Long on BTC (page 9)

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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #120 on: January 07, 2021, 05:59:59 PM »
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It makes no sense to predict who will sell and who will not. But it worths mentioning 2 categories of investors/speculators who are definitely selling right now, or will sell at a point.

1. Institiutionals, for the reasons previously mentioned.
2. All these old-timers (not so old really) that felt the 2017-18 bubble. I am sure these people will not want to see a deja vous.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #121 on: January 07, 2021, 07:02:32 PM »
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followed your suggestion as always.

Do you expect a massive sell from the same institutions that caused the price pump?

I mean, those institutions aren't supposed to be long term investors that will hold btc for ages etc?

This is just to say that usually institutions aren't bying or selling via exchanges but OTC , so supposedly their actions doesn't have immediate impact on price
and also usually they build longer term positions . However with this kind of parabolic movement any attempt to reasonably follow the market has no meaning.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #122 on: January 11, 2021, 04:49:57 PM »
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Bitcoin and the other cryptos are falling to prices that we have never seen for the last 6... days.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #123 on: January 11, 2021, 06:30:18 PM »
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Quote
Bitcoin and the other cryptos are falling to prices that we have never seen for the last 6... days.

:)
Maybe this was the breath space we desparately needed.
In my view best case scenario would be a consolidation (or even a mild falling) period of at least a week and then start going north again
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #124 on: January 11, 2021, 07:22:17 PM »
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Maybe this was the breath space we desparately needed.
In my view best case scenario would be a consolidation (or even a mild falling) period of at least a week and then start going north again

I am not sure if we can see a consolidation. We need to define consolidation first. But when you see price differences of 4.000$ within 15 minutes time, then it is difficult to see a consolidation.
Of course the general trend remains bullish, but at this point in time nobody knows what will happen. That is why we sold 50% of our BTC position, so we have the fire power to buy more if it goes down, or enjoy supreme performances if it goes up. Already, the price of BTC is below our average selling price. But before putting my hand in the wallet to buy more BTCs, I will need to see significant discounts.
One think I regret, for now, is that I didn't sell more of my ETH a couple of days ago.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2021, 08:42:51 PM by arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #125 on: January 13, 2021, 07:10:52 AM »
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I would like to provide an update on what the current state of play is with BTC.
Markets are dominated by randomness and we always try to position ourselves in a way where our risks are lower than our potential profits. Because of this we adopted a dynamic dollar cost averaging tactic (DDCA) according which we sell more as prices go up and we buy more as prices go down. We base our action on data and analysis, and not emotions. So far we sold 50% of our BTC position at an average selling price that is already above the current price. But we need to have an idea on where the market is, in order to have our plan for now on and act accordingly.

In my view, the market remains on a bullish mode, despite the recent sell off. The reasons why I see this are the following:

1. On a macro level, we are still within a cycle that is expected to top in the coming years. Ideally this should happen between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023.
2. No major technical indicator is broken yet. Most of analysts at various levels are using moving averages to determine their position in the markets. We do that also at a more macroscopic level, but even if you have a look at the simple 20 day moving average, this is not broken yet. Because of the abundance of technical indicators we selected to focus only on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that takes away the noise protecting us from distraction. And that leads us to…
3. The weekly RSI is giving a toping signal as you see in the following graph, and that was one of the reasons that we sold a large chunk of our BTC position at 40000$. But at the same time, the monthly RSI, which is considered stronger than the weekly, did not close to the previous ATHs to a level that would indicate the top of a bull cycle. In addition, no negative divergences are present in both weekly and monthly frames.

BTC update.png

With all these in mind, we conclude the market needed a stop over to wipe out dumb money. We do not know how long this stop over will be. The volatility in prices is that big, that makes us believe there are not many possibilities for the market to move at these prices for long. The market will have to decide where to move in the coming days, and thus provide to us more data about the long view.
In any case, we sold 50% of our position and we maintain a powerful buying power that will allow us to buy some more if prices go significantly lower. We will also be very happy to sell some more if the bull markets continues at the same pace like before.
To answer to the question of many. I would not buy at these levels. These levels are not good for my taste. Of course, some people that will jump in the market now, will take a very high short risk, but in the end they will be saved by the market in the coming years. All I am saying, is that smart money prefers buying during the discount period.


