Determining Fair Value or True Odds?

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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Determining Fair Value or True Odds?
« on: October 19, 2018, 04:58:22 PM »

I understand trying to find value by seeing which Soft Books are way off from Pinnacle, but all this talk about determining value for yourself seems to be very subjective. I mean every bettor thinks he has found value in the teams that he feels strongly will win the match and firmly believes are a bargain value at the current odds. So every bettor is finding a value bet - at least in his mind. But that's subjective of course.

There are many objective means to determine value with computer programs and analysis of team stats etc. But usually you can find programs, trends and prediction models that will indicate or make a case for value on both sides!

So it seems it's just a matter of who are you going to believe to establish your true value. Pinny? Your gut? Your computer program crunching stats? Trends? Line movement? The hottest Tout or Poster?

No one can say they have found the real, true value of a match. It is just what they have come up with through their subjective and/or objective methods of assigning strengths and weaknesses, etc. And two bettors with different methods and perspectives could come up with what they firmly believe is value on completely opposite sides.

I think that's why I would rather just use Pinny as the baseline true value after adjusting for the juice and then go find value with a Soft Book. Maybe some bettors have come up with great evaluation tools and methods that allow them to find value even against Pinny odds. That would be the Holy Grail.
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arctrading
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Re: Determining Fair Value or True Odds?
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2018, 11:16:59 PM »

I understand trying to find value by seeing which Soft Books are way off from Pinnacle, but all this talk about determining value for yourself seems to be very subjective. I mean every bettor thinks he has found value in the teams that he feels strongly will win the match and firmly believes are a bargain value at the current odds. So every bettor is finding a value bet - at least in his mind. But that's subjective of course.

There are many objective means to determine value with computer programs and analysis of team stats etc. But usually you can find programs, trends and prediction models that will indicate or make a case for value on both sides!

So it seems it's just a matter of who are you going to believe to establish your true value. Pinny? Your gut? Your computer program crunching stats? Trends? Line movement? The hottest Tout or Poster?

No one can say they have found the real, true value of a match. It is just what they have come up with through their subjective and/or objective methods of assigning strengths and weaknesses, etc. And two bettors with different methods and perspectives could come up with what they firmly believe is value on completely opposite sides.

I think that's why I would rather just use Pinny as the baseline true value after adjusting for the juice and then go find value with a Soft Book. Maybe some bettors have come up with great evaluation tools and methods that allow them to find value even against Pinny odds. That would be the Holy Grail.

Pinny is just an example of effective market theory which equals true odds minus juice. There has been numerous past analyses for pinnacle odds vs real probabilities and difference was about 2% in big data. Which states that pinny odds are very sharp. People tend to overvalue the sharps, forgetting that the main reason why sharps are sharps, are because of punters with maybe more money and maybe more knowledge than you.
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Arbermac
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Arbermac

Re: Determining Fair Value or True Odds?
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2018, 11:41:58 PM »

The only thing that matters is turning a profit. If you find a way of doing that regardless of the method then stick to it and make money haha

I understand trying to find value by seeing which Soft Books are way off from Pinnacle, but all this talk about determining value for yourself seems to be very subjective. I mean every bettor thinks he has found value in the teams that he feels strongly will win the match and firmly believes are a bargain value at the current odds. So every bettor is finding a value bet - at least in his mind. But that's subjective of course.

There are many objective means to determine value with computer programs and analysis of team stats etc. But usually you can find programs, trends and prediction models that will indicate or make a case for value on both sides!

So it seems it's just a matter of who are you going to believe to establish your true value. Pinny? Your gut? Your computer program crunching stats? Trends? Line movement? The hottest Tout or Poster?

No one can say they have found the real, true value of a match. It is just what they have come up with through their subjective and/or objective methods of assigning strengths and weaknesses, etc. And two bettors with different methods and perspectives could come up with what they firmly believe is value on completely opposite sides.

I think that's why I would rather just use Pinny as the baseline true value after adjusting for the juice and then go find value with a Soft Book. Maybe some bettors have come up with great evaluation tools and methods that allow them to find value even against Pinny odds. That would be the Holy Grail.
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