Reliable sample,live value bet strategy

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arvan
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arvan

Reliable sample,live value bet strategy
« on: December 25, 2019, 05:14:53 PM »

Hello everyone.I started testing a live value bet strategy recently.I bet only football live games that i watch(average odds 1.3).My strategy includes some basic prematch preparation.At the moment i have a 140 sample of bets and 12 units profit=8,5 roi (i bet 1 unit/bet).My question is about sample.When i should consider my sample reliable in order to have a good estimation about my true roi?I use some free bet variance calculators which include confidence interval calculator.According to these tools,it is not very possible for my strategy to be a looser( 95% level of confidence,worst case 0% roi).I was a bit surprised because my sample is very small.
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arctrading
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Re: Reliable sample,live value bet strategy
« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2019, 03:55:30 PM »

If you only bet certain country, certain leagues(lets say 1,2 and 3rd league) then its already ok sample. Tho, should be around 300 bets in order to see if you have edge or not. If more leagues are covered then its clearly a small indicator and you should have around 500-1k in order to draw some conclusions...
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arvan
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Re: Reliable sample,live value bet strategy
« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2019, 04:21:28 PM »

If you only bet certain country, certain leagues(lets say 1,2 and 3rd league) then its already ok sample. Tho, should be around 300 bets in order to see if you have edge or not. If more leagues are covered then its clearly a small indicator and you should have around 500-1k in order to draw some conclusions...
   

Thank you.I play poker for a living since 2014 so i know what variance means.The poker games i play have huge variance,even after 5000k games you cant say that you  have a certain roi.Sports betting is probably what i would like to do for living at the future.I tried pre match football value bets with a 5 roi after 500 sample games but it took too much time to build it because i was only betting games from my country(greece) which i am sure that i have an edge.So now i try live betting,i feel comfortable because i am watching and playing football since i was born.I try to focus on certain leagues,i keep notes after a game ends etc.But i understand that volume is very important(like poker) so i cant be restricted to 1-2 leagues.I  cant afford staking a  lot of money at the moment so i have to increase my volume by being less selective to the games i watch(and bet)
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arctrading
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Re: Reliable sample,live value bet strategy
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2019, 11:35:05 PM »

Okay then stick to that. If you did 500 bets last season which means atleast average 50 bets per month then raise your stakes and sharpen your edge. Basically, if you prematch then variance does not matter much, what matters if you beat the closing line(and how much) or  not. Once you have done few hundred bets and 90%´+ of the  time you beat the line with lets say 5% margin, you should not worry. I suggest to use some kind of betting spreadsheet or online option like bettingmetrics etc. They have good simulation options and all data is easily visible(avg odds, best odds, worst odds, basically same analysing functionalities that come with poker HUD software)

Regarding with volume(betting volume not money) then it does not matter as much as it matters with poker. In betting, variance is a bit different. In betting, its ok to have 1k bets within years with 20% roi and avg 20 bets per month. Maybe 1-2 unit few downmonths but overall good. With betting volume you can tune that out yes. For example, with my approach of making around 600 bets per month, i only had couple of down weeks and thats all. So yes, it all comes down to what roi you chase and so on. With 30 -50 bets per month you can have 20-30% roi if hitting only soft bookies. Try to have that roi with 500 bets per month :) So if you want good roi, can stake much then better to take less bets with more quality route. If you want to avoid variance as much as possible and like to grind then take the volume of bets route.
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arvan
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Re: Reliable sample,live value bet strategy
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2019, 07:58:01 AM »

By volume i mean the turnover.So as you said it depends on on the stake,if i could bet 1k/bet then i would be more selective.At the end,the only that matters is the net profit.I find really hard to find such many pre match value bets,how you do that?600 games sound a lot to me,do u use any kind of service or bot? i am really newbie when it comes to softwares,bot etc.I follow the traditional way,i can have good knoweledge of 4 leagues maximum.Thats the reason that i now try live betting,it offers me the chance to bet more games.Also you said about beating the closing pinnacle line in order to check if i have an edge and it makes sense but what about in play betting?Is there something that i could check besides the final result?
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arctrading
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Re: Reliable sample,live value bet strategy
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2020, 08:22:41 AM »

I use tipsters, have a portfolio of 35 something tipsters that i follow and reevalute at the end of the each month. I also use BF programs, monitor odds movements(in play and prematch), use software for that and i also have a lot of info from different sources. Lets say i see that some SA game had huge odds dropp then by analysing the movement i could tell around 50% of time whether it was some tipster or something else(like syndicate etc). Also i like to bet a lot on suspicious games. I have notes about different leagues, teams which are dirty so i try to get info about them also. So i monitor the odds movements a lot and take that into consideration. Also i have my own so called leagues that i follow(south  american leagues) with ok roi about 8% in asia.  Regarding with inplay betting then in most cases, unless you bet on dropping odds, you should beat the line(unless the pre line was 2.2, closing 1.8 and you bet at 1.82.). Regarding with inplay, its a bit harder to evaluate the edge. You have to really have some screen time in order to find a good spot. For me, its usually like this: Start watching game i fancy in prematch with prematch info. Then just waiting to see good spots. Sometimes i even have a prematch bet in, lets say for basketball have handi -5.5 and then watch the game and see that better team is behind and line is +9.5 now because of last quarter was bad so i take the line and worst case scenario i lose both bets if favorite will perform badly full game,  so and so scenario one lost one win and good scenario is that both win. First scenario usually does not happen much. Nevertheless its hard to explain live betting, you have to judge/analyse it live and take into consideration the info u have prematch.
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