Long on BTC (page 10)

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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #135 on: January 22, 2021, 08:02:22 AM »
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I would like to update you guys on where we stand with BTC. But before that, I will start by describing (once again) our framework and what we have achieved so far.

In investing (and speculating) we must stay emotionless in front of the market. We must not let ourselves get carried away by the emotions that what is perceived by others as a reality creates. Our reality is data, analysis and strategy. As we said several times, our actions demand a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.

During these last months we observed the frenzy for cryptos once again. This frenzy brought the price of BTC at 42000$. We sold 50% of our position in various stages, and we sold more of this position at the upper band as a result of a DDCA selling strategy. The developments of the BTC price confirmed that we did very well.

Now we find our selves in a crosspoint, where BTC is offered at a discount price and we have enough firing power to buy back these BTC we sold, with a substantial profit. But before doing this, we need to see what the big picture of the cycle is.

As I said several times, when in doubt, zoom out, and this brings us to the weekly diagram of BTC. What we see here is that the RSI of BTC went up to 94, a level never seen before since the early days of the crypto market in 2013-14. That was a very strong signal for us to sell, and not to follow the sirens. Odysseus was remembered once again.

If this frenzy was to continue, we would meet the top of the cycle in a couple of weeks. We explained several times why we didn’t want that to happen. Have a look at our previous posts. Now the market is taking a deep breath and ever breath is adding more market maturity. We always have to take into account, and always respect the maturity of the market. This is a market in its infancy that matures minute after minute.

The price now goes down and our favourite index, RSI, is also falling down. RSI has the ability to take away the noise, and present a market sentiment based on data, and not on what Bloomberg, CNBC and every YouTuber believes. At this point, we would like to see RSI to continue going down, offer the breaths and the market maturity to BTC, before we see it coming back stronger than before.


BTC.png


So we are targeting a 60 level RSI as you can see in our diagram. When it goes there, we will need to re-evaluate our position. Maybe we buy some more if the price is according to our tastes, or maybe we restructure our portfolio a little bit if the other coins we invest outperform BTC massively. This will be a decision point.

At these prices, I wouldn’t even dare to think buying BTC, or any other crypto, but who knows, maybe the market offers us a discount price to jump in once again. This market matures very fast.

I hope you do make some money out of this and my posts are not in vain. Once again, I have to stress that information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.



* BTC.png (508.08 kB, 2268x1474 - viewed 599 times.)
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Goojybooboo
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #136 on: January 22, 2021, 11:51:11 AM »
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Thank you very much for your analysis and your insight. Congratulations for your remarkable results so far.

Is market maturity our friend. I find it difficult to understand the market maturity, but to me the market maturity is only adding value, and it lifts technical barriers upwards all the time. So a price of 20.000$ today, might be the same like 23.000$ after a month. Do I get it right?

Thank you.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #137 on: January 23, 2021, 04:56:03 AM »
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The perfection of technical analysis.

In the following graph, we see a denied effort of BTC to return back to the normality of the triangle. Even though this kind of triangles are a very strong continuation pattern, I expect a lot of hard time for BTC very soon. Maybe it is a matter of some minutes/hours.
But at the same time, this pattern might create a very nice buying opportunity at discount prices.

Perfection.png

@Goojybooboo.

Your questions are very good and they show that you indeed understand our analysis. I will comment later on during the day, when I fid some time.


* Perfection.png (585.27 kB, 2270x1478 - viewed 513 times.)
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #138 on: January 23, 2021, 03:57:19 PM »
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Is market maturity our friend. I find it difficult to understand the market maturity, but to me the market maturity is only adding value, and it lifts technical barriers upwards all the time. So a price of 20.000$ today, might be the same like 23.000$ after a month. Do I get it right?

Yes, market maturity is our friend, especially during a bull market like this.
And yes, market maturity is moving the goalposts day by day upwards for as long as we are in a bull market. Thus, we need to think twice before we sell our assets, and always choose higher and higher prices, because what is considered as an unreal price today, will be very reasonable in the near future.
Thank you for your good words.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #139 on: January 25, 2021, 04:40:17 PM »
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Denied for the 2nd time.

Denied 2nd time.png

What do you think it happens next?


* Denied 2nd time.png (397.56 kB, 2272x1476 - viewed 341 times.)
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Alfa1234
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #140 on: January 25, 2021, 05:23:41 PM »
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IMHO a retest of the 32k or 30k support after which it could try to retest this level of the triangle, with a high likelyhood of breaking through this time as a 3rd retest very often leads to a break. 
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #141 on: January 26, 2021, 04:47:01 PM »
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Even though the formatted triangle is an obstacle for BTC to continue it path upwards, this is a very strong continuation pattern of the general trend. We are still in a bull run, and that means this triangle is implying that at some point the trend will continue.
But if we examine this type of triangles, we will see it is very common to brake down to a previous landmark, before coming back stronger than before to continue for new tops.

BTC.png

I tried to find the previous landmarks and documented them in the graph. To me, the most possible scenario is a move down to a place where bulls will have to confirm the bull market. We will need to have a confirmation from the weekly RSI as described above. BTC takes a big breath and it might offer one last buying chance.


* BTC.png (418.18 kB, 2276x1480 - viewed 256 times.)
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 04:48:34 PM by arbusers » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #142 on: January 29, 2021, 09:40:38 AM »
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Bit quicker than we thought, it seems the triangle has broken towards the upside already.
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cortomaltese
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cortomaltese

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #143 on: January 29, 2021, 10:18:24 AM »
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Elon Pump the great just changed his twitter bio into Bitcoin @elonmusk
Respect the pump! Elon shows the way ;)
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ilovethisforum
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #144 on: January 29, 2021, 10:28:25 AM »
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Elon Pump the great just changed his twitter bio into Bitcoin @elonmusk
Respect the pump! Elon shows the way ;)

All hail the King Elon!  ;D
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #145 on: January 29, 2021, 10:40:24 AM »
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I think Ray Dalio opening a separate fund for alt-CASH, as he calls it, is more important news than Elon changing his Twiter.
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ilovethisforum
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #146 on: January 29, 2021, 10:50:14 AM »
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I think Ray Dalio opening a separate fund for alt-CASH, as he calls it, is more important news than Elon changing his Twiter.

Indeed, the epic bull market on crypto is starting imo
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #147 on: January 29, 2021, 11:27:16 AM »
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I dont like Musk and his ways, but he creates frenzy in what he touches. Let's see what happens here.
The triangle is clearly broken.
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #148 on: January 29, 2021, 11:29:52 AM »
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I dont like Musk and his ways, but he creates frenzy in what he touches. Let's see what happens here.
The triangle is clearly broken.

Maybe we will see another chance to break the 40k barrier?
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #149 on: January 29, 2021, 11:37:24 AM »
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I dont like Musk and his ways, but he creates frenzy in what he touches. Let's see what happens here.
The triangle is clearly broken.

Maybe we will see another chance to break the 40k barrier?

Most probably we haven't see the end of the cycle yet. We do not pay attention on news, we only trust data and our diagrams. If we continue going up I will also continue selling positions in a DCA style.
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