The Arbusers Value Betting Index (page 5)

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dealer wins
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #60 on: September 27, 2018, 10:34:31 PM »

Arbusers sounds much nicer than valbusers anyway :)
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #61 on: October 02, 2018, 08:36:31 AM »

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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #62 on: October 02, 2018, 08:56:42 AM »

This is the final performance for September
For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 4 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 20% gravity in our index.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf now contributes with 60% gravity because it generated bigger volumes compared to last month.
b. 2 value bettors operating manually on line. These players participates with a total 10% gravity in our index, because of their experience and the big variety of bookmakers that they use.
c. 2 value bettors operating manually off line in 2 different countries. These players participate with a total 10% gravity in our index.

Commenting:
That was the first negative month we had for 2018.
During September we noticed absolutely no correlation among all projects.
O4S started positively but then disaster struck.
The Value betting bot was positive during all month but its performance declined during the last 5 days.
On line and off line value bettors reported different performances, 3 of them being red and one of them being green.

The bad performance of the month is largely due to O4S bad performance. We are studying the reasons why this happen and the first findings are showing most strategies working wrong and a tactical mistake from O4S management to insist in these strategies. It is estimated that an early change in strategies and reduce of stake would save us a lot of money.
We gave back almost all profits we made during August and that means that we had 2 months with no wealth built. It is disappointing but these streaks are absolutely expected and we will not allow to take our mood down or stop the action.At this point I would like to quote an older post I made a month ago:

The typical value bettor would be better off, if the outcomes of his bets had no instantaneous value at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by fluctuation in profitability.
The typical value bettor should remain steadfast until the end. Instead of fearing a losing streak, he should embrace it, because losing streaks will sooner or later be followed by winning streaks. It’s up to him to take advantage of both streaks and make them work for and not against him.
Paradoxically, you will be much more in control, when you realise how much you are not in control. By putting all of your betting action on permanent autopilot, you can fight the rush for good results, focus on your long-term goals, and stay bullet proof from mood swings.
These mood swings will separate the value bettors from the rest. In the end, how your bets and results behave are less important than how you behave. 


We are learning and we are getting educated from this project. If we want to stay in this business a long time, we have to keep learning. What we formerly knew is never enough. So if we don’t learn to constantly revise our earlier ideas, and come up with better ones, we are not competitive and the opponents will win.
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PoisonDart
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #63 on: October 04, 2018, 11:05:56 PM »

just a quick question re the index

so does that mean that a unit of currency bet at the very beginning of the year would've returned 203,38 as of the latest index?

Is that bot o4s or something else? I remember I saw something online developed by a bunch of Scandinavians for value betting that could be classed as a bot.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #64 on: October 05, 2018, 03:49:50 AM »

The index measures the performance of value betting since January the 1st 2018. The starting price of the index by that date was 100. The actual performance by the end of September was 192, while the moving average was 203.
That means that we had an initial capital of 100 and now our capital is 292.
O4S is not a bot. It is a system operating manually. Please read the relevant threads.
Only 1 bot contributes to the index. It has no name so far.
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Shawn2k
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #65 on: October 05, 2018, 08:49:22 AM »

Thanks for updating Arbusers. I agree with your summarize. I think bad periods are what we can learn and grow most from.

For a beginner or rookie I would like to say that sometimes when things are going bad, it does not mean that we are doing things wrong. Yes, we should analyze and check this, but it's the same when things are going good. We may have luck. Work hard when it's both going good and bad, I think that's important. We don't always get rewarded even if we are doing things perfectly, only in the long run  :)

Keep up the good work!  8)
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Wolfie
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #66 on: October 06, 2018, 09:58:28 AM »

What about manually operating players online and offline. Did they have a negative month ?
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #67 on: October 06, 2018, 12:33:48 PM »

Already answered.

