Pinnacle closing line vs inplay line

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arctrading
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arctrading

Pinnacle closing line vs inplay line
« on: October 09, 2018, 11:39:11 AM »

Hey everyone!

I have a thesis regarding with Pinnacle closing line as true probability. I have been trading on betfair for some time and i have stated that if we take soccer as an example, then we could say that inplay odds dont reflect the true probability which were formed prematch. Heres an example: pinnacle closing line for over 0.5 goals is 1.1(implied probability of 90.9%). At the half time, there are no goals and the odds in betfair are 1.4 for example. At the 50th minute the odds are 1.5 for o0.5 market. So heres the question: can we take this as a valuebet or not? The pinnacle closing line is stating the probability for the all game, not for the1st half. Therefore if we use inplay stats with historical stats, then seeing that 70% of the goals are scored in 2 half, we could take the O0.5 market with odds 1.5 and by that, getting a better price, rather than betting prematch with odds 1.1. I know about fair market theory and that whatever price is showed in betting exchange at the moment, it should reflect the true price(odds) of an underlying asset. Is this kind of approach is based on value reflecting the true probability for whole match or not? I know about betfair and also about its inefficiency in certain situations.(aka algorithms manipulating the market, big money etc)

No hate please.

Thanks :)
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Chipmunk
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Re: Pinnacle closing line vs inplay line
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2018, 12:08:31 PM »

The problem here is that there's a lot of new information from the half that's been played, and livebetting modellers will be taking that into account, your prediction won't.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Pinnacle closing line vs inplay line
« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2018, 02:38:01 PM »

I think that Befair liquid markets pretty much represent true odds just about all the time.
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Pinnacle closing line vs inplay line
« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2018, 03:46:48 PM »

The problem here is that there's a lot of new information from the half that's been played, and livebetting modellers will be taking that into account, your prediction won't.

i did not stated that im trying to make predictions. And i know about new information which affects the price etc. Bets are like options, they are wasting assets(time decay), thats why the favorite price goes up in half time etc. What im stating is that maybe inplay odds are not as efficient as they were before KO and therefore offering some value. My thesis is based on thinking that bet prices offered inplay are not reflecting the true probability of the underlying situation to happen.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Pinnacle closing line vs inplay line
« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2018, 09:32:23 PM »

Given the fact that the live betting market is fairly immature compared to the prematch market, supports your thesis of it being less efficient.

Yes, Betfair liquid markets may best represent the true odds in-game, but with constantly changing conditions such as in an ongoing match, it seems logical that live betting models should be much more inaccurate than prematch models who make predictions on a static situation.

The thesis makes sense, and using the Pinnacle closing line probability in-play may be a tool (among others), to detect in-play hype and inaccurate modelling in order to bet against it.

I wonder if there any statistical studies that demonstrate the accuracy of in-play odds similar to those made of Pinnacle prematch soccer odds?
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