Value betting on Football

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GStyle
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GStyle

Value betting on Football
« on: January 02, 2020, 09:27:31 PM »

Hello guys,

When i see 2.30 on soft, and 2.10 sharp, is 2.30 value? or its different type of value between markets? for example, market cards and corners, if i see this type of differences, we have the same value?
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dnf
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Re: Value betting on Football
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2020, 02:16:22 PM »

Hello guys,

When i see 2.30 on soft, and 2.10 sharp, is 2.30 value?
I'd say, generally, yes.

Empirically, if you e.g. always assume pinnacle's closing lines are correct (fudging the overround) and use them to bet against b365's closing lines, you can end up with a 2-3% positive ROI with proper staking, and this number could probably be much higher if you didn't have to fudge the overround and could know how it was allocated.

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or its different type of value between markets? for example, market cards and corners, if i see this type of differences, we have the same value?
I'm not super familiar with football, but I can't think of a good reason it wouldn't still be a predictor of value. It's worth keeping in mind that even sharp books are less accurate with their props lines, though, so it might not be as strong an indicator of +EV as it would be for outrights or spreads.
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