On line and off line value bettors reported different performances, 3 of them being red and one of them being green.
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Wolfie
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #68 on: October 06, 2018, 12:39:56 PM »

Yes i read that. Maybe i didnt formulate good my question. Which one was green online or offline? Online was a green september for me thats why im asking.
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miloshr5
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #69 on: October 27, 2018, 11:11:10 AM »

Hi everybody! First of all I want to thank everybody that are putting effort in this topic, your dedication and research are really helping everybody in the betting comunity. The idea for the index is super smart, hope you will continue doing it till it comes close to perfect as it can be. I myself realized that I can be called a value bettor after I ran up to this website, never knew the terminology of the thing that I am doing. I bet for the past 2 years with good results, I realized there is a great value on a specific market, and exploiting it since that with great success. The thing is ,being a specific market it is quite small, so good results but I play a small number of bets per month because of it. So I am now exploring new places where a value bet could be made. I read through the forum as much as I could for last couple of days and found this sentence from one of the members  " Pinny is just an example of effective market theory which equals true odds minus juice. There has been numerous past analyses for pinnacle odds vs real probabilities and difference was about 2% in big data. Which states that pinny odds are very sharp" -this caught my attention. I understand that TRUE ODDS could not be determined,but if the quoted sentence is truth or pretty close,does that mean that if I find an odd that is giving 10-20% better payout with the same stake and market comparing to pinny- does that mean that odd is for sure a value bet? Sometimes I come across 50-70% better payout vs BET365 odds... example: I lay a bet of 100 on bet365 and get back 50 profit, on the other betting site I get 75 profit (50% better). Does that much better payout always signals a valuebet? Thank you for your time, and keep up with the good work!
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #70 on: October 28, 2018, 07:49:35 PM »

The idea for the index is super smart, hope you will continue doing it till it comes close to perfect as it can be.

Thank you for the good words. Starting from January 2019 we will segment further the index and we will present new indexes focusing in one and only project for each of them.
We are also doing our best so we bring several bots and projects to the disposal of a bigger audience so more people benefit from them.

Pinny is just an example of effective market theory which equals true odds minus juice.

You should be extremely careful with value traps here. I m convinced that Pinnacle is not only profiting from the margin, but it also takes position against players.
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arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #71 on: November 03, 2018, 09:49:26 AM »

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This is the final performance for October 2018.
For this compilation, we received data from:
a. 1 value betting bot operating with 6 high-street bookmakers. This bot participates with a 25% gravity in our index.
b. Odds4Stats value betting system operating manually on our behalf contributing with 60% gravity because it generates bigger volumes compared to other participating projects.
b. 1 value bettors operating manually on line. This players participates with a total 7.5% gravity in our index, because of his experience and the big variety of bookmakers that he is using.
c. 1 value bettors operating manually off line. This player participate with a total 7.5% gravity in our index.
Unfortunately we didn’t receive reports from a couple more players during October, that is why we had to reduce gravity.

Commenting:
That was the second negative month we had for 2018 after September.
The Value betting bot was stable and positive during all month. We need to stress here that 1 well-known bookmaker locked our account and put it ‘’under investigation’’. It remains to be seen what this investigation comes up with and the overall reaction of the bookmaker toward this kind of action.
Once again, the bad performance of the month is largely due to O4S bad performance. We gave back all profits that we made since mid July and that means that we now have 3.5 months with no wealth built. Also, July was the month when we decided to increase our stakes. Notice that we also pay some fees for the O4S service and these make the over all picture to look bad.
We are studying the reasons of this downside. As mentioned in the previous monthly report, we are paying more attention to the strategies that we use and try to modify them when bad signs appear. In addition, we spot 2 more reasons for the bad performance. The first is that one well known soft bookmaker is now very careful with the opening lines creating less opportunities for profit. The second is that more and more services, players and actors are jumping in the Value Betting scene creating a very competitive environment for O4S to maintain profitability at the desired levels. The old timers would recall a similar case a decade back when more and more players were jumping to arbitrage. Those of us who study Value Betting and understand the fundamentals behind it know that losing streaks could come and go like the tide. They are absolutely expected. They are also absolutely expected to be replaced by winning streaks. Already, after October the 28th we receive positive signs from O4S once again and hope that the winning streak is confirmed in the coming days/weeks.
You might notice in our graph, that the actual performance and the moving average are now coming very close to each other. This reminds of the Bollinger bands used in the stock markets. When they come closer for a long period of time, a sudden move is expected upwards or downwards.
Predicting or anticipating the length of these streaks is a hard task. It seems this is one of the keys to success with Value Betting.
We are learning and we are getting educated from this project. If we want to stay in this business a long time, we have to keep learning. What we formerly knew is never enough. So if we don’t learn to constantly revise our earlier ideas, and come up with better ones, we are not competitive and the opponents will win.
This post is getting long already. We have some more findings that we will soon post again.
Thank you.

