Curious sofascore stats

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Curious sofascore stats  (Read 840 times)
PoisonDart
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 1
Posts: 31


View Profile

PoisonDart

Curious sofascore stats
« on: October 04, 2018, 11:22:02 PM »

I looked through sofascore because that site is handy with tennis to check how the breaks happened in a certain match you didn't watch. At the bottom of the in match scores they have the pre-match odds for bet365 and a little overview like this:

Golubic - Lisicki

1.8 - 1.9

Golubic:

When the odds are 1.80, the implied probability of winning is 56%, but this team actually wins 40% of their matches with these odds.


Lisicki:

When the odds are 1.90, the implied probability of winning is 53%, but this team actually wins 17% of their matches with these odds.


I don't really have access to the respective data but if anyone could check if what Sofascore claim is true from past matches say for Lisicki at odds 1.90 (maybe it's down to small sample size?). Did she really only win 17% of those matches? I know she's crap but if this is really true then the bookies are just having a laugh. I read statistical studies regarding odds in games with win/loss without draw games like tennis and I think the conclusion was that the true outcomes vs the odds had a standard deviation of +-5% so this deviation in above example is absolutely stunning.

Logged
maletaja
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: -26
Posts: 536


View Profile

maletaja

Re: Curious sofascore stats
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2018, 05:27:46 AM »

I think these lines are more sophisticated when you assume based on statistic
When Serena made comeback after baby birth you saw as well very poor odds for Serena...
unless you have specific information that Sabine has a great form which market don't know
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print