I see several casinos are running this and I have been wondering if I should start playing these events. Are my calculations wrong here:
Back Bet promo casino 25, EURO , Liverpool @1,55
Lay: 1,59 with 2% commision
Net -1 USD
At betfair 0-0 is trading at 15. So I should expect to lose 15 times x 1 for a net loss of -14,97 however every time the matches end 0-0 I would Get a 25 Euro freebet and I have calculated net retention rate for the freebet to 75% or 22,47 USD
meaning after this match has been played 15 times I would be net 7,49 USD
am I way off here ? I think actually I should calculate 14*1 as 15 in odds means expected losses 14 and one win ? would make this even better deal
0-0 insurance
- Alfa1234
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 63
Post
Re: 0-0 insurance
Or lay the 0-0 at Betfair for a small profit each time, while if you lose you get the free bet.
- maletaja
- Pro
- Karma: -22
- AceJack
- Has experience
- Karma: -8
Post
Home @ 0-0 insured site
away
1-1
2-2
3-3
any other draw
+ 0-0 for stake above
SO this is much better to do on matches where two sites are offering bore-draw money back
I kinda like the option from my first post when I only have one site with bore-draw insurance.
This is also something I've been looking into:
- Keeping track of losses and the casino interpretation of my player behavior. You will get much better treatment from the casino when betting the big leagues with bad/low odds
compared to betfair/asians they just love customers like this:)
Re: 0-0 insurance
This is also something I have been doing but that is insanely complicated as one need to bet:Or lay the 0-0 at Betfair for a small profit each time, while if you lose you get the free bet.
Home @ 0-0 insured site
away
1-1
2-2
3-3
any other draw
+ 0-0 for stake above
SO this is much better to do on matches where two sites are offering bore-draw money back
I kinda like the option from my first post when I only have one site with bore-draw insurance.
Obviously this is not a huge moneymaker but a little value and I will take it + those sites will give you some bonus for being a regular punter and for sure keep your betting limit intact.maletaja wrote: 0-0 could add 5% value not much to overcame juice
This is also something I've been looking into:
- Keeping track of losses and the casino interpretation of my player behavior. You will get much better treatment from the casino when betting the big leagues with bad/low odds
compared to betfair/asians they just love customers like this:)
Last edited by AceJack on Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- AceJack
- Has experience
- Karma: -8
Post
Re: 0-0 insurance
Just a little update did this calculation for match watford - Crystal Palace , Expected value is a staggering 0,2353 USD , LOL
- AceJack
- Has experience
- Karma: -8
Post
Re: 0-0 insurance
Just a little update after 1 week + 50 USD doing this , that is enough for a new T-Shirt