* BTC update.png (326.51 kB, 2144x1346 - viewed 513 times.)
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 07:19:52 AM by arbusers » Logged
atilla9
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atilla9

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #126 on: January 13, 2021, 07:54:18 AM »
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Thank you. Great analysis as usual.

At 33xxx I rebought 25% from sold at 41xxx. I'm going to buy another 25% at 26-27xxx.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #127 on: January 13, 2021, 08:01:33 AM »
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Thank you. Great analysis as usual.

At 33xxx I rebought 25% from sold at 41xxx. I'm going to buy another 25% at 26-27xxx.

Congrats on the successful trade. For now, I will need significant discounts to buy back part of our portfolio.
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atilla9
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atilla9

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #128 on: January 13, 2021, 08:33:48 AM »
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Thank you.

I consider your strategy very reasonable. In a long term, it will give more fruits. Patience is the key.

Also, it is important to feel 'good' about taken decisions.

Best of luck with your tradings.
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cigo
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #129 on: January 14, 2021, 08:07:55 AM »
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1. On a macro level, we are still within a cycle that is expected to top in the coming years. Ideally this should happen between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023.
Till now we sew top prices(end of bul markets) aproximatly after 18 months of every halving. Last 2 top prices wher at the end of year. Every cicly is a litle longer, so bull run under this can extend to 2022. But can you explain why you think bull market can end at 2022  or even at end of 2023
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #130 on: January 14, 2021, 09:55:49 AM »
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As you see, our strategy is emotionless and we constantly take advantage of the market at every phase. If it goes down, we buy more. If it goes up we sell more.
So if the market does us the favour to bring the top earlier than we expect, we will welcome it and we will be very thankful.
However, if the market tops during 2021, this top will be shorter compared with a market toping in 2023, simply because it will be more overextended from the fair price of BTC.
No cycle is identical with the previous one and if you have a look at the price diagram you will see that one top from another are creating longer cycles. The last cycle was indeed a 4 years one. But why should we believe that we will copy the last cycle and not the previous one? What is it that makes the last cycle the standard? I dont see any reason, with the exception of the self-fulfilling prophecy to come true simply because everyone believes in it.
Again, if BTC tops in 2021, we will welcome it and we will take advantage of it.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #131 on: January 17, 2021, 04:44:22 PM »
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This time I sold some of my position to cash and some to purchase Chainlinks (LINK).

This is to inform you that I sold part of my LINK portfolio to fiat. That was a 110% performance within a period of 20 days, but the compound performance for my LINK assets is around 90%. I feel blessed really. I would love to sell them for BTC, but at current prices any purchase would be close to madness.
I will not get into details about the LINK portfolio and I will not provide any analysis on this altcoin here, since I mentioned it briefly in the first place.
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #132 on: January 20, 2021, 01:45:32 PM »
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The reason why I selected a bigger chunk is because I expect 40k$ to be an important obstacle, if anything can be characterised as obstacle, under these specific circumstances.

Why did you think so?
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apoel81
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #133 on: January 20, 2021, 02:07:56 PM »
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This time I sold some of my position to cash and some to purchase Chainlinks (LINK).

This is to inform you that I sold part of my LINK portfolio to fiat. That was a 110% performance within a period of 20 days, but the compound performance for my LINK assets is around 90%. I feel blessed really. I would love to sell them for BTC, but at current prices any purchase would be close to madness.
I will not get into details about the LINK portfolio and I will not provide any analysis on this altcoin here, since I mentioned it briefly in the first place.

Another excellent trade. Wish i knew at that point what LINK was.

Thought LINK was a stock and couldn't bought it  ;D
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #134 on: January 20, 2021, 02:46:44 PM »
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I have good hopes for LINK as it shows an outstanding resilience against BTC. However, this is a relative new cryptocurrency and the data we have is not enough to provide solid analysis yet. That is why we are basing our thinking in its resilience, and not the RSI or the technicals. LINK is able to provide the best and the worse at any time. That is why we keep a very small part of portfolio in LINK.
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