What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?

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barnstorm
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What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?

If you find odds that are 5% better than Pinnacle or Betfair, is that a play? Or only if it is 7% better? 10%?

Or do you need to add more qualifiers to make it a value bet and not just go blindly with a better odds without applying some other value bet parameters or calculations?

For example, if I see Pinny at -290 (1.34) and a Soft Book at -260 (1.38). Is that enough to consider?

Also, if it is better odds, but actually wouldn't represent an Arb play based on the odds offered on the other side, is it still a play? For example, in the example above, +250 (1.4) is the best odds on the other side.

My experience with Arbing is that I would have made a lot more by not laying the Pinny side of the Arb. Depends of course on how much I would be willing to lay on just the one side at the soft book. Also depends on bankroll and psychology of course.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2018, 01:40:59 PM by barnstorm » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 01:55:13 PM »

Think about it.

Say Pinnacle has an odd of 1.91 for a tennis player and an odd of 1.91 for his opponent. Would an odd that's 5% better have value? 

Obviously no.

Simply calculate the sharp odds without their juice and anything above that has value.

In the example above, any odd over 2.0 would have value as the corrected odd for Pinnacle without the juice would be 2.0.

Whether or not you would bet on odds that have 1% value or min 5% is up to you and depends on your bankroll, risk you want to take etc.
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barnstorm
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 05:19:14 PM »

Got it. Must adjust for juice and then decide.

Thanks!
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arctrading
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2018, 12:09:23 AM »

What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?

If you find odds that are 5% better than Pinnacle or Betfair, is that a play? Or only if it is 7% better? 10%?

Or do you need to add more qualifiers to make it a value bet and not just go blindly with a better odds without applying some other value bet parameters or calculations?

For example, if I see Pinny at -290 (1.34) and a Soft Book at -260 (1.38). Is that enough to consider?

Also, if it is better odds, but actually wouldn't represent an Arb play based on the odds offered on the other side, is it still a play? For example, in the example above, +250 (1.4) is the best odds on the other side.

My experience with Arbing is that I would have made a lot more by not laying the Pinny side of the Arb. Depends of course on how much I would be willing to lay on just the one side at the soft book. Also depends on bankroll and psychology of course.

I wont go with betfair as efficient odds. If you compare betfair with other sharps then usually it has higher odds and in low liquid games, the odds are off. Of course, i dont know what sports have in your mind but bear in mind that betfair markets have a lot of algorithmic activity which draws more similarities with financial market, rather than betting market :)
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dealer wins
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2018, 12:42:43 AM »

Betfair exchange are literally the sharpest odds on the planet.
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VidaBlue
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2018, 08:20:18 AM »

My experience with Arbing is that I would have made a lot more by not laying the Pinny side of the Arb. Depends of course on how much I would be willing to lay on just the one side at the soft book. Also depends on bankroll and psychology of course.

This is the exact reason why I transitioned from arbing to value. One's bankroll gets so volatile when you're used to arbing and it can be stressfull initially, but there's nothing worse than realizing how large "insurance fees" have been bled to the sharps over time. I'm glad that I made the change, overall profits are higher and the constant exposure to wins and losses is actually usefull for one's personal development in terms of stress management etc. I have always hated to get parking tickets, but it doesn't ruin my day like it used to, because it is just a minuscule downswing in the much larger picture. In value betting I try to smile both when I win and when I lose as long as my decision was right.

For the estimation of value one can use the juice of the sharp side and surebet percentage, as indicated in this thread. The big challenge is to determine which side of the arb is the soft side - and how soft/wrong this side is, which should affect your stake size. You can continue doing soft side bets where betfair and pinnacle are the sharps and although this is becoming a competitive activity, soft odds are adjusting increasingly faster, you should be profitable in the long run.

In very SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES betfair/pinny are the softs and in some markets they are not even present. This doesn't mean that you can't value bet here. You can do that in both circumstances, but you need some sort of evidence to base it upon.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 08:22:44 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2018, 09:57:13 AM »

My experience with Arbing is that I would have made a lot more by not laying the Pinny side of the Arb. Depends of course on how much I would be willing to lay on just the one side at the soft book. Also depends on bankroll and psychology of course.

This is the exact reason why I transitioned from arbing to value. One's bankroll gets so volatile when you're used to arbing and it can be stressfull initially, but there's nothing worse than realizing how large "insurance fees" have been bled to the sharps over time. I'm glad that I made the change, overall profits are higher and the constant exposure to wins and losses is actually usefull for one's personal development in terms of stress management etc. I have always hated to get parking tickets, but it doesn't ruin my day like it used to, because it is just a minuscule downswing in the much larger picture. In value betting I try to smile both when I win and when I lose as long as my decision was right.

