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Bet365 as reference (baseline)

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bigtuna
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bigtuna

Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« on: November 02, 2018, 03:19:46 AM »

Hey guys,

Anyone using Bet365 liveodds for reference / baseline odds?

I'm thinking they must be getting the highest live turnover of all non-sharp bookies, so maybe they got sharper odds on certain things than the other soft bookies.

Of course they would only be on stuff that is not offered with pinn/asia.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2018, 08:10:11 AM »

You are joking I hope lol
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AlexNotman1
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2018, 08:31:23 AM »

Why discarding an idea before testing? :P
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Wolfie
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2018, 09:27:14 AM »

I have made a test, its totally chaotic. Some months big loses, some big gains. So its attitude is just like any other soft. It is not sharper in general. Experiment data is from live arbing. I dont know in prematch.
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AlexNotman1
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2018, 09:59:54 AM »

But how was overall, just out of curiosity? How many bets?
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arbusers
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 10:06:31 AM »

Bet365 is one of the most profitable bookmakers if not the most profitable globally. That means they are doing some things correctly. One of these things might be odds compiling.
On the other hand, if you take a look in BetBurger, RebelBetting and the other alert services, you will see many arbs between Bet365 and sharps like Betfair, Pinnacle and SBObet. That is very contradictory as it shows that they again do some things wrongly and that is odds compiling again.
To make a long story short, you have to find the exact markets where Bet365 makes money and the markets where Bet365 is losing money. Then make your own decisions. This task is a hard one, but you could at least be based on observation and determine 5-10 markets where Bet365 is correct when compiling odds and then jump on these odds. If you go this way, please keep in mind that value traps are always present in Bet365's odds as it seems they do have some very good information.
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Wolfie
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 10:11:15 AM »

25272 bets in 3 years. Results show that bet365 its not the soft with the best lines. And even the one with the best lines can not be used as reference. Because difference is too low. Softs are softs. The problem is they have almost same business model. Which is very different from sharps business model. You may have a soft which losses for 3 months in a row and than big wins in next 2 months. After the experiment i concluded that no soft can be used as baseline generally. Maybe specific markets yes but even policy of softs at specific markets changes over time.
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Wolfie
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2018, 10:34:34 AM »

Bet365 is one of the most profitable bookmakers if not the most profitable globally. That means they are doing some things correctly. One of these things might be odds compiling.


Bet365 is the most profitable bookmaker. And the most popular one. Tons of mug punters. Their secret is not the odds, its their quality which always stays at top. Beginning from bet acceptance time, site user friendly, good customer service, best IT team of bookies. Again, TONS OF MUG PUNTERS.
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bigtuna
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2018, 11:04:39 AM »

25272 bets in 3 years. Results show that bet365 its not the soft with the best lines. And even the one with the best lines can not be used as reference. Because difference is too low. Softs are softs. The problem is they have almost same business model. Which is very different from sharps business model. You may have a soft which losses for 3 months in a row and than big wins in next 2 months. After the experiment i concluded that no soft can be used as baseline generally. Maybe specific markets yes but even policy of softs at specific markets changes over time.

Thanks for sharing your experiences. That's a good sample of bets. Can I ask what markets/sports you used them for?

My idea was to use them as baseline for obscure sports like badminton, handball, tennis not offered at pinn, futsal etc. The assumption was that most good tipsters on non-asia/pinn sports post their picks with Bet365 and as such, they would be the first to react on sharp stakes coming in.
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Wolfie
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2018, 11:51:53 AM »


The assumption was that most good tipsters on non-asia/pinn sports post their picks with Bet365 and as such, they would be the first to react on sharp stakes coming in.

Yes, but tipsters are on prematch. The sample is on live. I think that all samples less than 3 years are not reliable, for this reason i made it 3 years. Because people have all kind of theories with 4-5 month samples. Sports i have used are soccer, basketball, ice hockey, tennis, volleyball, handball. Markets: Match, set, games, over/under, handicaps. I was doing this to collect data in many directions so based on that i created my betting strategies. It is true to me that sharps have the fairest odds. This did not result true on betting exchanges for small leagues. But you can't turn that into a strategy since liquidity on small leagues is very low. Softs are softs there is no one good enough for use as baseline. But there are categories of softs like local ones which can generate profit if you use against big groups softs odds as base line.
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2018, 07:49:03 PM »

I hope bet365 keeps making their millions of profit year after year. I would be a happy man if they mantain their current business model and platform over the next decade.
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bigtuna
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 04:46:55 AM »


The assumption was that most good tipsters on non-asia/pinn sports post their picks with Bet365 and as such, they would be the first to react on sharp stakes coming in.

Yes, but tipsters are on prematch. The sample is on live. I think that all samples less than 3 years are not reliable, for this reason i made it 3 years. Because people have all kind of theories with 4-5 month samples. Sports i have used are soccer, basketball, ice hockey, tennis, volleyball, handball. Markets: Match, set, games, over/under, handicaps. I was doing this to collect data in many directions so based on that i created my betting strategies. It is true to me that sharps have the fairest odds. This did not result true on betting exchanges for small leagues. But you can't turn that into a strategy since liquidity on small leagues is very low. Softs are softs there is no one good enough for use as baseline. But there are categories of softs like local ones which can generate profit if you use against big groups softs odds as base line.

Plenty of tipsters on live. Especially on tennis, football and basketball. Did you do any analysis on whether some of the sports/markets were sharp?
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Wolfie
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 09:50:43 AM »

On live Bet365 rarely changes odds without something happening. For example in tennis only if a point is made or a fault. So its not that the tipsters make a big difference on live. There are very rare occasions that odds move without something in game happening but i think is something bigger than tipsters. Specific markets are very chaotic and by the way if you divide bets by market or sport even my 3 year sample i think is not enough because number of bets is lower when divided by markets or sports.
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livebettor
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 10:26:34 PM »

bet365 is a great reference to make value bets, a lot of fixers put their money on bet365
when you see strange odds movemente like teams spreading from -0,5 to -4 is just becasue people are putting a lot of money on it
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Arbermac
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Re: Bet365 as reference (baseline)
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2018, 11:31:00 PM »

Agree with this, bet365 takes huge volumes of money on certain events and moves prices accordingly. In this sense it is operating like a sharp. I see on a daily bases bookies altering odds to move in line with bet365 when there are no stronger lines available I.e pinnacle.


bet365 is a great reference to make value bets, a lot of fixers put their money on bet365
when you see strange odds movemente like teams spreading from -0,5 to -4 is just becasue people are putting a lot of money on it
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