Value Betting risk management case

Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Value Betting risk management case  (Read 3352 times)
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 439
Posts: 4269



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Value Betting risk management case
« on: October 07, 2018, 06:22:18 PM »

There is a very experienced member of our forum with 7+ years of very successful action. He started with arbitrage but switched to Value Betting these last years. Everything was going pretty well, but a losing streak occurred these last 2.5 months and as a result he found him self with a loss of 244$k.
The amount is big even for the big guys. This is the first time that I hear about such an immense loss from one of our members.

Today we discussed on Skype about this and we came up with some results. At the end of our discussion I asked him to allow me post his story here so all members get educated from other people's mistakes.

How is he operating?
He is using BetBurger as an indicator comparing Pinnacle with others, and when he sees a big arb 8% and above he takes the bet in the other leg and leaves Pinnacle side uncovered. From a Mathematic point of view this is very much correct to do. He was based on the assumption that Pinnacle lines are correct, and if we cover Pinnacle's margin, then we have value. But here is another hint:
Most of the leagues he is active in are lower leagues. He mentioned as examples Czech U19, Czech U21, Vietnam, Romania 3 and English lower leagues. He is blessed and condemned at the same time to have access to high street odds with a limit of 1000$ per game no matter what the game is. Limits would come but not that fast like betting in bet365 on line. He is blessed because by arbing he is making small treasures, but at the same time condemned because these odds and limits took him down in Value Betting. To anticipate questions, I do not reveal operating procedures of our members and I will not share the secret of having these odds and limits.

So if he is OK from a Mathematic point of view, how did he lose money?
I immediately realised that he put his feet in value traps one after another. Some times well informed bookmakers are giving extremely high odds on an event that they have credible information not available for the wider audience. You see it as value but it is not. It is a trap. A value trap.
This is not happening only in the soft side, but this could happen on the sharp side also. That is why many sharp bookmakers are having profits bigger than their margins.

Unfortunately for our member, these value traps occur more often in lower leagues compared to premiers.
He failed to realised the reason of his long losing streaks and continued operating based in his correct (by that time) Mathematic approach. Also, he failed to implement a good staking plan to reduce his risks from a long losing streak like this one. As a result he lost these 244$k.

Yesterday night he tilted.

Tilting is a point that we should never get to. It is a point where we capitulate to the market. The nadir a Value Bettor could have. At the state of Tilt, our mind is not working properly.

So during the discussion with our member we had to come up with a strategy in order to get him back for good.
After tilting and an immense loss like this, it is difficult to realise if you are sober or not. My first advise is to stop all action for a while, close the computer and make a trip somewhere to detox.
During this time you learn how to take the losses and live with them. We know that his arbing action is producing on average 600$ daily. So I initially suggested to continue Value Betting in premiers and arb the lower leagues. After a 2nd thought I suggested that he quits Value Betting completely, until he makes up these 244k strictly from arbing. It will take him almost 400 days to cover the loss, that is 1 year and 2 months, but after that he will be able to return revamped and self confident again. This is the safer way to go.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2018, 06:34:24 PM by Arbusers » Logged
tarzan
Has experience
**

Karma: 1
Posts: 177


View Profile

tarzan

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2018, 06:57:50 PM »

Leagues and sports with small volume are not good to be indicator for a value bet.
I am using only sports and leagues with volume of 1000 euro and more.
I also asked betbuger owners if its possible to see in their platform for how much money is it possible to placed a bet in pinnacle (what they already have for Betfair) when the arbs show.
Logged
value king
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 11


View Profile

value king

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2018, 07:28:16 PM »

is there a way how we can see if it is a value trap at pinnacle ? I think before one year I played also many of this value traps I the arabic football leagues the odds drop for 50% and there was not a profit after a big sample of bets ( I played offline at the shops where the odds where about 50% higher than pinnacle)
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 439
Posts: 4269



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2018, 07:31:23 PM »

is there a way how we can see if it is a value trap at pinnacle ? I think before one year I played also many of this value traps I the arabic football leagues the odds drop for 50% and there was not a profit after a big sample of bets ( I played offline at the shops where the odds where about 50% higher than pinnacle)

This is terra incognito for many and the only way to explore it is through trial and error. After a big sample you will be able to say where Pinnacle traders have good information and therefore be extra careful when you see a tick up than expected. Paper trading would help but sooner or later you ll have to risk (and lose) some cash.
Logged
tarzan
Has experience
**

Karma: 1
Posts: 177


View Profile

tarzan

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2018, 07:48:04 PM »

This guy is valuebettor for a couple of years and everything works fine until this year.
This is the first seasaon that pinnacle add small football leagues to their service.
The leagues that bring him such a big losses only for two and half months.

