Different stakes

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AlexNotman1
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AlexNotman1

Different stakes
« on: March 23, 2019, 10:19:28 PM »

Anyone got experience with different stakes value betting? What I know is that pros pound odds until they hold value. And from my experience is that if you bet with higher stakes often you won't get odds you like cause they like to drop while betting so won't be possible to bet flat stakes. Considering math I guess stakes doesn't matter as long as you take value and if we talk about high number of games, luck will even out, sometimes you're gonna win when you stake high, sometimes you will luckily lose bets when you managed to place smaller stakes only. So I'm pretty sure it doesn't matter (as long as you don't overbet if we talk about stakes) but just wonder if someone bets this way and how this influence expected profit.
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barbero
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Re: Different stakes
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2019, 03:24:02 AM »

You need to be careful if you're gonna max bet (or even bet big) because stakes allowed correlates quite clearly with leagues' "size". And it could very well happen that your EV in big leagues where you can bet more is not as big as you would expect, therefore reducing your average EV.

Apart from such effects that you need to consider, where you might end up placing more money in less profitable bets without noticing... I agree with you that as long as there is value, pounding that line will yield EV+ (that is, given no bankroll limitation or (not a good idea) just ignoring your bankruptcy risk).

I bet in the way you've described. It is certainly frustrating to win 5 bets of stake X and then lose 1 bet of stake 20*X. Overall I end up getting extremely profitable months but also extremely negative ones. It is my impression that it is more profitable than flat staking, but I have not done the numbers so it's just that, an impression, sorry that's all I can tell you.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Different stakes
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2019, 08:57:58 PM »

It is more profitable in long run to use max bet. In leagues where max bet is very high you can set a personal max bet according to your bankroll. But you should be prepeared for some ups and downs like barbero mentioned. If you want a peace of mind is better with flat to win amount.
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AlexNotman1
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AlexNotman1

Re: Different stakes
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2019, 08:01:46 PM »

Anyone with "to win" calculator? I used to bet inplay so calculating time is crucial. Thanks.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Different stakes
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2019, 09:14:12 AM »

Anyone with "to win" calculator? I used to bet inplay so calculating time is crucial. Thanks.

I personally calculate it in my mind since in live you do not have the time to use a calculator. It is hard at the beginning but since you are an experienced arber you will get used fast.
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AlexNotman1
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AlexNotman1

Re: Different stakes
« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2019, 09:18:28 AM »

Anyone with "to win" calculator? I used to bet inplay so calculating time is crucial. Thanks.

I personally calculate it in my mind since in live you do not have the time to use a calculator. It is hard at the beginning but since you are an experienced arber you will get used fast.

That is what I was thinking... Often I don't even get a time to get full stake at odds I like not even thinking about calculating anything.
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