Software: suspicious game activities

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Gallox
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Gallox

Software: suspicious game activities
« on: June 09, 2020, 10:22:33 PM »

Hello guys,

I am looking for a software, that delivers me information about suspicous activities on the sport market. For example if high volume of money is spent on a specific outcome or if an odd dropps significantly.

Does anyone of you know which software or website could be good for me?


A person told me, that he does that with Betburger. Can you agree with that?


Thanks for your help! :)
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rizapow
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2020, 03:21:43 PM »

Not that i am aware of either it must been custom build listening tool
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arctrading
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2020, 05:45:04 PM »

Hello guys,

I am looking for a software, that delivers me information about suspicous activities on the sport market. For example if high volume of money is spent on a specific outcome or if an odd dropps significantly.

Does anyone of you know which software or website could be good for me?


A person told me, that he does that with Betburger. Can you agree with that?


Thanks for your help! :)

Many "tipsters" for fixed matches use betburger and their experience mainly to spot such games. So basically valuebetting with big drops on asia and taking advantage on super soft books. Anyways there is a bot called "Spikey soccer bot" from bettingdev which monitors BF markets. Altough u need to have it worked on your pc all them time and if you dont have good specs then its quite pita. But you can always either pay them or some other developer to build a tool like that for you which monitors odds movements from outside source. Altough i would say the cost of it is atleast 300-500 monthly plus dev. fee.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2020, 11:45:52 PM »

I am looking for a software, that delivers me information about suspicous activities on the sport market. For example if high volume of money is spent on a specific outcome or if an odd dropps significantly.

Does anyone of you know which software or website could be good for me?
  • You may do a google search on "dropping odds" and there you will see some websites that offer this in a very simple version.
  • You may use a value/arb service in order to detect significant high volume odd drops, as suggested by the person you mentioned. When sharp or exchange odds drop significantly, that will create arbs and value bets for a particular match which will catch your attention.
  • You may do it yourself or ask someone to use the api from betfair (one-time activation fee) or pinnacle (free) in order to construct a program that runs continuously.
  • You may do it yourself or ask someone to construct screen scrapers that monitor bookmakers or odds sites.
It seems that there are vast possibilities, so why is it not widely used by many to detect "suspicious activities"? Because a suspicious activity is very well hidden. If a suspicious activity was obvious, bookmakers around the world would immediately close the suspicious markets based on their common "suspicious activity alerter service".

Some reasons why odds may drop significantly:
  • A rich person just placed a large bet at the exchange just for the excitement.
  • Match is fixed.
  • Someone is placing bets at the respected sharps as a way of manipulating the market price, such that much bigger bets can be placed at a more favorable price on the other outcome at other bookmakers with higher liquidity.
  • News just came out that a player on the other team is injured.
  • A bookmaker is value trapping, forcing arbing activity and the other side to drop.
So if you want to search for suspicious activity (number 2) you may find yourself a bit clueless with all this noise.

I am currently studying O/U patterns in soccer, not with the intent to find suspicious activity, but more in general to get wiser on the soccer O/U markets. It is a supervised learning proces that hopefully can lead to profitable betting via these patterns. It is most likely not possible to reach to a firm conclusion, but the reward is high, so it is worth the time. It could be nice to elaborate and exchange ideas about this subject here in this forum with the other members.

Gallox, unless you have a very firm idea and knowledge about how these odd drops and high volume bets should be interpreted, I think it will be very hard to use it to your advantage right away. This answer is not meant to discourage. It's just realism based on my own experience. You might also just disregard this comment and go heads on and experience for yourself, after all there's always a chance of discovering something useful. Good luck.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 09:13:22 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
MalleMax
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2020, 10:29:31 AM »

It give a tool called SPIKEY from Bettindev. SPIKEY searches all Betfair markets for conspicuous volumes.
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MisterRodriguez
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2020, 11:51:35 AM »

Hey vida blue ,great post,however i uttlery struggle to understand the 5th point value trapping,probably you ve decomposed you theory in past threads

but if you can expand here/elucidate me i would much appreciate it

Bookies call arbers between commas(above betfair price) to mitigate risk /liability on a game,but not sure what you mean with that term

