Question for Arbers

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pearheed
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pearheed

Question for Arbers
« on: May 16, 2018, 12:50:31 PM »

I've been running a successful horse racing system since last year and we currently have 27 members with balances ranging from £1k (starting balance) up to £2.5k and stakes from £12.50 to £25. The system has anywhere from 3-20 selections a day and we work off an 80pt bank per month, either upping stakes or paying out if bank is over £2.5k at the end of it. This may change however but we had £25 as a max stake.

At the start we used the 3 early bookmakers and utilised their BOG. Over the months we've lost the main 3 and are now onto our next set of BOG but we're starting to struggle to get bets on and will be soon using none BOG bookies and just taking the price the night before. We're going to have to split this between multiple accounts and with 27 members this is going to become very time consuming. So I've have had an idea and would like to know your thoughts:

Instead of taking none BOG bookies and spreading stakes across multiple bookies as our stakes increase I'd like to centralise the entire fund and use the exchange, but the night before has very little liquidity and I'm going to need £1k matched per selection and this will go up as banks increase and new members are added.

My idea was at 6pm when SkyBet, bet365 and Betfair release their prices I drop my £1k into the market on all of my selections at a lower price than the bookmakers, creating an Arb.

If I did this what kind of Arb would be required in order to make it worthwhile for Arbers based on below bookie prices for example.

7/4
5/2
4/1
6/1
8/1
12/1
16/1
20/1
33/1
50/1
100/1

Would using just 3 bookies attract enough arbers and which Exchange would you recommend?

I'm hoping to use the 3 main ones early as theirs more value and if arbers have BOG they will also catch more value on the drifters, of which, there are many.
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pearheed
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pearheed

Re: Question for Arbers
« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2018, 11:15:28 AM »

Any opinions on this?
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Question for Arbers
« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2018, 03:11:07 PM »

You are basically trying go get matched by arbers at Betfair with a lower price than the bookies are offering at the time, because you know the price will drift lower anyway and you don't want to use bookies anymore because they limited you...correct?

This won't work very often because, by putting 1k into the market at an early time you are forcing the bookies to drop their prices immediately...causing them to limit the arber accounts rather fast.  On top of that, arbers rarely bet horses a day before the race just because of that very reason.

The bigger the arb you create, the faster the bookie will limit.

Also, your point about the arbers catching more value is wrong if the price drifts farther because they would have laid off the price at Betfair earlier (at your offered price).
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pearheed
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pearheed

Re: Question for Arbers
« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2018, 08:48:54 PM »

Thanks foe the reply Alfa.

Yes and no.

I don't know the price will end up lower, sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. By value I mean the arber will catch the BOG drift as long term these horses will win more. I'm losing BOG all over no and the next step is none BOG accounts and to keep them alive I'm going to have to split the bet over 4 or 5 bringing my stake with each down.

I didn't think £1k would have that much of an effect (it's actually £600 currently but will quickly rise). What about split between all 4 exchanges and dripped in? Say 6pm - 10pm, adjusting as the bookies adjust.

By 8pm the prices are fairly settled and would remain so overnight
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Question for Arbers
« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2018, 09:09:08 PM »

All we can do is speculate, but I don't think it'll work.  :)
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