D'Alembert question.

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joskin
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D'Alembert question.
« on: April 16, 2018, 09:54:30 AM »


With sequential staking plans like D'alembert, how do you work out the maths of having multiple banks?
You need multiple banks because you may have games overlapping each other and you can only work out your stake on the basis of your last result.
If for instance on level stakes you have a strike rate of 73%, longest lose sequence of 3, is there any way at all you could work out what would happen
if you made the same bets but with multiple banks?
It seems to me that you would be introducing an element of randomness, and you could end up with one of those banks losing infinitely.
Or am I missing something?
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arbusers
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Re: D'Alembert question.
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2018, 05:12:42 PM »

Good question this.
I understand that we are talking about a big number of bets per day, and not a controllable number of 5-10 bets daily. To avoid overlapping games you could follow one of these 2 tactics. Of course one could suggest more than the following 2.
1. Calculate stakes according to the time that you placed a bet without taking into account any outcome. For example, your last bet was a lose and you should bet more in your next bets. You place X bets within the day, so you keep placing the same amount of money to all bets until you find the time to calculate profit/loss of previously placed bets. Personally, I dont like this as it makes life more difficult.
2. Calculate stakes according to the results of the previous day as a whole. If your previous day was a loser, then you should place bigger bets today and vice versa. This might make your life easier and save you a lot of time. Maybe this is the way to go.

Of course, if we are talking about a small number of events per day, you could take into account each event separately.

While it is accepted that D'Alembert Staking Plan combines a cunningly cautious approach with a proper appreciation of the law of averages and so stands less chance of bankrupting players, we must keep into account that it is based on his (D'Alembert's) own understanding of the law of equilibrium which states that an individual can expect to have a higher chance of winning after a loss than at any other time. He believed that his betting strategy was a winning plan in the long term. We do not have to accept his staking plan as it is and we should modify it according to our needs and risks that we can take. For example, a nasty losing streak will kill your business. We have seen that losing streaks can go far more away than what we can imagine (or hope). 
You might want to take a close look and study the way that I use my version of the D'Alembert staking plan here:
https://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,5599.0.html
My approach is very general and it doesn't go into details to calculate each bet separately. I m dividing time to 5 days interval and then I implement D'Alembert at the end of every period, when I suspect that trend will change. Thus, when I estimate that I will have losing bets ahead, i m reducing the height of stakes. When I estimate that I will have winning bets ahead, I m raising stakes.
Of course someone could divide time is shorter periods of time, even on a day by day basis and base his/her calculations on that.
I m sorry for the long post but your question wasn't easy either.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 05:27:58 PM by Arbusers » Logged
joskin
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Re: D'Alembert question.
« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2018, 11:28:22 AM »

That's very informative, thanks.
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