beating the closing odds live?

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meisterhaft
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meisterhaft

beating the closing odds live?
« on: February 06, 2020, 11:59:07 AM »

In prematch value betting is to beat the sharpest line of a certen market. Most used is probably pinnacle as an example.
So we should make a profit if we can hit odds higher than the closing ones at a regular basis. Wouldn't it be possible to bet live on odds higher than the closing ones?
I understand that that would bring some problem such as "value" in every match cause someone has to win, so the odds for the opponent get higher.
But wouldn't it be possible to get a lot of value bets with some rules such as betting only when less than 20 mins are played (for soccer for example)?

One would just have to ignore all new informations gathered while the game is in play but would beat the closing odds quite often, which should bring profit.
I understand that the problem that we get value in every match is a big one but beating the closing line is said to be profitable.
I would love to hear what you guys have to say about that. Maybe i am all wrong here.
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dealer wins
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2020, 01:28:30 PM »

As soon as a match starts, the odds will represent the current likelyhood of the winner ,taking into account how a team is playing etc  You cannot correlate the live odds with the pre-match odds.
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meisterhaft
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2020, 01:47:09 PM »

As soon as a match starts, the odds will represent the current likelyhood of the winner ,taking into account how a team is playing etc  You cannot correlate the live odds with the pre-match odds.

I understand that. The goal at pre match value betting is to get better odds than the sharpest closing one (as far as I understand). So when pinnacle offer 1.7 for team 1 as a closing line and we were able to get that bet at 1.8 we would make a profit (assuming pinnacle is as accurate as possible). Now I think that we could get 1.8 or even 1.9 as a live bet for team 1. The bet would still have value because it is above the closing line of pinnacle. So the thesis that one is profitable if he can place bets for the outcome higher than pinnacles closing odds would mean that that would be a valid way.
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dealer wins
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2020, 02:01:53 PM »

Using your example, after 20 minutes play the odds should have increased to 1.9, as they now have played 20 minutes without scoring, meaning they are less likely to win the game now, than before kickoff. Its not value, just that they will win less times overall with 70 minutes left, than at the start of the game.

You can see this in every soccer match, imagine we now are on 86 minutes and its still 0-0 or a draw, you can get odds of 10 or even 20, because every minute that passes will mean less chance of winning for the favorite.

The matches where the team do score, they will now be 1.2, compensating for the 1.9 when they dont score, and occasionally they will be losing giving odds of 3+ im guessing.

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DPG
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2020, 02:42:03 PM »


Also you need to take in to account any injuries to players and substitutions made and any yellow/red cards given. Say a team has both central defenders booked in the opening 15 minutes then they are both on the back foot for the rest of the match.
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arctrading
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2020, 04:04:26 PM »

it would only work if u monitor games with high prematch drop. lets say pre price was 2 and Closing Line was 1.4. Then Away scores and you can take handi for home. This is all theoretical because i dont have a big sample size to back the claims here. i only do this on games where i have prematch info and i do take other bets also so unfortunately dont have clear roi and sample size to provide. Also have to take into consideration inplay data also. With this example, lets say away team is playing more aggressively with more shots and attacks. Would you back home now? Def no. But, if first goal is made from away team from first shot but home team have been dominating the whole match so far then yes, this could be considered as value.
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Samael
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2020, 10:39:37 PM »

For me obsession with closing lines is relatively outdated.
There are times when they are indicative and sometimes its complete garbage (most obvious examples are
public bets).I mostly ignore them.

I think this was interesting 5-10 years ago when you had pinnacle lines vs slow soft bookies
and people who arbed noticed their pinn account drying up.
Now softs dont even bother opening their lines and just wait to copycat.

Lines in live betting can never be completely sharp or correct given that current scoreline is affecting them (important).
If closing lines trick work so good lot more people would be rich.

