Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience

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bettomane
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bettomane

Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« on: November 04, 2019, 12:56:34 AM »

Hi everyone, I wrote very little on the forum but I've been following you for months.
I have been experimenting for some time with my method of placing valuebets on bookmakers in my country (Italy) and at the moment the profit is going very well (roi on 20%); the betting sample is still small (around 300 bets) and I know that the average value will be much lower but at the moment this is not what I want to celebrate but I would like to understand if what I am doing is a good way to bet.

I try to explain what I do:

I individualize some games with strong fluctuations in height and on the basis of the pinnacle line I place the play on softbooks that exposes me the same share increased at least by 10% (example Juve - Milan pinnacle 1 @ 1,7 and i bet on juve 1 softbook at 1.87).
On average I am placing about 20 bets every day with avg bets of around € 25.

I haven't defined an initial cash and I'm not applying any kelly criterion, the only rule I use is to bet> 10% compared to the pinnacle line and play more on the wrong odds.

I also try to select the teams that play at home and for the away teams I choose the DNBs with at least a 15% increase compared to the pinnacle line.

At the moment he only bets on football and I can say that with the under / over market I can't get good results even if the valuebets have a very high ev.

Can you give me any suggestions on what I'm doing?
Am I totally wrong with my method and am I just lucky in 15 days of testing or am I on the right track?

Thanks for all the feedback you want to give me!
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VidaBlue
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Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 08:27:13 AM »

Thank you for this post bettomane and congratulations with your winnings.

There are 2 lines that that strike me and I recognize when comparing with my own value betting:

At the moment he only bets on football and I can say that with the under / over market I can't get good results even if the valuebets have a very high ev.
I have positive ROI on around 90 % of the combinations sport / type of bet. O/U markets in soccer is my worst combination and the tendency is increasing. I keep betting with very low stakes while I try to understand what is going on. Eventually I might bet on the (as per definition) sharp side.

the only rule I use is to bet> 10% compared to the pinnacle line and play more on the wrong odds.
There have been other discussions in this forum which indicate that focusing on high EV is the way to go. This encompasses with my personal belief on the subject. Say you have a match with 2 perfectly equal opponents, A vs B. True odds are 2.00 on each team. The sharps lines are launched and ends up at something like 2.0/1.8, which is interpreted as true odds of something like 2.1/1.9 (round numbers). The sharps lines will not move any further, because it would not make sense to bet at 2.00 (zero EV) or below, so the line stays at an inaccurate level. Odds like 1.99, 1.95, etc. on team B seem like small value bets, but actually they have negative EV.

1 line makes me curious:
I also try to select the teams that play at home and for the away teams I choose the DNBs
Why?

You are on a promising track. I would suggest the following from now on:
  • Be very meticulous about the data on your bet history. This data will be your friend later on.
  • Be careful with losing markets, such as the soccer O/U. Keep betting in order to stay in touch, but lower the stakes.
  • Start defining a staking plan. Test the staking plan on your current bet history, bearing in mind of course, that you might have been mostly lucky so far.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2019, 08:35:00 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
arbusers
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Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 09:04:45 AM »

@bettomane, thank you for sharing your experience in the forum.

I would like to know if you are betting online or offline. I know Italy is a land of opportunity in gambling and many Italian members are practicing value betting successfully.

Simple ideas are those that perform best in gambling. If I understand correctly, you take Pinnacle as a reference and when you see a big price difference you jump on the wave. I like it.
For me, a sample of 300 bets is enough to prove that you are value betting and not gambling. What is left to be answered is:
- What is the performance in the long run?
- The analysis and segmentation of your bets.
If you have a good idea about these, then you can proceed in a staking plan that would maximize your profits.

I will be happy to see your graphs in the forum at any convenient time for you, as our members are graph lovers.
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Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 03:06:53 PM »

Hello @bettomane and thanks for sharing your experience. I was wondering:
1) How you find out the strong fluctuations games? Do you use a software or you just check them manually?
2) You mentioned that your average stake is 25, according to what bankroll though?
3) Your base line is pinnacle and I will agree with that decision, however you just use the highest soft to bet with? Or you are using a specific soft which tend to be more worthy on the markets you chose on soccer for instance?
Note: Always keep tracking of your bet history, this is the most important part when value betting.
I wish you more earnings in the future!
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bettomane
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bettomane

Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 11:24:00 AM »

Hello to everyone , i  try to give you more information:

1- Yes i use some software that scans the pinnacle market and then compares the odds on a couple of bookmakers and I always try to bet on the highest odds.

2- I decided for avg bet 25 euros without a particular reason but it is an amount that allows me to feel comfortable and face the game without stress. I have assumed an initial cash of at least € 10,000 to have at least 400 buy-ins to combat variance.