For the estimation of value one can use the juice of the sharp side and surebet percentage, as indicated in this thread. The big challenge is to determine which side of the arb is the soft side - and how soft/wrong this side is, which should affect your stake size. You can continue doing soft side bets where betfair and pinnacle are the sharps and although this is becoming a competitive activity, soft odds are adjusting increasingly faster, you should be profitable in the long run.

In very SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES betfair/pinny are the softs and in some markets they are not even present. This doesn't mean that you can't value bet here. You can do that in both circumstances, but you need some sort of evidence to base it upon.

Good points, however you should take into account that for risk management (and sometimes bankroll size) your stake will usually be lower if you are valuebetting compared to arbing.  A mix of both is also possible, you valuebet part of you stake and plain up arb the rest allowing for even higher profits.
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barnstorm
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2018, 03:52:37 PM »


Good points, however you should take into account that for risk management (and sometimes bankroll size) your stake will usually be lower if you are valuebetting compared to arbing.  A mix of both is also possible, you valuebet part of you stake and plain up arb the rest allowing for even higher profits.

Stakes will be MUCH lower! I was putting up a couple hundred dollars on both sides to win $5 on an Arb, or a couple thousand to win $50. And those were red flags to the Soft Books. You pretty quickly get banned, and in one case, I had a lot of money confiscated.
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barnstorm
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2018, 03:54:44 PM »

Is everyone comfortable value betting even big favs and big dogs? Or does everyone find a comfort zone that they like to value bet?
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VidaBlue
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2018, 10:39:46 PM »

Is everyone comfortable value betting even big favs and big dogs? Or does everyone find a comfort zone that they like to value bet?

I find it best to beat variance by sticking to the range of odds between 1.5 to 3.0. This will give me most continuity on the profit curve.

If I find a value bet below 1.5, I usually search for another value bet with low odds and I do a parlay in order to get into that range. For instance, two value bets at 1.4 actually accumulate a pretty decent value bet at 1.96 with higher value than any of the other two bets alone.

Occasionally I get tempted to bet higher than 3.0, but bearing in mind that the favorite long shot bias hypothesis may be true, I only do it if the value is significant.
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arctrading
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2018, 12:14:44 AM »

Betfair exchange are literally the sharpest odds on the planet.

In what planet?
Dont know much about prematch comparison but if you compare betfair with other sharps inplay then odds are, depending on match situation, pretty off, offering some times a lot of value. For example, last night, the odds from pinnacle for home team were like 22 and in BF you would get odds 33. Betfair is a marketplace. Which means that if the spread is 5 ticks, the last matched price was 1.5 and you offer back for 1.7 and it gets instantly matched by a lucky big order then by all means its not effective market. The only way they are the sharpest are in situation where they have most money matched in a sport event compared with pinnacle for example. Like in a very big match where orderbook shows you pending orders, each many thousands in each price with prematch matched amount few mill. All others, not so liquid markets, BF does not have by all means the sharpest odds on the planet. If BF would be the sharpest, there would no edges nor profitable situations to exploit in less liquid leagues and matches.
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jpdias101
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2018, 02:15:09 AM »

smart guys are using software (robots) to value bet all day on multiple bookmakers.
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Arbermac
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Re: What % from Pinnacle or Betfair are you looking for as a Value Bet?
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2018, 11:38:30 PM »

If you don’t mind dealing with the variance I have found that odds as high as 8 are very profitable. Normally in more obscure events where initial pricing is probably harder and more chance of a bigger mistake. For example I tend to think betting on a Norway amateurs team at 8 is more valuable than on a premier league game at 8 as in general pricing in top leagues is more accurate.


Is everyone comfortable value betting even big favs and big dogs? Or does everyone find a comfort zone that they like to value bet?

I find it best to beat variance by sticking to the range of odds between 1.5 to 3.0. This will give me most continuity on the profit curve.

If I find a value bet below 1.5, I usually search for another value bet with low odds and I do a parlay in order to get into that range. For instance, two value bets at 1.4 actually accumulate a pretty decent value bet at 1.96 with higher value than any of the other two bets alone.

Occasionally I get tempted to bet higher than 3.0, but bearing in mind that the favorite long shot bias hypothesis may be true, I only do it if the value is significant.
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