rational thinking.
Most people correctly believe that Pinnacle and Betfair's odds are close to market's reality. When odds are getting tighter lies are gone. But the good question is, when do the odds get tighter?
It depends on the market. For betfair, when you see a line with no margin (i.e 1.44/1.45 - 3.35/3.40) then this is the moment of truth. For Pinnacle it is exactly the same. Suppose that the closing line of pinnacle is 1.98. Indeed, if you get 2.03 you are beating the closing line and this bet has value. But what if you get 2.1 4 hours before the event, or 5 days before the event when lines are freshly published. Can you argue that 2.10 has more value than 2.03 and 1.98? That is why I am telling to you and everyone else, dont pay attention to the closing line, but always try to get the biggest odds, no matter if they occur 1 minute or 5 days before kick off. If you manage to be accurate at 85-90% of your shots, you have the luxury to fail to 15-20% while still keeping more value that closing odds.
Food for thought.
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MisterRodriguez
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2017, 04:45:39 PM »


Suppose that the closing line of pinnacle is 1.98. Indeed, if you get 2.03 you are beating the closing line and this bet has value. But what if you get 2.1 4 hours before the event, or 5 days before the event when lines are freshly published. Can you argue that 2.10 has more value than 2.03 and 1.98? That is why I am telling to you and everyone else, dont pay attention to the closing line,


This is the dumbest post i ve ever seen in a betting forum
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Alfa1234
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Re: Value betting the NBA this season
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2017, 04:54:32 PM »

Off course you have to pay attention to the closing line.  How else would you be able to determine the value?

The point of waiting to place a value bet untill a few minutes before the game starts, is to avoid betting on a non-value line because the earlier you place a bet, the higher the risk of your odd going against you and no longer having value...I think this is very obvious.

The only discussion is, what the odds are of a line moving against you or moving in your favour if you place the bet a long time before the game starts.  I'd argue the odds are probably 50/50...as there is no way to predic the line movement.  My personal experience is, once there's a big line movement, the line more often than not continues a bit longer in the direction of the move, giving you bigger value than you initially thought.  I have no evidence or stats of this though.
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