Best Regards
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MisterRodriguez
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2020, 12:01:44 PM »

ty
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 12:05:27 PM by MisterRodriguez » Logged
VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2020, 12:21:16 PM »

Hey vida blue ,great post,however i uttlery struggle to understand the 5th point value trapping,probably you ve decomposed you theory in past threads

but if you can expand here/elucidate me i would much appreciate it

Bookies call arbers between commas(above betfair price) to mitigate risk /liability on a game,but not sure what you mean with that term

Best Regards
Among the 5 points in my answer, this is probably the most speculative one. It is only a hypothesis that a value trap may move the market odds. In fact, the whole concept behind "value trap" is something which isn't well established. There are many assumptions. You may do a keyword search for "value traps" in this forum and you'll find more discussions on this matter.

But the idea behind why it may move odds is the following: let's suppose that a single bookmaker has exclusive knowledge that 4-5 key players from the away team in a Polish 3rd division match won't be playing. This match is also offered on some illiquid asian/sharp markets. The single bookmaker increases the odds on the away team for ½ an hour in order to attract volume, which creates a blinking arb in some odds services. The odds at the single bookmaker remain constant, while the odds on the home team (winning side) gradually get lower until there is no arb anymore. This may be interpreted as "suspicious activity", but it is really just someone in the market who has a very firm call on what the odds should be.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2020, 12:40:14 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
MisterRodriguez
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MisterRodriguez

Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2020, 01:36:17 PM »

Makes sense

However i assume is somewhat an infrequent move and risky one and only ocurring in minor leagues
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2020, 09:40:20 PM »

Basically if you want to find "fixed" games then you must have grow some experience. You can pay for odds feed and then build a software which notifies you when sudden drop is on and then trying to find a reason or you can do it manually by the use of experience. Def a program would be more helpful than manual spotting but not everyone can pay avg 400 per month for odds feed. Some use TX odds, some other, free ones. In the end, you must know the leagues, teams and preferably names who are involved on fixed games. Like referees, players etc. Most of those friendlies which you saw during corona were fixed. I personally have a list of teams and leagues who had fixes in the past and on what results etc. Also player names and stuff like that(because i watch csgo also i know what player possible uses cheats or what teams threw matches in the past).
So in the end, software will help you but you must do youre own due dilligenc and know the "fixy" teams.

Regarding with odds movements then most of those fixes are clearly seen either on BF or other Asians. So do your homework and get some experience :)
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MisterRodriguez
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Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2020, 07:34:31 AM »

so you are actively sharing a strategy to tail fixed games,basically criminals who reduce the pie for everyone .sharps,bookies and even indirectly rec players

get the hell out of here peasant
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Software: suspicious game activities
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2020, 05:28:38 PM »

so you are actively sharing a strategy to tail fixed games,basically criminals who reduce the pie for everyone .sharps,bookies and even indirectly rec players

get the hell out of here peasant

I have not shared nothing here what would give away the edge ors. Nothing direct whatsoever. One could get all this information online where Sportradar FDS is mentioned. If you do this for living then one must be stupid not to notice those kind of suspicious" games unless they are pure price bettors  and disregard all the fundamental infos :)
Actually i must disagree with you regarding with "criminals who reduce the pie for everyone". Most fixes are made by players themselves whatsoever. Hence the reason why they get unnoticed. Yes there are big  syndicates who pay everyone to arrange those games on. But, heres where you get it wrong. Match fixing has been as long as betting itself so its kinda part of the industry. Also the reason why matches are fixed is directly associated with players not getting enough and therefore need to find other means to make extra. Why else theres huge amount of fixes on low-payd teams?  So as you can see, im not the problem nor the peasant. The problem is money. One side, players dont get paid enough or no salary at all due to problems with clubs etc and on the other side, the greed of bookmakers to offer such matches. I mean why the hell bookmaker would need to offer bets on Tajikistan U19 games for example  is out of my mind.  So if you dislike the word "fixed matches" then please, dont read this thread.
GL!
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