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mikler
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #72 on: November 06, 2018, 05:42:29 PM »

At the begining of this year, guys using bots were locusts. The lowest form of arbers out there.
Now they are acceptable and everyone are invited to use bots.
Can we know what has changed?
We know what happened at the begining of this year, so it seems now everyone who hasn't experience that are welcomed  to experience it probably in few weeks or months as we know this will happen again. But it wasn't nice experience.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2018, 05:48:10 PM by mikler » Logged
arbusers
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #73 on: November 06, 2018, 06:48:05 PM »

You are distorting reality and unfair with the forum.

We were the first and only to alarm and warn our members for the dangers. Those who listened, saved a lot of capital. It couldn't be more clear than that:

We are informed that lavish contracts have been awarded to software providers in order to tackle the use of bots. We expect to see their results in the coming months. As a last line of defence bookmakers could limit and neutralise accounts not allowing them to continue betting. On the other hand it seems that a growing number of players are depended on the use of bots that now became their only source of profits. We urge these players to search for alternative ways of smart gambling before kicked out of business when previous mentioned contracts materialise to results.

We never said that bot users are ''the lowest form of arbers out there''. This is your opinion, not ours.

It would be good to remind again what locusts are and what they are doing to the industry. Once again, those who listened to us would save a lot of capital and that includes locusts as well:

Locusts continue destroying the industry. These are a group of players under the guidance of bigger players attacking to any possible source of profit to suck as more capital as they can in very short time. We now see locusts jumping to the bot industry, attacking very specific bookmakers that in the end will have to react violently in order to protect their interests. As many people are now depending on bots, locusts are bringing the expiration date of many bots closer. We fear that many players will stop business abruptly when a couple of bookmakers tackles bots.

You are distorting reality here:

Now they are acceptable and everyone are invited to use bots.

Read our post carefully. You will clearly see that not everyone is invited to use the bot. We are saying exactly the opposite to what you imply.
First of all you will see that we are talking about a certain capacity.

every successful Value Betting project has a certain capacity. If for example a bot operates with 5000 accounts of bookmaker X, it is logic to assume that a fierce reaction will come from this bookmaker. We have seen this in the past and we tried to warn as more members as we could in order to avoid capital loss.

Bots and bot developers that accept clients with an infinite capacity are condemning their players. This bot is not accepting everyone but a rather small number of players.

this is available only to members with significant contribution to the forum.

On the other hand, you are only right when you say that raids will happen again. That is very much correct if you place exactly the same bets together with 5.000 or 25.000 accounts. 
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Arbermac
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Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« Reply #74 on: November 09, 2018, 12:07:04 AM »

As I have no information on the bets that are being placed and the edge gained I’m not 100% but surely if you increase the edge that is needed before a bet is allowed to be placed this would dramatically decrease the chances of having months like September and October?

I only place bets with an edge of 10%+ and both months were very profitable for me. Don’t get me wrong I have spells of losing bets (think most was 13 in a row) but as long as I get enough bets on on a daily basis to beat the variance all is good.
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