The Best Value Bets

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barnstorm
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barnstorm

The Best Value Bets
« on: March 22, 2019, 04:00:27 PM »

There must be a huge database of value bets by now. It must tell us which value bets are best.

Does it make sense to bet EVERY value bet?
Surely, there must be a way to filter them and only bet the best ones.

Maybe value bets on Home teams do much better than value bets on visitors?

Or maybe value bets on Unders do better than value bets on Overs across all sports?

Or sport or geographic specific:
Maybe value bets on Home Soccer teams have a high yield.
Or maybe Unders in the NBA?
Or Overs in South American Soccer?
Or maybe value bets on Draws in Soccer are the best performing value bets of all?

Certainly, someone must have crunched the numbers from the database of all value bets over the past few years.

Why blindly bet them all?
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cristi13
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Re: The Best Value Bets
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2019, 11:34:39 PM »

why would you want to bet only the best ones? Mediocre bets also make money and as a general rule i want to have the highest volume possible. There are nuances to this of course, if i only got a small balance at a bookmaker i don't want to waste it on a marginal bet if i can wait for a high yield bet.
Just derive a theoretical yield from your arb percentage, nobody got time for this kind of statistics, too busy valuebetting
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AlexNotman1
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Re: The Best Value Bets
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2019, 12:10:28 AM »

Dont really get it. Let's say there is efficient market. You calculated you've got 5% value bet. Doesn't matter what market you bet, 5% value bet is 5% value bet. So why asking for "better" value bets? There isn't such thing. This is like asking: "Hey, I've got 50% flip a coin. Better to flip a coin or toss a dice when you get paid for 1-3 or 4-6"? 50% is 50%. As abovementioned, all you need is volume. Stop looking for "better" value bets, focus on volume.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 12:12:17 AM by AlexNotman1 » Logged
barbero
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Re: The Best Value Bets
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2019, 05:53:50 PM »

Would make sense though if you suspect some valuebets are not even really value at all or are close to breaking even. If that's the case then yeah you should try to set those aside from the actual valuebets, obviously. Apart from that I suscribe what has been said.
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: The Best Value Bets
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2019, 04:16:06 PM »

Yeah, I get your points. 5% is 5%. I guess I am saying that some 5% value bets are better than others and finding a filter would really help increase profits.

I guess I would have to prove it by finding evidence that Home 5% Value Bets on Home Teams significantly outperform 5% Value Bets on Visitor. Or that 5% Value Bets on Favorites significantly outperform 5% Value Bets on Underdogs. Or that 5% Value Bets on Unders significantly outperform 5% Value Bets on Overs.

Since there are so many Value Bets recorded by Value Bettors, it should be easy to run those numbers. I just don't have a database myself yet. Perhaps I'll go through these threads and see how many posted databases I can combine and run.

I might come up with no statistical difference, but I expect I will find some filter that increases profits
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: The Best Value Bets
« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2019, 10:30:16 AM »

There must be a huge database of value bets by now. It must tell us which value bets are best.

Does it make sense to bet EVERY value bet?
Surely, there must be a way to filter them and only bet the best ones.

Maybe value bets on Home teams do much better than value bets on visitors?

Or maybe value bets on Unders do better than value bets on Overs across all sports?

Or sport or geographic specific:
Maybe value bets on Home Soccer teams have a high yield.
Or maybe Unders in the NBA?
Or Overs in South American Soccer?
Or maybe value bets on Draws in Soccer are the best performing value bets of all?

Certainly, someone must have crunched the numbers from the database of all value bets over the past few years.

Why blindly bet them all?

Based on my stats the best value bets come from AH with odds range under 2.Less variance and bigger win streak. But i dont take value based on pinnacle closing odds so it is less bets and bigger ROI. So in the end the ROC is i guess the same as beating the closing line style of value betting. Also the leagues i bet are not covered on asians so only some softs and if they get limited then edge is dimished also. If you valuebet only by trying to beat the closing line then take as much value and bets you can. More turnover more profit:)
If you want big data then the only one i have seen about valuebetting is from trademate. You can draw pretty good conclusion about that:) https://www.blog.tradematesports.com/sports-betting-statistics/2017/3/21/big-data-analysis-is-trademate-profitable
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: The Best Value Bets
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2019, 12:39:38 PM »

Thanks!
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