Long on BTC (page 17)

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cigo
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cigo

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #240 on: March 03, 2021, 02:19:09 PM »
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Today's metrics: April the 15th.

Do your have any prediction what BTC dominance should be at the end of a bull market.. I know you spoke not below 40% this time. But can you also provid ethis data if you have
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #241 on: March 03, 2021, 02:29:58 PM »
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Today's dominance stands at 62.23%. Does it make any sense analysing it? Will this help us somehow understand when the cycle ends?
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #242 on: March 04, 2021, 05:13:58 AM »
+1

Today I will share probably the simplest graph you have ever seen for BTC. Like many other things in life, the simplest strategy is the one that works best and in this case I am following the via negativa.
The graph consists of just one line. But this line is rooted deeply in time since the inception of the BTC and it proves to be correct since day 1 of this cryptocurrency. That is why I consider this line as a very powerful one. A line that you can base your strategy on.

BTC simplest graph ever.png

However, because of the longevity of this line, we simply can't demand from it to respect even the last cent in price. We must accept there is a big margin in the price range. If you have a close look, you will see there are 2-3 times over the last years that we had quick breaches.
Now let's get to today's extrapolations. Of course these will be dubious, because we are talking about price discovery modes and future all time highs.
1. If we were to touch the line today, this would brings us at a price of $85000.
2. If we had to touch the line on April the 20th, which is a date close to the potential time of topping, this would bring us at a price of $96000.

You should not take these figures to the bank. The key take away here, is the maximum extend of a potential market top. A prudent investor should add a lot of margin when deciding his/her strategy.


* BTC simplest graph ever.png (380.25 kB, 2264x1428 - viewed 284 times.)
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cigo
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cigo

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #243 on: March 04, 2021, 06:17:14 AM »
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Today's dominance stands at 62.23%. Does it make any sense analysing it? Will this help us somehow understand when the cycle ends?
I think dominance is also one think to look at. More models we have, at more different data we look, easier is to decide when to sell. You have a dinamic date, when it will end, but if we look at diferent models like, google trend buy bitcoin, RSI, day end, BTC final dominance in this cycle,... more confident we can be if we will sell or not.
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #244 on: March 04, 2021, 12:13:37 PM »
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If this line is truth, in 2030 BTC will cost 10M dollars.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #245 on: March 04, 2021, 01:01:02 PM »
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If this line is truth, in 2030 BTC will cost 10M dollars.

Bring you self at the end of 2012 with BTC price at $11. That line would show you $11.000 at the mid 2019. Which of these 2 do you find more difficult to believe?
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #246 on: March 04, 2021, 01:42:59 PM »
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If this line is truth, in 2030 BTC will cost 10M dollars.

Bring you self at the end of 2012 with BTC price at $11. That line would show you $11.000 at the mid 2019. Which of these 2 do you find more difficult to believe?

Both.

Do you have confidence in this prediction?

In this case, when this bubble crash, i will buy 4-5 BTC and leave this job in ten years.
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Trevorr
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #247 on: March 04, 2021, 02:39:05 PM »
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BTC became too big, it has capitalization 1trillion, the 500 biggest companies together 30 trillion. How can you expect it can be about the same? Where would the money come from? And there are many more cryptos, which could attract money.
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Wolfie
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #248 on: March 04, 2021, 02:43:02 PM »
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BTC became too big, it has capitalization 1trillion, the 500 biggest companies together 30 trillion. How can you expect it can be about the same? Where would the money come from? And there are many more cryptos, which could attract money.

You are right, 10m for btc is impossible. But 500k for btc looks ok, since the gold market cap is 11 trillion.
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Trevorr
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #249 on: March 04, 2021, 02:50:16 PM »
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BTC became too big, it has capitalization 1trillion, the 500 biggest companies together 30 trillion. How can you expect it can be about the same? Where would the money come from? And there are many more cryptos, which could attract money.

You are right, 10m for btc is impossible. But 500k for btc looks ok, since the gold market cap is 11 trillion.

real market cap for gold is hard to determine, there is so much gold which will be never traded as gold(personasl things, things with historical value...) The real market is about 2-3 trillion. There is some similarities with lost BTC.
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Wolfie
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #250 on: March 04, 2021, 03:06:35 PM »
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That is not the case. Market cap is calculated by all above the ground gold reserves x gold price. Jewelry gold is calculated in this 11 trillion just by its gold value and not sentimental value or something else. There can be a little difference because of lost gold but its not much.
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #251 on: March 04, 2021, 03:32:25 PM »
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10M per BTC (the value that the graph shows), means twice the PIB of the world.

Sometimes i think, that one day, everyone will wake up with BTC's value at Zero.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #252 on: March 04, 2021, 03:56:35 PM »
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I am wondering where you see these 10m BTC price in the chart above.
Every model useless until proved useful. You can never base your action only on 1 criterion.
Let's get the end of this market cycle first and then we will think about the next cycle(s).
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #253 on: March 04, 2021, 04:02:35 PM »
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I am just enlarging the graph to 2030.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #254 on: March 06, 2021, 04:18:54 PM »
+2

Today's metrics show the end of the cycle at 11th of April.

I believe I will be able to identify the market top plus or minus some days. Of course we will be here to alert our members, at least those who want to be alerted.
But what is puzzling my mind, is the nature and the length of the next cycle. By applying classic TA and EWT, we could have a good picture of the next cycle. However, the first top of 2014 is creating a mess in all analysis. It makes all data and calculations get crazy.
Should we consider it as an end of a cycle, or should we consider it as an important top right before the real end of the cycle later that year.
Actually, if this scenario is repeated in the next cycle, it will create immense opportunities for those who have the nerves to exploit it.

BTC end cycle.png


* BTC end cycle.png (313.88 kB, 1674x1056 - viewed 572 times.)
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