3- I keep track of every bet I make by noting the pinnacle odds and the "wrong" odds I can play with the amount and type of bet.
In these days I try to make a clear excel file and I will post it here on the forum to collect your advice.

Thanks friends !
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2019, 08:21:00 AM »

You have a working strategy here.
Are you placing your bets online or in shops?
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quintilio
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quintilio

Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2019, 10:33:14 AM »

Thanks for your suggestion.
I'm very happy to see that are others italians in this amazing forum  8)

Hi everyone, I wrote very little on the forum but I've been following you for months.
I have been experimenting for some time with my method of placing valuebets on bookmakers in my country (Italy) and at the moment the profit is going very well (roi on 20%); the betting sample is still small (around 300 bets) and I know that the average value will be much lower but at the moment this is not what I want to celebrate but I would like to understand if what I am doing is a good way to bet.

I try to explain what I do:

I individualize some games with strong fluctuations in height and on the basis of the pinnacle line I place the play on softbooks that exposes me the same share increased at least by 10% (example Juve - Milan pinnacle 1 @ 1,7 and i bet on juve 1 softbook at 1.87).
On average I am placing about 20 bets every day with avg bets of around € 25.

I haven't defined an initial cash and I'm not applying any kelly criterion, the only rule I use is to bet> 10% compared to the pinnacle line and play more on the wrong odds.

I also try to select the teams that play at home and for the away teams I choose the DNBs with at least a 15% increase compared to the pinnacle line.

At the moment he only bets on football and I can say that with the under / over market I can't get good results even if the valuebets have a very high ev.

Can you give me any suggestions on what I'm doing?
Am I totally wrong with my method and am I just lucky in 15 days of testing or am I on the right track?

Thanks for all the feedback you want to give me!
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stepby
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stepby

Need advice please!
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2019, 11:00:42 AM »

Greetings ladies and gentlemen,
I used to be a conventional bettor a habit which I only stopped after losing all my savings 3 years ago. I now have a job which occupies me 13 hours a day for $1,000 a month yet working thousands of miles away from my family. Its only now am learning about smart betting. I have $4,000 which i feel like investing in arbing.
Can anyone please advise on how many bookies and how much I need to deposit into each one given the size of my bankroll and who are the best bookies?
And can arbing be feasible than that job I have described above?
Appreciated in advance!
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Need advice please!
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2019, 11:10:47 AM »

Greetings ladies and gentlemen,
I used to be a conventional bettor a habit which I only stopped after losing all my savings 3 years ago. I now have a job which occupies me 13 hours a day for $1,000 a month yet working thousands of miles away from my family. Its only now am learning about smart betting. I have $4,000 which i feel like investing in arbing.
Can anyone please advise on how many bookies and how much I need to deposit into each one given the size of my bankroll and who are the best bookies?
And can arbing be feasible than that job I have described above?
Appreciated in advance!

Welcome !
I advise you to start by opening an account in sharps or one of the brokers offered by arbusers. For the beginning you need only one soft which has lots of arbs just to train yourself with low stakes. For example marathonbet or willhill. Do not invest all your savings. Start testing with 1000$ first and as you become better at it start investing more.
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albytro4
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albytro4

Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2019, 06:41:39 PM »

Hi everyone, I wrote very little on the forum but I've been following you for months.
I have been experimenting for some time with my method of placing valuebets on bookmakers in my country (Italy) and at the moment the profit is going very well (roi on 20%); the betting sample is still small (around 300 bets) and I know that the average value will be much lower but at the moment this is not what I want to celebrate but I would like to understand if what I am doing is a good way to bet.

I try to explain what I do:

I individualize some games with strong fluctuations in height and on the basis of the pinnacle line I place the play on softbooks that exposes me the same share increased at least by 10% (example Juve - Milan pinnacle 1 @ 1,7 and i bet on juve 1 softbook at 1.87).
On average I am placing about 20 bets every day with avg bets of around € 25.

I haven't defined an initial cash and I'm not applying any kelly criterion, the only rule I use is to bet> 10% compared to the pinnacle line and play more on the wrong odds.

I also try to select the teams that play at home and for the away teams I choose the DNBs with at least a 15% increase compared to the pinnacle line.

At the moment he only bets on football and I can say that with the under / over market I can't get good results even if the valuebets have a very high ev.

Can you give me any suggestions on what I'm doing?
Am I totally wrong with my method and am I just lucky in 15 days of testing or am I on the right track?

Thanks for all the feedback you want to give me!

Hi bettomane, awesome results.. are you keeping track of closing odds EV? How much time before the start of the match do you usually bet with the mentioned EV?
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CptShark
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CptShark

Re: Analysis and advice on my valuebet experience
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2019, 01:25:51 AM »

What are your average odds?

If your average odds are 2.00 then, statistically, your P value is ~0 which means your method is working and you haven't reached your current stats by pure luck/chance.
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