Just my opinion and theories ,i can be wrong.Would be cool if someone is actually tracking data for this.
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arbusers
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2020, 08:08:08 AM »

Very well said Samael.
I see no point beating the closing line. Profitable betting comes down to mathematics. One's task is to get the highest possible odds, no matter if they occur 1 day, 1 hour or 1 second before the event starts. Really, it would be very interesting to find out, what is the percentage of the events, where the closing line is the highest line offered. Odds are fluctuating all the time. Of course, steam appears in bigger doses as we are nearing the event, but this is not really a guarantee that the highest odd will be offered as a closing line. 
In certain aspects, Pinnacle became a myth. Partly because they are indeed pioneers, but partly because their marketing team is doing an excellent job.
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Samael
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2020, 09:08:09 AM »

Very well said Samael.
Profitable betting comes down to mathematics. One's task is to get the highest possible odds,

My mathetmatics knowledge is like 2nd grader,i can count and thats about it.
Its always good to know things (just like with coding and scraping) but math is not essential for everyone.

While i agree with your statement,bigger the odds you get-the better i am personally taking a lot of bad odds as well.
We can call it "theory of a winning side",and for me its about establishing winner not chasing boosted odd.
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Wolfie
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2020, 09:35:32 AM »

Very well said Samael.
Profitable betting comes down to mathematics. One's task is to get the highest possible odds,

My mathetmatics knowledge is like 2nd grader,i can count and thats about it.
Its always good to know things (just like with coding and scraping) but math is not essential for everyone.

While i agree with your statement,bigger the odds you get-the better i am personally taking a lot of bad odds as well.
We can call it "theory of a winning side",and for me its about establishing winner not chasing boosted odd.

Odds are the probability of winning so what you are saying its the same. You establish your own odds and than see bookie odds. If bookie odds are bigger than your odds than there is value. If you have established the winner than their odds are 1.00. So if you find odds bigger than that you bet.
 I think there is no measured time where odds go up or down so we can not wait for the perfect moment. If odds are at your expected value you bet whatever the time. Surely taking your own odds as base not pinny.
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VidaBlue
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2020, 07:12:02 PM »

So we should make a profit if we can hit odds higher than the closing ones at a regular basis.
I think that the estimated market value at the time of the bet, will always be more useful than the market value at game start. Liquidity for the market at the closing line is often quite high, so many tend to see this as the “quizanswer” to how the odds should be, which indeed makes some sort of sense. However, it is still just a public opinion and an estimate, because beating the closing line over thousands of bets may not necessarily make you a winner. The only variable that directly shows performance, is the actual profit. The assumption that the closing line holds a more reliable “quizanswer” than pre-match or live does seem reasonable, but one also has to factor in that it is the moment in time where the market is more efficient and calibrated, and thus with the disadvantage of lower value bet EV margins.

I’ve put the closing line study on hold for now and I don’t give it much attention. The reason for this is hopefully obvious in this example: I have often done pre-match betting weeks in advance on high profile soccer matches, which obviously leads to large differences with the closing odds given the many days until game start. Let’s say those were 3 bets with odds 10% above the estimated true value at the time of the bet. When the matches began, two of the bets were now 10% below the closing line true value and one was 50% above. Most of those three bets did not beat the closing line, but the average margin compared to the closing line was still the same and positive. When I look back on hundreds of these events in order to evaluate performance, the closing line study doesn’t really help me with anything other than confusion - the actual game results DO help.

To sum up, introducing the closing line odds into the analysis above just unnecessarily complicates things … at least for me. I think the pre-match scenario can be compared to a live scenario with regards to closing line.

It would be interesting to hear if someone has done useful analysis on their betting based upon closing line odds.
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jonibiza19
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2020, 01:13:50 AM »

Interesting topic right here.
Its pretty unanimous that beating the vig-free Pinnacle closing line leads to profit. Thats pure pre-match valuebetting strategy.
However Live is different, I´m not sure if Pinnacle is as sharp on live events as it is on Pre match. Also their margins are bigger in live, so their vig-free odds have a bigger gap, so bigger differences need to be found on Softs to catch value.
I believe Betfair exchange may be more accurate in True odds live, particular in European Football matches with decent liquidity.  Also heard bet365 tennis live odds can be very sharp on low tier tournaments.
Intensive testing and research is key, but you need to find your edge and work with it.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2020, 01:23:14 AM by jonibiza19 » Logged
nikitak0ndratjev
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2020, 05:11:21 PM »

ALWAYS bet on a team whose coefficient is less and does not go beyond 1.55. The lower the number, the less risk.  8)
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arctrading
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Re: beating the closing odds live?
« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2020, 06:57:08 PM »

Easyest way to do this inplay is by betting on dropping odds. Hard thing is to actually do it :D
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