How risky is arbing handicaps where one is including OT and the other one isn't?

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Author Topic: How risky is arbing handicaps where one is including OT and the other one isn't?  (Read 780 times)
nyderrach
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nyderrach


Exactly the title. Should you do it?
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Alfa1234
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Your expected value would be massively negative long term so I recommend to simply stay away.  Say you would have a 3% arb, that means you would be risking 100€ to win 3€ on every arb.  Overtime probably happens every 5-10% of all games played (depending on the sport, much more in Hockey) so most probably not worth it.

If you have to ask this question, it's better to keep it simple and stay away to save yourself the stress.
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VidaBlue
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It is difficult to answer not knowing which kind of bets you are referring to.

For instance, an arb at the O/U 5.5 market in hockey is independent of overtime, but the O/U 4.5 definitely isn't.

You could evaluate the risk in each case. Let's consider overtime in basket, which is rare but does happen now and then. If you for instance have an arb between home-win at the 1X2 market and the away-win at the moneyline market, the outcome that will make you lose both bets would be home team wins in overtime. Looking at the overtime odds which are around 20.0, you may estimate that the chance for overtime is less than 5 percent and hometeam win in overtime even lower, maybe 2-3 percent. So if the ROI from your arb is way better than that, it could be worth the risk.

But if you're ready to take this risk, you're probably not an arber after all.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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It depends on sport and the handicap.

You had said arbing handicaps. If it's europen handicap in hockey, then absolutely there's no risk. Why? Because european handicap can be -1, -2, -3 or greater. Even if line is -1,5, it doesn't matter if OT is included or not since there can be MAXIMUM 1 goal in OT.

You bet -1,5 Jets OT included.
You bet +1,5 Penguins OT not included.

''OT included or not'' does not effect yout bet here.

About O/U lines, it doesn't matter again if line is 5½ or 7½ since there can be MAXIMUM 1 goal in OT. (Actually, there can be more goals in Shootouts but it doesn't matter since 1 goal awarded to winner in OT)

About basketball, stay away if handicap is less then -30. Even -16 handicap is not safe. Remember, Fenerbahçe beat CSKA by 16 points in OT, 2016 December.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 03:46:43 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged
barbero
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barbero


Careful with euro handicap +1 though, Sawyer
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