You can use 20% arbs as indicator for value bets (like mexican baseball) and you will be in minus.
Why mexican baseball....because somebody can move the odds for 70% with 500 euros.
It is the same with europe hockey leagues (most of them) or tennis future turnaments.
Logged
DPG
Has experience
**

Karma: 5
Posts: 154


View Profile

DPG

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2018, 08:59:43 PM »

It's only a value bet if you know which side of the arb the value is!!! If not and you're betting on some minor league you know nothing about it's akin to gambling.

For example if Barcelona are playing Valencia and the Barca manager rests Messi and Suarez the pinnacle odds for Barcelona will shoot up and you can take a value bet on Valencia with a soft book which is yet to react and change it's odds.

For minor leagues and small limits Pinnacle will not have sharp odds to be able to value bet confidently. Before placing value bets it pays to do some research and see why the discrepancy in the odds exists. A long losing streak in value betting means your methods are all wrong and best to stop immediately and reassess the bets you are placing.

I value bet a lot and I make sure I know exactly why the arb exists and where the value lies. Stick to high liquidity markets and take the outlier odds when comparing with many bookmakers prices.
Logged
Trevorr
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 73


View Profile

Trevorr

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2018, 09:04:18 PM »

I talk about this all the time. You can't always take Pinnacle odds like true odds...There isn't enough volume for minor leagues. You can take odds form MLB, NBA....
Logged
DPG
Has experience
**

Karma: 5
Posts: 154


View Profile

DPG

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2018, 09:08:01 PM »

Pinnacle will not have sharp odds on minor leagues with small limits. A gambler at pinnacle could have come along and moved the odds to create an arb with a small bet. All pinnacle is doing is trying to balance it's book.
Logged
tarzan
Has experience
**

Karma: 1
Posts: 177


View Profile

tarzan

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2018, 09:14:52 PM »

The big problem is that every day more and more gamblers are discoverying pinnacle
Of course that their bets does not affect on big leagues but on small leagues they can make a serious problem for value bettors.
Logged
x-casino
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 82


View Profile

x-casino

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2018, 10:07:45 AM »

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen!
I read very carefully what is posted here from the OP and the rest of the commentators. I m not that experienced in betting like most of you guys, but I have an excellent casino background that many would envy. This gambling world is not an innocent one.
Our friend played most of his bets in lower leagues of eastern Europe and South Eastern Asia. These are not the the cleanest markets in the world. I couldn't describe them as innocent and the whiter doves.
So here is my question. How do we know this guy is not manipulated?
Maybe his value betting action includes picks taken from deep throats, allow me to use this expression. We have seen that in the past. You get 1-2 good picks and you follow the deep throat and then everything goes the other way and the deep throat bets exactly the opposite than you. You lose money he makes money.
Just an idea.
Logged
pythonic
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 6
Posts: 61


View Profile

pythonic

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2018, 10:31:02 AM »

Another advantage with covering these bets at sharps would be that you see their limits on these games automatically when you bet there. And if their limits are much smaller than at some "soft" bookie then there might very well be some reason for that.
In this case it's probably best for the guy to just arb for while just for psychological reasons, even before taking risk management into account.
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 439
Posts: 4269



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2018, 10:46:43 AM »

How do we know this guy is not manipulated?

I asked him if he is following any so called reliable source and his answer is no.

In this case it's probably best for the guy to just arb for while just for psychological reasons, even before taking risk management into account.

Very much correct.
Logged
Chipmunk
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 5
Posts: 90


View Profile

Chipmunk

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2018, 11:10:37 AM »

If you can scrape limits as well as odds, should be not too difficult to train a model that will assess line accuracy.
Logged
Shawn2k
Has experience
**

Karma: 3
Posts: 101


View Profile

Shawn2k

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2018, 11:40:44 AM »

Thanks for sharing this story. Probably a difficult question to answer, but since he did use such big arbs; How big difference did he expect the income would be from valuebetting instead of arbing?

By theory the margin Pinnacle and other asians take is the difference, but that's theory. I think this is one of the most important factors for a user who are considering valuebetting instead of arbing. This guy is obviously blessed with nice limits somehow, so just arbing does not sound bad - Then again, margins at asians are higher on lower leagues, which makes valuebetting attractive.
Logged
tarzan
Has experience
**

Karma: 1
Posts: 177


View Profile

tarzan

Re: Value Betting risk management case
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2018, 01:19:43 PM »

There is one more possibilty to manipulted matches on lower leuague ( I read an article also in newspaper about it).
Before game start to bett on the team that will not win (on pinnacle or betfair)....the odd goes up on the team that will win.
And than in-play (now on the great odd) bett on the winning team.
I dont remember that pinnacle until this season  has so many small leagues in-play.
Even online and offline soft bookies will except much bigger amount bets in-play than pre-match.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 01:49:35 PM by tarzan » Logged
Pages: [1] 2
Print