Different value stake

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value king
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value king

Different value stake
« on: February 09, 2018, 10:42:20 PM »

What do you think about to play every Value bet with the max amount the soft bookies accept because sometimes you have at a lot of bookies a value odd and sometimes only at one bookie but I think on long therm it would pay off on the other side you will have a big variance

until now I played over 1000 value bets but only with flat stake
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2018, 12:27:38 PM »

You should only bet the amounts you are comfortable with. Bankroll management is quite important.
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Chipmunk
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2018, 02:32:13 PM »

There can be hidden dangers here: matches with higher limits may be so because the bookie has a more solid line, or because they are deliberately betting against the market.

Worth getting a feel for how a bookie develops its markets over time. They do vary.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2018, 02:46:53 PM »

There can be hidden dangers here: matches with higher limits may be so because the bookie has a more solid line, or because they are deliberately betting against the market.

Worth getting a feel for how a bookie develops its markets over time. They do vary.

I don't think a bookmaker is ever interested in getting a bet in that holds +ev for the customer. I simply can't see the reason.

Maybe local bookmakers offering good odds or bonuses on qualification to world cup for the local team. If the team qualifies - lose a few before world cup/make a lot at the world cup.
If the team doesn't qualify - make a bit profits before the world cup due to the most likely unbalanced book because of the incorrect odds.

But we have to be in situations like these, and I am not even sure they consider this at all.

Besides you should only believe the Pinnacle lines to be accurate. If Bet365 is offering you odds 2.50 with high limits and Pinnacle is only at 2.00, I would still believe the Pinnacle lines to be true ;)

Also how would you ever know how a bookmaker acts in a certain situation?
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value king
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2018, 11:24:58 PM »

I started this month to play ever single value with different stakes between 100 - 1200 euros a total off I played 62 bets and won only 20 of them I play only odds between 1.75 - 3.00 I think its bad luck that most of the bets that I lost are they with higher stake

in my opinion it dosent matter how much u play if your bankroll is big enough because if I beat the NoVig line from pinnacle for example with 5 percent on every bet I will get that percent on a 100 euro bet the same as on a 1000 euro bet.

what do you think about that or does anyone tried this before ?
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arbusers
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2018, 09:42:08 AM »

These last 30 days are awful for value betting. 100 bets is not a big sample.
As for stacking, I would use the “to win” amount no matter what the bet or the bookmaker is. In the end, value will be determined by the difference in prices between SBOBET, pinnacle, betfair and a couple more. Unless you are using tactics less based on mathematics.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2018, 03:19:13 PM »

I started this month to play ever single value with different stakes between 100 - 1200 euros a total off I played 62 bets and won only 20 of them I play only odds between 1.75 - 3.00 I think its bad luck that most of the bets that I lost are they with higher stake

in my opinion it dosent matter how much u play if your bankroll is big enough because if I beat the NoVig line from pinnacle for example with 5 percent on every bet I will get that percent on a 100 euro bet the same as on a 1000 euro bet.

what do you think about that or does anyone tried this before ?


Obviously :)

The more +ev a bet is, the bigger it should be.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Different value stake
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2018, 09:05:10 AM »

What do you think about to play every Value bet with the max amount the soft bookies accept because sometimes you have at a lot of bookies a value odd and sometimes only at one bookie but I think on long therm it would pay off on the other side you will have a big variance

You might have a staking strategy which dictates how much you should bet depending on how good the margin is (EV+), the odds and the size of your bankroll. So understood correctly, you are not able to bet this amount in all cases, due to market liquidity or bookmaker limits, so you will bet whatever stake (nearest round number preferably) you can. Sure, if you are convinced that you have a value bet, although it doesn't meet your stake requirements, you can still take it (if it is worth your time) and you should profit from it in the long run. I have done tens of thousands of bets this way, in many cases using only one tenth of my prefrered stake, definitely with profit.

For comparison purposes on your performance, you could decide not to consider each bet as 1 bet. You could call it a quarter bet or a 1/10 of a bet. So via this perspective, maybe your 62 bets is really only 30-40 bets, the sum of 30-40 standard stakes. Alternatively, you can just assume that all bets could have been placed at preferred stake, model this, and see how well your decision making could have been with ideal limitless betting accounts.

Maybe you are getting more limits on smaller markets with higher EV value bets and less limits on the big markets that are more dificult to beat - so this can of course be taken into account and explain a higher losing rate on non-limited bets when taking your entire betting history into account.
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